ANC officials have been promising increasingly disillusioned voters that the party will tackle the persistent daily power cuts, economic stagnation and corruption that have marred its recent tenure.
The ANC has largely kept its dominance because it has maintained its share of a shrinking voter base. But bucking the trend of the last few elections, turnout was high on Wednesday, with the election commission saying it was expected to exceed the 66 percent of voters who cast a ballot in the 2019 elections.
Much is at stake: The nation of 62 million people is one of the few African nations that consistently hold free, fair and credible elections; nearly 28 million are registered to vote. It is a political heavyweight on the continent; its military serves in several peacekeeping missions; and, despite a troubled economy, it remains the biggest African trade partner of the United States.
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But South Africa also has one of the world’s highest and most persistent inequality rates. Its murder and unemployment rates are also near the top of global tables.
Why has the ANC been losing support?
The ANC swept into power in 1994 as liberators promising to right the wrongs of apartheid, when the White-led government impoverished, brutalized and killed Black citizens. In the first decade of its rule, the ANC built vast swaths of subsidized housing for poor families and poured money into social spending. A progressive constitution in 1997 enshrined human rights, accountability and equality.
But creeping cronyism eventually hollowed out government, culminating with widespread corruption under the presidency of Jacob Zuma. Law enforcement agents and investigators trying to halt the looting were sidelined, forced out or killed, and state assets were transferred to private hands.
“The ANC is so corrupted that if a party goes into a coalition with them it could destroy that party,” said William Gumede, who chaired negotiations leading to an alliance among 11 opposition parties vowing to oppose the ANC. Polls put the ANC at between 38 and 46 percent, and the opposition coalition between 34 and 38 percent.
Why are these elections a potential turning point?
It’s likely that the ANC will need to form a coalition for the first time. Its best bet is an alliance with the plethora of small parties, which would dilute the influence of any one of them and leave real power concentrated in the hand of the ANC.
But if its support slips to around 40 percent, it may need a larger partner — which would hand the leader of that party substantial influence. Such an outcome could force Ramaphosa out, cutting short his second term as president and ending his leadership of the ANC. The constitution allows Parliament only two weeks to form a coalition.
“We are becoming a country instead of a post-liberation miracle,” said author and political commentator Justice Malala. “We are no longer prisoners of the past. We are having a conversation about policies and what’s delivering for people right now. I think it’s great — the country is normalizing.”
Who are possible coalition partners?
The Democratic Alliance (DA) led by John Steenhuisen is South Africa’s second-largest party and has gathered 10 smaller parties into an alliance called the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa. The DA runs Cape Town, rated as South Africa’s best-run metropolitan area by think tank Good Governance Africa, but has struggled to shake its image as an elite party of White liberals after some Black DA leaders quit to form their own parties. Steenhuisen says he would enter an alliance with the ANC to avoid the “doomsday scenario” of an ACN coalition with more radical parties.
Populist Julius Malema, noted for his flashy lifestyle and red berets, was the ANC’s former Youth League chairman before he was suspended in 2011. He founded the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), railing against “White capital” and advocating nationalizing gold and platinum mines and White-owned farms. The EFF received more than 10 percent of votes in the last national and local elections.
The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) was the fourth-largest party in the 2019 elections. The party is largely socially conservative and the majority of its supporters are in the Zulu heartland. IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa has been scathing about the ANC.
There are also a number of smaller possible partners: 70 political parties and 11 independents are contesting the election.
Earlier this month, a court ruled that a conviction disqualified Zuma from standing again for the presidency. But his uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party founded last year still commands support, especially in his strongly Zulu home province of KwaZulu-Natal.
His 15-month jail sentence for contempt of court in 2021 — because he refused to give evidence to a corruption inquiry — sparked deadly riots there and an orgy of looting. Some of his supporters are under investigation for corruption.
If the ANC needs Zuma to form a coalition government, he may insist on immunity for himself and his associates.
Lesley Wroughton in Johannesburg contributed to this report.
