Patriots have NFL’s toughest 2024 schedule based on this metric originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The New England Patriots finished at the bottom of the AFC standings last season with a 4-13 record — their worst finish to a campaign since 1992.
The 2024 season could see the Patriots finish with an equally bad record or worse, and one of the primary reasons why is their schedule.
New England has a brutal regular season schedule. You could make a strong case that five of the Patriots’ first six opponents (Bengals, Jets, Dolphins, Texans, 49ers) will make the playoffs.
But just how challenging is the Patriots’ schedule in 2024?
The Athletic’s Mike Sando recently released his annual QB tiers column, where he ranks the league’s best quarterbacks based on votes from 50 executives and coaches.
Based on the results of this year’s QB tiers, the Patriots have the toughest schedule in the league. The Patriots face, on average, a Tier 2.27 QB per game.
They have three games against Tier 1 quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Josh Allen twice) and six games versus Tier 2 quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers twice, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy). They have six games versus Tier 3 quarterbacks (Tua Tagovailoa twice, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith and Caleb Williams).
There are eight Tier 4 quarterbacks (including Patriots starter Jacoby Brissett) and New England plays only two of them (Anthony Richardson and Will Levis). Richardson, if healthy, could easily play at a level above Tier 4.
Finishing with one of the five-worst records wouldn’t be the worst outcome for the Patriots. Getting a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft would be pretty valuable.
This roster is still devoid of elite talent, especially at wide receiver and the offensive line. The upcoming draft class is expected to be loaded with quality players at both positions. We could see six or seven wideouts go in the first round of the 2025 draft.
The upcoming season could be ugly at times for the Patriots, but as long as several young players — especially rookie quarterback Drake Maye — show meaningful improvement, then it could be considered as a successful campaign despite a lackluster record.
