Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
The data keeps piling up. We now have three weeks worth of numbers with which to play.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Geno Smith (SEA)
Geno is cooking in ways that are downright titillating to analytics geeks the world over. He’s third in completion rate over expected. He’s eighth in drop back success rate. He’s completed 87 percent of his throws between 0-9 yards — an area of the field that has proved critical to offensive success in the Age of the Checkdown.
Yet Geno has a grand total of three touchdown passes through three games. That’s good for a meager 2.9 percent TD rate. Even last year, in a down-bad Seattle offense, Geno had a 4 percent touchdown rate. In both 2021 and 2022, his threw a TD on 5.3 percent of his attempts. The Seahawks are running hot on rushing touchdowns despite being 13 percent over their expected drop back rate in the past two weeks. The Geno touchdowns are coming. The nerds are ready.
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
Positing that something good will one day happen for this moribund Jacksonville offense makes me physically ill. The whole Jaguars offense was designed to fail; it is in no way a modern NFL system. It’s only a matter of time before everyone is fired.
Nevertheless, I persist in telling you that Lawrence has thrown a touchdown on just 2.1 percent of his attempts through Week 3. Only four quarterbacks have a lower TD rate (Matthew Stafford among them). 2.1 percent isn’t all that far below TLaw’s career TD rate (3.4 percent) because TLaw has never been good in the NFL after having one (1) good college season. Things should get slightly better for the Jags as they play out the rest of the season before a total franchise reset in the offseason.
Wide Receiver
Rome Odunze (CHI)
This makes no sense, you scream at your phone in a rage after Odunze went off for 112 yards and a score against the Colts in Week 3. You’re upset. I get it.
But Odunze, believe it or not, ran pretty cold in his breakout game against the Colts. He led the NFL with 191 air yards and narrowly missed on what would have been a 45-yard touchdown — if only Caleb Williams wasn’t so abysmal from a clean pocket. The rookie saw a hulking 59 percent of the Bears’ air yards against Indy to go along with a 23 percent target share. On a day where Chicago led the league in offensive snaps (90), Odunze was a clear beneficiary of pure, unadulterated volume.
It begs the question: Can the Bears be a junky, high-volume offense for the rest of the season? Can they keep operating an offense predicated on 40 or 50 or even 60 low-quality Williams drop backs? The answer could very well be yes. The Bears are fourth worst in EPA per rush and third worst in rushing success rate. That’s what happens when you sign D’Andre Swift as your lead back because he had one (1) good game against you in 2022. It’s not all Swift’s fault though. The Bears through Week 3 are 31st in yards before contact per rush, largely a product of the offensive line, which Pro Football Focus ranks as the league’s eighth worst run-blocking unit.
The Bears might have no choice but to let it rip with the pass game this season. And more passing often means more clock stoppages and longer games. Chicago hasn’t been shy with the pass so far; they’re 1 percent over their expected drop backs rate this season. Week 3 could have been a blip, however, as the Colts allow a league-leading 75.4 plays per game to opponents.
The return of Keenan Allen (heel) could flatten Odunze’s raw route running and target numbers. The Bears are using three receivers at a 65 percent clip — not a low rate, but certainly not even close to the offenses using three wideouts on 85 or 90 percent of their snaps. This wouldn’t be a big issue for Odunze if his Week 1 usage held upon Allen’s return. On opening day with Allen in the lineup, Odunze ran a route on 28 of Williams’ 33 drop backs against the Titans. Odunze’s average depth of target (10) that day was very different from what we saw in Week 3 (22.7 aDOT).
I think, if the Bears continue abandoning the run, Odunze can post even sillier stat lines than the one he had in Week 3. Improved downfield accuracy from Williams — who is 3 for 19 on attempts of more than 20 yards this season — would go a long way in turning Odunze into a week-winning kind of fantasy wideout.
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Sutton remains a Sad Air Yards all-star. The Broncos WR1 now has 350 air yards on the season, the fourth most in the NFL. Get ready to cry: Sutton has a mere 132 actual, real-life receiving yards, ranking 41st among receivers. TuTu Atwell has more. So does Allen Lazard. Woe unto you.
