The Cleveland Browns are in a difficult spot. Self-created? Yes. But difficult nonetheless.
When Monday brought another sexual assault accusation and civil lawsuit from Watson’s past — this one containing an alleged rape — it took the franchise back to an old public relations playbook that it hoped would be permanently shelved: Speak very little, keep things moving forward and remind everyone that due process will guide future words and actions.
A little over two years ago, that was enough for a portion of the Browns fan base. The organization had faith in Watson. His career had showcased the kind of special quarterback talent that had eluded the franchise for an eternity. And the legal process was running its course, seemingly pointing to some kind of resolution.
But something is different now. Watson has played 13 games for the Browns, and never really looked anything like what fans saw in his Houston Texans highlights. There have been injuries and inconsistency, fits and starts. Then the team was energized by its defense and led to the playoffs by a scrap-heap quarterback in Joe Flacco in the 2023 season. And now, Watson’s past is again on the franchise’s doorstep. The NFL is reviewing another very ugly complaint, and the league’s personal conduct policy is back in the spotlight, with a fresh round of questions and ramifications.
This whole thing is just beginning, but here are the three most pertinent questions …
Does Cleveland Browns ownership want to support Watson through this?
There are two avenues here. If the answer is yes — that they believe and back Watson in the same fashion as 2022 — then there’s really nothing to talk about from the team’s vantage. The Browns will ride it out as they did before, giving their quarterback the same support, resources, public relations help and paycheck to do his job. And whatever happens from a legal or league standpoint, they’ll go through that, with Watson guided by his legal team and the NFL Players Association, and the Browns guided by their in-house counsel and whoever else they choose to loop in.
If the answer is “maybe” or “no” — or changes to that — then this gets dicey.
This is what draws in the perspective of Watson’s performance, the remainder of his fully guaranteed $230 million contract, and whether ownership would ever weigh those two things when calculating its level of support (which has, to this point, been extremely strong). There’s also the element of optics in this kind of thing, too, which is why it’s very unlikely a money- or performance-driven change of heart or support would ever be acknowledged in any way publicly. It’s an awful look to ever let anyone think that a player’s football performance can alter how you feel about their culpability in a civil lawsuit or league investigation.
But make no mistake, this is an ownership-level moment. General manager Andrew Berry, head coach Kevin Stefanski and every other important person in the franchise can line up behind Watson again, but what really matters is where the Haslams stand.
Can Watson be suspended again under the personal conduct policy?
Right now, the answer to this is more of a debate than a definitive guarantee. The NFLPA has historically always fought against the suspension of players, so its answer is likely to curve toward that, the union’s potential rationale being that the latest lawsuit is something that should be considered as tied in to all of the others that led to Watson’s 11-game suspension. Basically, the argument would be that the latest Jane Doe lawsuit is being brought forth by the same lawyer (Tony Buzbee), stemming from the same time and includes sexual assault allegations that can be argued as similar to previous claims.
The league can disagree with all of those arguments, of course. And the fact that it has already come out and said it will review the complaint is suggestive that the NFL is at least open to considering this as something new and not covered up by a previous suspension. Like before, the league would have to conduct its own investigation, gather its own evidence and interviews, then make a decision based on what it believes is true and what it can defend in court. That’s likely where this will go if it ever gets to the point of another suspension.
Would Watson’s contract guarantees be subject to voiding if he’s suspended again?
I suspect this will be another question that would likely lead to some kind of courtroom fight if there is any ambiguity about it. Based on Watson’s contract, which was obtained by both myself and fellow senior writer Jori Epstein, there is a key clause that relates to future suspension. In essence, in the moment of execution of the contract, Watson had to have informed the Browns of anything that would have caused him to be suspended in the future. If he alerted the Browns to this prior to his extension, it would seem to make any voiding unlikely, even if he were to be suspended.
If Watson didn’t alert the Browns, there is a question about wiggle room in that language. At what point did Watson know about the allegations? If his stance is that the alleged assault never happened and it is not found to have happened in a court of law, how could he have ever alerted the Browns to something that he says never took place and that hasn’t been proven? And if he chooses to settle this lawsuit out of court, will that be determined to be an admission of guilt?
Those are three huge questions. And none of them have anything to do with Watson’s football performance, unless the Browns want that to be a factor in the answers. The fact that this is all a subject now, at a time when Watson is coming off a poor game and the fan base is white-knuckling over his start, is an example of the pitfalls of embracing Watson in the first place. But the Browns knew it. They went into this whole thing with their eyes open, likely knowing that there could always be something on the horizon that had nothing to do with football.
