EDMONTON — The first game of the year is one day closer than yesterday.
The excitement around the Edmonton Oilers and their fans is steadily building. Photos of the players at informal skates is building up the hype machine in Oil Country.
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What’s even more exciting for Oilers fans is the Calgary Flames reportedly signing Tyson Barrie to a PTO. Why is it exciting?
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Because it opens things up for the Oilers. There is a clearer path to a trade, especially if that PTO translates into a one-year deal.
There are two players on the Flames blue line that could be a huge addition to the Oilers. The likelihood of a trade is more likely with Barrie in the mix. Let’s look at those two right-handed defenders to see which one is a better fit for the team.
Rasmus Andersson
Rasmus Andersson is a solid two-way defender. According to David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period, Andersson is one of the players the Flames are currently willing to listen to trade offers on.
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Andersson played 78 games in 2023-24, averaging 23:50 of time on ice every game. He scored 39 points, only eight of those on the power play. He led the Flames defenders in power play time on ice with 2:21 per game.
Any defender the Oilers acquire doesn’t need to be a power play specialist. They need more players who are excellent at scoring at 5×5. Andersson scored 30 points at even strength, which is very impressive for a defenseman.
Andersson has two-years left on his $4.55-million deal. If the Flames retain 50% of that salary, it makes Andersson a very interesting option for the Oilers.
However, he is not the ideal option for the Oilers to consider.
Mackenzie Weegar
MacKenzie Weegar can do it all. Last year was a breakout campaign where he produced 52 points in 82 games. The 30-year-old defender played 22:56 a night. He was also named in the Pagnotta report that I mentioned above with Andersson.
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His offense was certainly impressive. Weegar contributed 15 of his 52 points on the power play. That leaves him with 35 even strength points (he had two shorthanded points). This isn’t the only area that Weegar has a leg up on Andersson.
PuckIQ is a great resource for looking at different advanced metrics. Dangerous fenwick for percentage (DFF%) is something I value when evaluating defenders. It’s essentially Corsi, but taken a step further. It takes into consideration how dangerous a shot is based on the type of shot, location and distance from the net. It does not factor in blocked shots or shots that miss the net.
Weegar vs. Andersson
Only four Flames defensemen faced Elite competition for more than 150 total minutes. Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, Andersson and Weegar all played against other teams’ best players the most. Tanev and Hanifin played the last month on different teams.
Weegar played against Elite competition the most (523 minutes) and had the best results (48 DFF%). Additionally, Andersson played the second most (478 minutes) and had the worst results of the four (42.9%).
Of the 11 defensemen who played at least 20 games with the Flames, Weegar was fourth in overall DFF% with 50.4. The only defenders with a higher DFF% were Daniil Miromanov (20 Games), Nikita Zadorov (21 Games) and Tanev (56 Games). Andersson ranked ninth with an overall DFF% of 48.3%.
Their results against middle of the lineup competition level the playing field. There is only 0.5 DFF% separating the two defenders. Weegar played 13 minutes more against middle competition than Andersson.
Biggest Downside to Weegar
The biggest obstacle in acquiring Weegar would be his contract. He has four more years left on a deal paying him $6.25-million a season. Trading for him would involve at least the Flames retaining 50% of his salary. They would have to entice a third team to retain 50% to bring his deal down from $3.125 to $1.56-million.
It’s not an impossible deal to make, but it might be a necessity for the cap-strapped Oilers.
One way or another, both players would help the Oilers in some capacity. However, with his better offensive numbers and better results against elite competition, I’d give the edge to Weegar.
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