Halfway through their debut NFL season, it’s clear that several NFL rookies are way overperforming their draft position — and when you were drafted, for instance, No. 2 overall, that’s really saying something.
So let’s suppose that the NFL exercised a full-scale draft mulligan and threw every rookie back in the pool. How would that change the first round? Fire up the ESPN “The Pick Is In” chime once again …
1. Chicago Bears: QB Jayden Daniels. (Actual pick: QB Caleb Williams) Absolute no-brainer here — Williams has been very good, Daniels has been transcendent. Now the Hail Marys will go in the Bears’ favor.
2. Washington Commanders: QB Caleb Williams. (Actual pick: QB Jayden Daniels) No need to overthink this one. Williams is the second-best quarterback of the draft, even if he’s struggled a bit on-field. And in a different offense, with more weaponry, he might be better in D.C. than in Chicago.
3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye. (Actual pick: Same) Since neither of the top two quarterbacks is dropping, the Patriots opt for what they know. Maye has already shown flashes of glory, and that’s more than enough for New England to stand pat.
4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Malik Nabers. (Actual pick: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.) And now the debates begin. Harrison has been good but inconsistent in his debut; Nabers, when he’s on the field, has been exceptional among rookies, per PFF. Arizona goes for performance over potential, and the ripple effects begin.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: DE Jared Verse. (Actual pick: OT Joe Alt) Offensive tackles are always welcome, and Alt’s been a good one. But Verse is running away with Defensive Rookie of the Year, and that’s too enticing for the Chargers to turn down.
6. New York Giants: TE Brock Bowers. (Actual pick: WR Malik Nabers) With Nabers off the board, the Giants go for another already-proven commodity, and Bowers has already established himself as one of the league’s top tight ends. Daniel Jones gets his bailout.
7. Tennessee Titans: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Actual pick: OT JC Latham) In many cases here, we’ll assume that teams go with what’s turned out to be a better choice at the position they already selected. In this case, when a potential generational talent like Harrison is on the board, you grab that talent.
8. Atlanta Falcons: S Evan Williams. (Actual pick: QB Michael Penix Jr.) And here we have the first real shock of the re-draft. Williams, a fourth-round pick of the Packers, has turned out to be one of the best safeties in the league, per PFF. Atlanta decides to ditch its Kirk Cousins succession plan and switch to win-now mode, bolstering its secondary rather than its bench.
9. Chicago Bears: OT Joe Alt. (Actual pick: WR Rome Odunze) The Bears opt to give their new treasure Daniels more protection rather than more weaponry.
10. Minnesota Vikings: QB Michael Penix Jr. (Actual pick: J.J. McCarthy) A debatable choice here given the Sam Darnold Renaissance, but with both Penix and McCarthy still on the board, the Vikings go with the higher potential future upside.
11. New York Jets: OT JC Latham. (Actual pick: OT Olu Fashanu) The Jets opt for the higher-ranked player at the same position.
12. Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix. (Actual pick: Same) As with the Patriots, the Broncos know what they have in Nix, and they stick with him rather than opting for the unknown of McCarthy.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: CB Cooper DeJean. (Actual pick: TE Brock Bowers) With Bowers no longer an unknown quantity, the Raiders opt for another highly-ranked rookie overperforming his draft status — in this case, current Eagle DeJean (who was taken in the second round).
14. New Orleans Saints: OT Taliese Fuaga. (Actual pick: Same) Since you can’t draft a coach — or an entire new team — in the first round, the Saints stick with what they know. Whoever’s behind him, Fuaga is already doing a solid job of protection.
15. Indianapolis Colts: WR Rome Odunze. (Actual pick: DE Laiatu Latu) Would Odunze fall this far? Perhaps, perhaps not. If he did, he might be able to save Anthony Richardson’s job. Struggled early this season but is finding his rhythm now.
16. Seattle Seahawks: CB Tarheeb Still. (Actual pick: DT Byron Murphy II) Another rookie who’s well outplaying his draft position, fifth-round pick Still is currently one of the rookies solidifying his job with the Chargers.
17. Minnesota Vikings: DE Laiatu Latu. (Actual pick: DE Dallas Turner) Another slight upgrade at the same position. Might as well stick with the draft strategy that works.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: OG Dominick Puni. (Actual pick: OT Amarius Mims) Puni, a third-round pick for the 49ers, has impressed in his rookie season, enough that the Bengals opt to bring him in to protect Joe Burrow.
19. Los Angeles Rams: CB Andru Phillips. (Actual pick: DE Jared Verse) Tough for the Rams to lose a player as talented as Verse, but they opt to replace him with third-rounder Phillips, who’s been one of the (few) pleasant surprises for the Giants this season.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Olu Fashanu. (Actual pick: OT Troy Fautanu) While Fautanu is out with a season-ending injury, Fashanu has impressed at the same position for the Jets.
21. Miami Dolphins: QB J.J. McCarthy. (Actual pick: DE Chop Robinson) Miami now knows all too well how badly it’ll need to prepare for a possible Tua Tagovailoa-less future, so the Dolphins go with McCarthy, expecting he’ll be back before Tagovailoa next goes out.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: OT Amarius Mims. (Actual pick: CB Quinyon Mitchell) The Eagles opt for more protection up front for Jalen Hurts … plus, the chance to add yet another Georgia Bulldog is too tempting for Philly to resist.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Actual pick: Same) Thomas has been one of the few bright spots in Jacksonville’s offensive attack; the Jags opt to go with what they know here.
24. Detroit Lions: DT Byron Murphy II. (Actual pick: CB Terrion Arnold) The Lions are pretty well set across the board, but they opt for some more interior muscle this time around.
25. Green Bay Packers: DE Dallas Turner. (Actual pick: OT Jordan Morgan) Turner is playing a range of positions for the Vikings; the Packers could use a bit of that versatility.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: C Zach Frazier. (Actual pick: C Graham Barton) Same position, slight upgrade, as the Bucs opt to vulture Frazier, who’s performing well at center for Pittsburgh.
27. Arizona Cardinals: DE Chop Robinson. (Actual pick: DE Darius Robinson) What are the odds that there would be two defensive ends named Robinson in the first round of the draft? This time around, the Cardinals opt for the other one, who’s had a better first half, chiefly since Darius has been injured.
28. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Ladd McConkey. (Actual pick: WR Xavier Worthy) McConkey, a second-rounder, has turned in a strong season for the Chargers; the Chiefs opt for him over Worthy in this scenario.
29. Dallas Cowboys: OT Jordan Morgan. (Actual pick: OT Tyler Guyton) The Cowboys also stay in their lane, picking another tackle; Morgan has performed better in that role to date than Guyton.
30. Baltimore Ravens: CB Quinyon Mitchell. (Actual pick: CB Nate Wiggins) With the Eagles’ Mitchell still on the board, the Ravens opt for the slight upgrade at the same position.
31. San Francisco 49ers: WR Keon Coleman. (Actual pick: WR Ricky Pearsall) Coleman has become one of the go-to targets in Buffalo; he provides an instant offensive burst in San Francisco.
32. Carolina Panthers: WR Xavier Legette. (Actual pick: Same) It’s a tale of two Xaviers for Carolina, which must select between Legette and Worthy. Carolina opts for the known quantity; Worthy, after a fast start, has tailed off somewhat.
So there you have it. Seven players get promotions into the first round thanks to their strong debuts. How would this change the outlook for your team?