That’s the risk they took. This is the price they’re paying, no matter how this all turns out.
Now on to Week 1 of the QB Room …
5 throws that blew me away
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Dak Prescott’s stupidly accurate and feathery soft basket throw to CeeDee Lamb. On Lamb’s outside shoulder on the tightest of sidelines, over the head of Pro Bowl corner Denzel Ward.
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Baker Mayfield’s gutsy chemistry + confidence touchdown to a blanketed Mike Evans. A filthy connection that reminded me how much I’ve underrated Evans’ career and undersold Mayfield’s reclamation.
A tale of 2 Next Gen Stats passing charts
Every season, we harp on the ability — or inability — of some NFL quarterbacks to throw to any part of a field without fear. More often than not, these conversations end up focusing on the middle of the field because that’s where the higher EPA (Expected Points Added) metric resides. If you want a detailed explanation of why the middle of the field is so important, check out this excellent piece from SumerSports.
If you prefer simplicity, just think of it this way: For over a decade of measurement, the middle of the field is where more efficient offensive production resides for quarterbacks. There’s more space and a pass has a shorter distance to travel than when passes are thrown downfield shaded toward the sidelines.
The middle is also a more precarious place to attack because it generally takes more time for intermediate and deep routes to develop (which means holding the football longer) and it also goes into the kitchen of safeties (which means inviting more turnovers).
Now I present to you the two Next Gen Stats passing charts of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Justin Fields vs. the Atlanta Falcons, and Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts vs. the Green Bay Packers, which have generated the most feverish arguments on social media in Week 1. We know the recent narrative connected to Hurts, which has often chronicled his struggles throwing into the middle of the field since his breakout 2022 season. Now Fields is getting some of that treatment, pointing at the ocean of empty space in the middle of his passing chart in the Steelers’ season-opening win over the Falcons.
There is context missing in some of the arguments, of course. Consider two realities for Fields: First, he was a late and unexpected elevation into the starting lineup for the Steelers, which complicated the design of the offensive game plan; and second, he was facing two All-Pro safeties in Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III. That’s a phenomenally difficult draw for every quarterback in the league, let alone a guy who is still finding his way as a passer.
So what do you do? You tilt the play-calling away from danger. And if that works, you stick with it. That’s what the Steelers did. Fields stayed clean in the turnover department, which is the point of calling it that way. People arguing about what this chart means about him in the wake of success is absurd, especially given the realities of how it came together.
As for Hurts, the chart is a little concerning, largely because of the two mistakes that resulted in turnovers over the middle. It felt like a bit of an echo of his 2023 problems, especially later in the season. And this past week, he clearly trusted the left and right quadrants more following his first interception over the middle.
If the Eagles are looking for silver linings, it’s these two things: First, Hurts has played only one game for new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, so we still don’t realistically know where he’s at in the scheme; and second, Hurts used the middle of the field to his advantage at one point in the game, locking onto tight end Dallas Goedert and freezing the safety in the middle of the field … which allowed A.J. Brown to get open along the right sideline for an eventual 67-yard touchdown.
I’m sure defenses get a detailed report about Hurts’ struggles in the middle of the field. And I’m also sure they can get baited by Fields to make “hunting” mistakes if he uses that to his advantage.
Stock up/stock down
⬇️ Carolina Panthers’ Bryce Young
13-for-30, 161 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs; 4 rushes for 12 yards and 1 TD; 4 sacks
There is going to be a quick presumption by those who didn’t watch the game that it must have been the typical offensive line problems. This time, it looked more like a Bryce Young problem and maybe a game-calling problem more than anything else. Young appeared to screw up a protection call at the line that led to a free rusher and sack at one point. He missed some quicker open throws and generally looked shaken. I thought maybe they’d shorten the offense a bit to get the ball out of his hand and generate some confidence. That didn’t seem to be the case. All in all, it was a really rough start to the season and there’s reason to be concerned if it flows into Week 2 against the Los Angeles Chargers.