I only want to make sure you keep torturing yourself with Sutton in your weekly fantasy lineups. There’s no real reason to bench Sutton unless you’re stacked at wideout and can thereby ignore good process on a pass catcher seeing so much opportunity (46 percent air yards share).
Perhaps this will stop your tear ducts: The Broncos unveiled a very different offensive approach in Week 3 against the Bucs, and it worked beautifully. Denver created more easy throws for Bo Nix and stopped trying to establish the run with their awful stable of running backs. The Broncos were a cool 14 percent over their expected pass rate against Tampa and are now +9 percent in that metric on the season. Only eight teams are averaging more offensive snaps per game than the Broncos.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (BAL)
I need to create a purgatory section of this regression space for guys like Andrews. It could very well be over for Andrews as a fantasy-viable player in 2024. Or he could get more involved in the Baltimore offense as the season wears on. If you have a direct line to Ravens OC Todd Monken, please let me know. Todd, if you’re reading, call me.
Andrews ran a grand total of six pass routes in Week 3 against Dallas. Six. But here’s the thing: That constituted a 36 percent route share. Isaiah Likely logged a 58 percent route rate on 11 routes against the Cowboys. The Ravens were more run heavy than the Terry Bradshaw Steelers (-19 percent drop back rate over expected) as the Ravens ran the ball 44 times in their decimation of Jerry’s team.
The Ravens’ run-pass options in Week 3 largely turned into read-options, as The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz pointed out. That gave Jackson the chance to keep the ball himself (or hand it to Derrick Henry) and obviously eliminated the chance for a drop back pass. Was this game plan tailor made to exploit the miserable Dallas rush defense? Sure, I’d buy that. Could this game plan’s stunning success in Week 3 lead to more read-option usage that destroys pass volume in Baltimore’s offense? I could buy that too.
Don’t think the analytics-brained Ravens aren’t looking at their Week 3 rushing numbers — including 0.23 expected points added per rush, 123 rush yards before contact, and a minuscule 10 percent stuff rate — and shrugging. They may have found something here that could fundamentally shift their offensive approach in neutral and positive game script, thereby wrecking the fantasy prospects of Andrews, Likely, and Zay Flowers. I guess we’ll see.
For now, I wouldn’t mind starting guys like Zach Ertz and Hunter Henry over Andrews.
Negative Regression Candidates
Panthers offense
I’ve placed Carolina’s offense in this negative regression space not because I believe Week 3’s Andy Dalton-led explosion was a total aberration, but because it won’t quite be that good going forward. It’ll be a hell of a lot better than it was with Bryce Young at the helm though.
With Young mercifully benched by head coach Dave Canales, Carolina’s offense cooked in Week 3 to the tune of 0.213 expected points added per play — the third best of the week. Only the Jets, Ravens, and 49ers posted a higher drop back EPA than the Panthers in Week 3.
That efficiency didn’t come out of nowhere. The Panthers were 3 percent over their expected drop back rate against the Raiders after being -3 percent in each of their first two games of 2024. Their run-pass option usage went from 13 percent over the season’s first two games to 27 percent against the Raiders. Carolina’s use of pre-snap motion ticked up from 25 percent to 37 percent and their use of three-receiver sets fell from 85 percent to 59 percent. It was an entirely different offense than the one Canales operated with Young under center.
Dalton wasn’t an entirely different quarterback in Week 3 than he was during his starting days in Cincinnati, New Orleans, or Dallas. Against Vegas, he was 2.5 percent below his expected completion rate. That’s not far off from the -2.2 percent rate he’s posted on nearly 2,300 drop backs since 2018. Dalton’s 4.5 percent turnover worthy play rate in Week 3, as charted by PFF, isn’t far off from his career 3.4 percent rate. His Week 3 aDOT (6.6) is well below his career mark (8.6). Sunday wasn’t the first time we saw Dalton cook in Carolina. The zoomers won’t remember Week 3 of 2023, when Dalton went for 361 yards and two touchdowns — and top ten in drop back EPA — against the Seahawks.
