Ohio State’s unfettered 2024 dominance continued unabated with a commanding 35-7 victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Buckeyes (5-0, 2-0 in Big Ten) winning by an average scoring margin of 39 points (#1 in FBS) while ranking top-10 nationally on both sides of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The only statistical area of weakness is OSU allowing a 64% completion rate, which ranks 92nd in FBS. However, Ohio State is facing the fewest number of deep pass attempts in the country, with just 5.1% of pass attempts defended going 20+ yards downfield. The Buckeyes are in the midst of a tough mid-season stretch against @ Oregon, vs. Nebraska and @ Penn State.
Oregon (5-0, 2-0 in Big Ten) is still undefeated despite not looking their best in their first two games against Idaho and Boise State. Since then, they have destroyed Oregon State, UCLA and Michigan State by a combined score of 114-37 and have re-established themselves as a program to be feared in Big Ten play. While the Ducks’ offense ranks 9th in success rate and 7th in marginal efficiency, they are not stretching the field, as is evidenced by their 6.3% explosive play rate (85th) or finishing drives averaging 4.35 points per scoring opportunity (62nd). Defensively their secondary is excellent, but OU is certifiably soft on the ground ranking 99th in EPA/rush, 87th in yards per successful rush and 114th in power success rate.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Ohio State @ Oregon live
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Date: Saturday, October 12th, 2024
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Time: 7:30 PM EST
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Site: Autzen Stadium
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City: Eugene, Oregon
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TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
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Game odds for Ohio State @ Oregon – Week 6
The latest odds as of Thursday night:
This line actually opened at -1 Oregon in preseason trading, before flipping sides and steaming up to the current -3/3.5 Ohio State when the market reopened this week. The moneyline opened at -162 OSU this week and is available anywhere from -145-to-155, while Oregon is anywhere from +118 to +135. The total has risen from 51.5 points to a market-high of 54.5 at time of publishing.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes points will be aplenty in this contest:
“Oregon is 1-4 ATS and struggled to stop Boise State and RB Ashton Jeanty from moving the ball with impunity against them. Oregon will need to play a perfect game to beat the Buckeyes, but their defensive line hasn’t shown the physicality to slow down Quinshon Judkins/TreVeyon Henderson. I am laying the -3.5 points and taking the Buckeyes.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
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Ashton Jeanty +5000, +200
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Travis Hunter +3500, +300
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Cam Ward +20000, +500
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Jalen Milroe +800, +1100
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Quinn Ewers +800, +2000
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Jaxson Dart +2000, +2200
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Nico Iamaleava +1100, +3500
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Arch Manning +10000, +15000
Highest Ticket%
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Travis Hunter 16.9%
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Nico Iamaleava 10.4%
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Cam Ward 7.5%
Highest Handle%
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Travis Hunter 21.8%
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Cam Ward 9.7%
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Jalen Milroe 9.4%
Biggest Liability
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Travis Hunter
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Nico Iamaleava
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Cam Ward
Quarterback matchup for Ohio State @ Oregon
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Ohio State: While he imported multiple impact transfers, HC Ryan Day made upgrading the QB position his #1 priority in the portal this offseason. Kansas State transplant QB Will Howard got the call and has picked up OC Chip Kelly’s offense very quickly. Howard passed his first major test of the season by completing 21-of-25 passes for 205 yards and four touchdowns against the vaunted Iowa defense. He carries a 122.7 NFL passer rating and 79.6 PFF passing grade into this week’s marquee matchup and will have to continue his high-level of play if OSU intends to keep pace with Oregon’s potent offense.
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Oregon: Dillon Gabriel embarks on his sixth and final (we think?) collegiate campaign and has amassed a staggering 16,321 passing yards and 136-to-29 ratio in his illustrious career. He’s completing 77% of his passes (#1 in FBS) for 8.6 YPA and an 11-to-3 ratio for the undefeated Ducks, but his 6.5 ADOT is the 4th-lowest average target depth in the country. The short-range passing game emphasis accounts for Oregon’s uncharacteristically low 13% explosive pass rate that ranks 114th in FBS. It will be interesting to see if Oregon can stress Ohio State’s elite defense vertically.
Ohio State and Oregon trends & recent stats
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Oregon is currently 1-4 ATS and 3-2 to the Under. Despite beating opponents by an average of 18 points, their “cover” PPG sits underwater at -8.1 which ranks 118th nationally.
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Ducks DE Jordan Burch leads the team with 5.0 sacks and is tied for the team lead with 7.0 havoc plays. CB1 Jabbar Muhammad has allowed just five completions on 15 targets (33%) with 6 PBU and a 40% forced incompletion rate.
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Superstar freshman WR Jeremiah Smith leads the team in receiving yardage (453) and touchdown catches (6) while running 36% of his routes downfield. It’s clear to see why he is considered the best high school receiving prospect since Julio Jones.
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Ohio State’s defense has become a top-flight unit under the tutelage of DC Jim Knowles, ranking 2nd in FBS with a 12.1% sack rate. The Buckeyes have been tough to beat over the top with an 8.0% explosive pass rate allowed (2nd), and just 5.1% of the passes they’ve faced traveling 20+ air-yards.
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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