We love talking about NFL awards, even when it’s ridiculously early to do so.
Checking in on each of the major player awards after the first month of the season is a fun exercise, even if it’s a little silly and each award race is bound to change a lot. But being the favorite for a major award after a month isn’t exactly a bad thing.
Using the BetMGM odds, let’s take a look at how each of the major awards look after four weeks of the NFL season:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes still favored, somehow
Mahomes is the best player in the world, but it’s a little strange why he’s favored at BetMGM to win MVP.
Mahomes is off to a mediocre start, with six touchdowns and five interceptions. He has an underwhelming passer rating of 89.7. Yet he’s still the favorite to win MVP at +240. That seems strange until you remember the recent history that MVPs almost always go to a quarterback from a No. 1 seed and the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0. That simple and boring formula still points to Mahomes, even if it doesn’t make a lot of sense based on how he has played. And it’s questionable if Mahomes’ numbers will get much better, considering injuries to Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown and Isiah Pacheco around him.
Josh Allen has played better than Mahomes, and he’s right behind him in the MVP odds at +260. If a vote was taken today it would be egregious if Mahomes got any votes over Allen, no matter what recent voting history or the odds say. We’ll see if the Buffalo Bills can get the No. 1 seed that has been a requirement for MVP voters for most of this century. Would voters break their pattern and give the award to Allen if the Bills are, say, the No. 2 or 3 seed? We’ll see. Lamar Jackson is third in the MVP odds and bit back at 10-to-1.
Realistically Allen has a significant lead in the race, but nothing that someone like C.J. Stroud, Jared Goff or Sam Darnold (or maybe even Jayden Daniels?) couldn’t overcome if their team’s record is good enough at the end.
Offensive Player of the Year: It’s Saquon Barkley, but Derrick Henry is gaining
A couple of running backs in new places lead the OPOY race. Too bad the Dallas Cowboys couldn’t afford either one in the offseason, right?
Barkley has been really good for the Philadelphia Eagles, with 520 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in four games. He has been the key player in both Eagles wins. He’s the rightful favorite for OPOY at +400.
Derrick Henry has made a push up the board with two huge weeks. He has 350 rushing yards the past two weeks and the Baltimore Ravens look like they’ve discovered how to use him. Which, practically speaking, is to get him the ball as often as possible. He’s at +550 odds, while Justin Jefferson is the other player at shorter than 11-to-1 odds, at +600.
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt having another big year
Watt is doing what he always does for the Pittsburgh Steelers, making big plays for a defense that carried the team to a 3-0 record. He’s the favorite for DPOY at +325.
Aidan Hutchinson is an interesting name behind Watt. The Detroit Lions defensive end leads the NFL with 6.5 sacks, but there are some questions. He had 4.5 of those sacks in one game, but it was a loss. Also, the Lions defense hasn’t been great yet, and could DPOY go to a player on an average defense? Maybe. Hutchinson’s play is certainly worthy of consideration.
A name to watch could be Kansas City Chiefs lineman Chris Jones. He’s coming off a two-sack game, he’s the key to a fantastic Chiefs defense, has never won DPOY and has the ability to dominate for a long stretch. Way down the odds is Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II (66-to-1) who is having a dominant start to the season without enough recognition yet. At some point his great play will start to get noticed.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels a huge early favorite
Daniels is the biggest early favorite for any award. He’s -150 at BetMGM. Daniels being he favorite is indisputable, but let’s also not forget Malik Nabers.
Nabers is second in the odds at +375. He is having a great start for the New York Giants, leading the NFL with 35 catches for 386 yards and three touchdowns. But if a quarterback is going to play like Daniels has, a non-quarterback has virtually no chance. Ask Puka Nacua, who set records but lost to C.J. Stroud last season.
Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. are both +700 to win OROY, which says to not give up on their chances despite some ups and downs through their first month in the NFL. But as of now it’s Daniels’ award to lose.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: It’s still wide open
This defensive rookie class wasn’t that strong, and it’s not surprising nobody has stood out after four weeks.
Los Angeles Rams defensive lineman Jared Verse is the favorite at +300. He is off to a good start. Laiatu Latu of the Indianapolis Colts is second in the odds (+500) but aside from one huge strip sack against the Chicago Bears he hasn’t done much yet. That’s his only sack, and he has just three tackles. That he’s the second favorite says something about the lack of an impact from the class on that side of the ball.
Coach of the Year: Kevin O’Connell, obviously
Nobody is voting on awards after four weeks, but if they did O’Connell would probably win Coach of the Year unanimously. He has done a remarkable job for the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings. He’s the rightful betting favorite at +200. Mike Macdonald of the Seattle Seahawks and Dan Quinn of the Washington Commanders are next at +650 and they’ve done well too, but O’Connell should probably be an even stronger favorite at this point.
If the Vikings keep up anywhere near their early-season pace, there won’t be much intrigue with this award.
Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold lead
There was a movement by the Associated Press to reinforce that the spirit of this award should be to reward a player who overcame some adversity, not just career decline. That probably means Darnold isn’t going to win, but we’ll see how voters treat the award. Darnold is the co-favorite with Rodgers, who missed most of last season with a torn Achilles, at +175. Joe Burrow, coming off wrist surgery, is next at +650.
Every season this is a strange award because everyone has their own criteria for it. That makes it hard to predict.