This is a long way of saying Dalton’s Week 3 wasn’t some otherworldly outing for a journeyman quarterback, but a sustainable profile that should lift all boats in the Carolina offense.
That Dalton fueled greater production for Diontae Johnson, Chuba Hubbard, and the rest of Carolina’s skill position guys is hardly a shock since Young was averaging a catastrophic 1.1 net adjusted yards per attempt from Week 1-2. Johnson in Week 3 became the focal point of the entire Panthers offense, just as Canales pledged back in July. After seeing a target on 22.5 percent of his routes in Week 1-2, Johnson was targeted on 36 percent of his routes against Vegas. His average depth of target spiked to 10.6 and he was essentially removed from the slot, running 91 percent of his routes against the Raiders from the boundary (though Johnson caught both of his slot targets for 40 yards and a touchdown). The Panthers being over their expected drop back rate — an impossibility with Young — and Johnson’s spike in targets per route run suggest he now has the profile of a locked-in top-20 wideout, even if the touchdowns don’t hold.
Hubbard, in his 21-rush, 114-yard performance against Vegas, faced eight defenders in the box on 26 percent of his carries, a low rate considering the Panthers had a big lead in the second half and ran the ball in obvious running situations. Touchdown production — that famously unsticky thing — will wax and wane, but Hubbard and Johnson become must-plays in the Dalton Resurrection Tour.
This is where I tell you the Panthers used a lot more two tight end sets and Tommy Tremble saw a big jump in usage, running a route on 30 of Dalton’s 39 drop backs and catching all three of his targets.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (MIN)
I’m a Darnold truther from way back. I refused to be silenced by my anti-Darnold Rotoworld colleagues this summer when I said — as the famously censorious Pat Daugherty threatened to cut my mic — that Darnold was like Kirk Cousins if Kirk Cousins were actually good. Stop booing. I was right.
So it’s with no pleasure that I tell you Darnold is going to regress in the coming weeks. Like all QBs, Darnold can’t possibly sustain the 10.4 percent touchdown rate he’s posted over the season’s first three games. On Sunday against Houston, four of Darnold’s 17 completions went for scores. That can’t last.
He could also see his downfield passing success regress after hitting six of nine downfield throws (66 percent) in the Vikings’ first three games. Having Justin Jefferson at his disposal might stop that regression from being as dramatic as you might think, however.
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins (LAC)
The regression is already hitting hard for Dobbins after his uber-efficient Week 1 and Week 2 outings. After being 61 yards over his expected rushing production over the season’s first couple games, Dobbins was 33 yards under his expected rushing yards in Week 3 against the Steelers.
Justin Herbert’s ankle injury and injuries to key offensive linemen won’t help matters for Dobbins, even if he takes on a larger role in the LA backfield. Until the Chargers are back to full health, Dobbins will be a shaky top-24 back.
Wide Receiver
Jalen Nailor (MIN)
No one is getting away with it like Nailor is getting away with it in 2024. Operating as the Vikings’ WR2 with Jordan Addison out with an ankle injury, Nailor now has three touchdown receptions on nine targets. He had a fourth TD catch on Sunday against the Texans that was called back on penalty.
Nailor has been targeted on 12 percent of his pass routes this season. Without a touchdown, he’ll be close to useless in all fantasy formats.
Jauan Jennings (SF)
I had to put Jennings here after he roasted the terrible Rams secondary for 175 yards and three scores in Week 3. You know the touchdown production can’t last because nothing good in our little game can last.
This doesn’t mean Jennings should be tossed back to the waiver wire, of course. He saw a target on a shocking 35 percent of his routes against the Rams with a not-all-that-crazy aDOT of 13.4. He ran 56 percent of his routes from the slot against the Rams with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle sidelined. In other words, Jennings was achieving the Holy Grail of wideout fantasy production: Some easy short stuff combined with downfield opportunities. He’ll be a thing until Samuel and Kittle come back.