⬆️ New Orleans Saints’ Derek Carr
19-for-23, 200 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs; 2 rushes for 13 yards; 1 sack
Peak efficiency in an absolute beatdown of a 47-10 win over the Carolina Panthers. His numbers could have been gargantuan if the Saints hadn’t jumped out to a huge lead and then just run the football. Interestingly, the Saints led the league in pre-snap motion on their passing plays, at an 88% clip. Clearly, the Panthers couldn’t handle the complication, which made for an easy day for Carr. All three of his touchdown passes went for more than 10 air yards, so there wasn’t anything cheap. And his 59-yard touchdown bomb to Rashid Shaheed was sublime and on time.
⬇️ Tennessee Titans’ Will Levis
19-for-32, 127 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 4 rushes for 36 yards; 3 sacks
The goal was to get Levis playing more efficiently and accurately, which is probably why he rarely went further downfield than 10 yards, with limited success. His lone touchdown to tight end Chig Okonkwo could probably be classified as a 50-50 ball where he did the dirty work to help Levis out. The pick-6 late in the fourth quarter was a devastatingly bad throw, leading Levis to fall to his knees and hold his head on the play. This is not the kind of start that dispels any of the opinions that Levis is a weak link for the Titans.
⬆️ Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield
24-for-30, 289 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs; 3 rushes for 21 yards; 1 sack
His passer rating of 146.4 led the NFL in Week 1. I’m not sure any player had a better week than Mayfield, who came out stamping last season’s turnaround with a sledgehammer in the opener. He threw all over the field with total confidence, challenging the Washington Commanders’ secondary constantly. He looks like the best version of himself and didn’t seem to miss his former offensive coordinator Dave Canales. The only pause I have is that it was against Washington’s defense, which looks like it’s got a long rebuild ahead. But for one week, it was everything you could ask for as a Buccaneers fan.
⬇️ Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson
24-for-45, 169 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 5 rushes for 39 yards; 6 sacks
I definitely could have put New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones here. But Watson is commanding a better team with much higher expectations, especially heading into this season. To be fair, he was missing both of his starting tackles and dynamic running back Nick Chubb … and wideout Amari Cooper dropped what could have been a deep touchdown pass. That completion would have likely taken Watson out of this slot. But Watson also created plenty of his own problems, missing open players and not looking remotely confident in any way. His defenders will continue to blame others, but it remains bothersome that this offense looked light-years better with Joe Flacco at the controls, even with Flacco’s penchant for making a few big mistakes each game. And the “off-field stuff” still hasn’t gone away, years later.
⬆️ Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen
18-for-23, 232 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 9 rushes for 39 yards and 2 TDs; 2 sacks
Allen came back from a 17-3 deficit against the Arizona Cardinals to win. His passing chart touches pretty much every area of the field, which is a good sign, given the remixed cast of wideouts. He also didn’t really utilize the tight ends in this game, which makes his last three quarters of play exceptional given the way he operated with efficiency. His fourth-quarter rushing touchdown was one of his typical star moments. Maybe the only fear coming out of this one is that he took some of the chances with his body that seem to be a part of his construction as a player. He may never get away from that. But when it’s good, it’s extremely good.
Odds and ends
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All kinds of weirdness in Aaron Rodgers’ first complete game with the New York Jets. He completed passes to only two wideouts — Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Also, he’s been the definition of a slow starter for a while now. If you throw out the four-snap torn Achilles opener in 2023, Rodgers has now (badly) lost his past three season openers where he played the majority of the game. All three were road games. There was the 32-19 loss at the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, and two while playing for the Green Bay Packers: a 23-7 loss at the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 and a 38-3 loss at the New Orleans Saints in 2021. In those three losses, Rodgers managed to throw only one touchdown against four interceptions. Thousand-yard stare, anyone?
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Pre-snap motion continues to be a promising staple. The top 10 heavy-usage teams all had above-average-to-good days on offense: the San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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The clip of Marvin Harrison Jr. running wide open with his hand held up — only to be completely missed by quarterback Kyler Murray late in the loss to Buffalo — is rough to watch. The three targets for Harrison were also shocking for two guys who seemed to have a good preseason rhythm between them. I highly doubt this will be a thing. I’d bet Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing makes certain that it reverses significantly against the Rams next weekend.
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Every rookie quarterback has a “welcome to the NFL” moment when they are shown how they can’t pull off some of the same things they did in college, or at least not with the same regularity. That moment for Chicago Bears rookie Caleb Williams came in the middle of the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans, when he reached for some of that out of structure magic, spun 360 degrees twice while avoiding a defender … and recorded a 19-yard sack. Surely he’ll pull off an awful lot of crazy stuff at this level. But not as much as he used to.
