The electric vehicle market has been on a wild ride for the last few months. Demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has been disappointing, trade barriers are going up around the world, and a rush of planned stimulus spending in China changed the market’s tune last week.
According to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ: LAZR) fell 11.8% in September, Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) fell 12.2%, and ChargePoint (NYSE: CHPT) fell 27.1%.
EVs come down to Earth
Growth rates have come down for EV suppliers all year, and a recent Alliance for Automotive Innovation report highlighted that EVs lost market share in the first half of the year. Although gasoline-powered vehicles lost share, too, replaced by plug-in hybrids.
The loss in share is particularly bad news because the supply of EVs is increasing rapidly. And for companies that are losing money like Lucid, weakness in demand could mean the upside when production is fully ramped up won’t be as high as previously thought.
To frame the potential struggle another way, charging-station supplier ChargePoint announced second-quarter results in early September and said revenue fell 28% to $108.5 million while losing $68.9 million. It has becoming harder to make money in the EV market and could get even harder.
Trade barriers are going up
In the U.S., the Biden Administration has already put a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports, and the European Union is set to increase its tariffs as well. The U.S. is also proposing a ban on connected-vehicle software and hardware coming from China.
There seem to be two global markets emerging, one inside China and one outside China. And with so many diverse interests across the world, it’s hard to see who will blink first.
A more bifurcated market with local suppliers winning most of the market share would be bad for component companies like Luminar, a specialist in autonomous-driving technology, that want to sell to everyone. And they have had enough challenges financially even without a split global market.
Funding concerns are growing
As all of this bad news flows through the market, it’s becoming harder to see a path forward for companies that don’t have a significant industry lead and aren’t generating positive cash flow.
There are two ways companies can finance their businesses, and that’s through debt or equity sales. You can see below that Lucid, Luminar, and ChargePoint all have significant debt loads, so debt markets might not be open to them.
And with stock prices falling, the equity markets will be difficult to tap into.
Without a fundamental change in the business, these companies don’t have a path forward. Operations aren’t generating the cash they need, and falling stock prices mean investors are giving up on the businesses.
There’s not an easy way out for potential acquirers, either. Lucid’s design and technology don’t fold seamlessly into another automaker, ChargePoint’s plug is a commodity; and the market for lidar, which Luminar supplies, is seeing prices fall fast as competition improves.
I don’t see an easy way out for these EV stocks, and September’s drop might not be the bottom for any of them.
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Travis Hoium has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
These EV Stocks Are Tumbling With No End in Sight was originally published by The Motley Fool
