Stock market today: Dow poised to build on record as stocks rise ahead of Fed decision

Live4 updates

• Tue, September 17, 2024 at 4:00 PM GMT+2

  Homebuilder confidence rises in September ahead of expected rate cut

  Homebuilders are feeling more confident about the housing market as mortgage rates sit at the lowest level since February 2023.

  The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose two points to 41 in September from the previous month, breaking a streak of four consecutive monthly declines.

  September’s reading was in-line with economists’ estimates of 41, per Bloomberg data.

  “Thanks to lower interest rates, builders now have a positive view for future new home sales for the first time since May 2024,” NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kansas, wrote in a press statement.

  Mortgage rates have been on the slide in recent months, hitting their lowest level in over a year as investors anticipate rate cuts from the Fed this month. The central bank will issue its next policy decision on Wednesday.

  Lower mortgage rates have benefitted builders as they pulled back on concessions. The survey found that 32% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in September, compared with 33% in August, and that the average price reduction was 5% — the lowest since July 2022.

  The gauge of the sales outlook over the next six months, meanwhile, rose 4 points to 53. The prospective-buyer traffic gauge and the NAHB index of current sales conditions also both rose two points and one point, respectively.

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  Tue, September 17, 2024 at 3:58 PM GMT+2

  Musings from Dreamforce

  Greetings once more from San Francisco, this time from Salesforce’s (CRM) big annual gathering known as Dreamforce. This I believe is my fifth Dreamforce and I have to say, each one is more surprising and different than the last.

  Take my experience last night.

  I am sipping a water during cocktail hour (hey, it’s a work night) at the Time AI 100 dinner (note: Time is owned by Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff and his wife Lynne) and see AMD (AMD) CEO Dr. Lisa Su standing in the corner with her husband. So of course, I go over and say hello and start a chat.

  Somewhere in the convo I remark I have to leave work and go back to school to learn more about AI. She actually advised me against doing that, acknowledging the tech is moving so quickly that the industry is learning on the fly in many respects.

  That left me concerned about AI safety (something further amplified during the chats I had at the dinner table) and the impact to jobs from this rapidly unfolding technology. But it also reinforced the notion that even one year from now, a lot of companies across different industries will see big margin gains as AI spreads internally through their workflows.

  The question I am left wondering on is if the market has priced all of this into stocks.

  Nevertheless, below is what Su told me last week about the future of AI at the Goldman Sachs tech and media conference.

• 

  Tue, September 17, 2024 at 3:40 PM GMT+2

  Retail sales top Wall Street estimates in August

  Retail sales surpassed Wall Street’s estimates in August, as investors keep a close eye on any signs of a slowdown in consumer spending. The data comes as the Federal Reserve’s two day policy meeting kicks off in Washington with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates as economic growth data slows and inflation lessens.

  Retail sales rose 0.1% in August. Economists had expected a 0.2% decrease in spending, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in July were revised to a 1.1% increase, from a prior reading that showed sales increased by 1% in the month, according to Census Bureau data.

  “The stronger than expected retail sales data for August suggest that, boosted by rapid wealth gains and falling energy prices, consumers continue to spend freely despite the labour market slowdown,” Capital Economics North America economist Olivia Cross wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

  The release comes as investors widely expect the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 when it’s next policy decision is announced at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

  “I don’t think this changes really anything,” BofA Securities senior US economist Stephen Juneau told Yahoo Finance. “It’s kind of a nonevent.”

  On Tuesday morning markets were pricing in a 67% chance the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, compared to the 33% odds seen that the Fed opts for a smaller 25 basis point cut, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

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  Tue, September 17, 2024 at 3:31 PM GMT+2

  Stocks open higher ahead of key Fed decision

  Stocks rose on Tuesday, with techs leading the advance, as investors assessed fresh retail sales data in the wait for a Federal Reserve meeting pivotal to an interest rate cut.

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up roughly 0.2%, coming off a record-high close for the blue-chip index. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added about 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) put on 0.7%.