New inflation data out Wednesday showed consumer prices rose as forecast in October, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lower interest rates again in December.
“There is progress on inflation,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, told Yahoo Finance following the data’s release. “We are pointed in the right direction, but it has been a slow grind. And this is another month that fits in that slow grind.”
The outlook remains uncertain as economists warn of another potential inflation resurgence following the election of Donald Trump as the nation’s next president.
Trump and his proposed policies have been viewed as potentially more inflationary due to the president-elect’s campaign promises of high tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for corporations, and curbs on immigration.
Immediately following Wednesday’s release, markets continued to price in another 25 basis point rate cut in December after the central bank cut rates by that amount last week. Traders currently see a more than 80% chance the Fed cuts rates by 0.25% next month, up from just under 60% on Tuesday, according to data from CME’s FedWatch Tool.
“It is clear that the Federal Reserve’s job is still unfinished and that markets are correct in repricing federal funds rate expectations going forward,” Raymond James’ chief economist Eugenio Alemán wrote in a note to clients following the report.
“Under this environment, it is only oil and gasoline prices that are keeping inflation contained. That is, any surge in oil and gas prices could severely compromise the Fed’s inflation target. The Fed should be particularly concerned about the services less energy component of CPI.”
