An AFC North showdown is on tap tonight when the division-leading 6-3 Baltimore Ravens take on the 4-5 Cincinnati Bengals — a rematch of an OT thriller from Week 5 (Baltimore won, 41-38). Both teams are coming off Ws — or rather, both teams are coming off a complete shellacking of inferior opponents in Week 9. Suffice it to say, the TNF gods are blessing us this evening.
Let’s go to the tale of the tape.
Will we see more of Diontae Johnson this week?
The excitement around Diontae Johnson trade for fantasy managers seem to evaporate as soon as it materialized. On the one hand, you had a clearly excellent wide receiver moving to likely the best situation of his career, getting targets from a reigning MVP who’s been playing some of his best football ever. On the other hand, Johnson joined a crowded room of weapons that features, in no apparent order:
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Derrick Henry
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Justice Hill
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Zay Flowers
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Rashod Bateman
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Nelson Agholor
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Mark Andrews
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Isaiah Likely
Every single one of those players has been on the receiving end of substantial work from Lamar Jackson this season. So, while Johnson is clearly expected to be part of the game plan most weeks, it was hard to expect some immediate production from him. Such was the case in Johnson’s first game as a Raven: 17 snaps, no targets.
But perhaps the Ravens call his number this week.
Ravens-Bengals has become must-see TV of late; the last three regular-season matchups have all gone over 50 total points scored. It might be easy to expect Henry getting saddled up with a bunch of carries and Baltimore runs Cincinnati into the ground. But the way Joe Burrow’s been slinging it lately, even without Tee Higgins, it’s hard to see this game not closing in, or surpassing, it’s current 53-point projected total.
The Ravens have a weak secondary and have been vulnerable against the pass all season — the bread-and-butter for Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (more on him shortly). Both offenses will need all hands on deck in this game. And, with Isaiah Likely already ruled out for this game, Johnson has one less obstacle in his way for increased targets. And Johnson has now had a few days to further immerse himself in the Ravens playbook.
Now, don’t expect Johnson to suddenly deliver a monster game, but a couple of catches and some looks in the red zone — maybe a trademark quick-separation touchdown — seem like a safe bet for him tonight.
Speaking of monster games, however …
This might be the best (or, second-best) game of Ja’Marr Chase’s season
Remember that Week 5 barn burner between the Bengals and the Ravens? Ja’Marr Chase went nuclear for a 12-10-193-2 stat line. And there’s a chance he might beat that this week. Or at least, meet that output.
Sure, that Week 5 was a back-and-forth affair that featured six lead changes, but there’s one factor from that matchup that won’t be present for this TNF game: Tee Higgins.
Higgins is listed as doubtful, but it would be a shock to see him on the field for the Bengals tonight. Higgins had himself a day in Week 5 too, going 14-9-83-2. Higgins undoubtedly played a factor in Chase’s big day, as Baltimore had to account for trying to stop both elite wideouts. So while the Ravens defense can focus more on Chase on his own tonight, he also won’t have as much competition for targets. Not to mention, Mike Gesicki (more on him below) has emerged as a potent weapon in the passing game in Higgins’ stead.
There are the games where Chase and Burrow shine brightest. As Chase himself loves to say, he’s “always” open. Expect a huge double-digit target and receiving night from him.
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We might have a sell-high (or buy-low) opportunity for Chase Brown
The default Yahoo Fantasy trade deadline is Saturday, November 16. Now’s the time to gauge the strengths and weakness of your rosters and decide whether it’s time to make a move or stand pat. Should you trade an under-performing star in order to shore up the rest of your lineup? Or should you see what you can get from an unexpectedly high-end performer?
And interesting case study for this is Chase Brown.
It’s hard to find an arrow pointing down for Brown right now. He came into the season with a substantial amount of hype as a light-round upside pick. He’s coming off his best game of the season, a masterful performance where he tore the Raiders apart on the ground (27 carries, 120 yards) and through the air (5-5-37-1). That’s the kind of cheat-code production fantasy dreams are made of. He’s also now been freed from the clutches of having to share the load with Zack Moss, who’s out indefinitely with a neck injury.
And so the trade window has creaked open.
As mentioned, this will likely be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between two bitter rivals. If the Bengals control this game, will Brown be the engine to salt the clock away? If they fall behind, will Brown be featured in the passing game? Will the Khalil Herbert — who’s flashed in brief moments throughout his career — addition make any sort of impact tonight?
If Brown has another good game, should you seek to sell high, and try to nab a true fantasy difference-maker (and that’s not to say Brown isn’t one in his own right)? If he stumbles tonight after his monster Week 9, should you try and see if you could nab him from a leaguemate?
The choice is yours, fantasy manager. For my part, this is a tough matchup on the ground for Brown, but if he remains involved in the pass game and is able to score again, I’m selling as high as I can. The Bengals will live and die by Joe Burrow’s arm — not Chase Brown’s legs.
Pickup-and-play: Mike Gesicki, TE, Bengals (30% rostered)
Sometimes, fantasy football is easy. One guy gets hurt, another guy steps in and produces. That’s Mike Gesicki in a nutshell.
When Tee Higgins has missed time this season, Gesicki has been the next man up even though they play different positions. But the same way the 6-foot-4 Higgins is a matchup nightmare, so too is the 6-foot-6 Gesicki.
I’ll keep this one short: you want pieces of both of these offenses in your fantasy lineups for tonight’s game. Gesicki is available in most leagues and plays at a position where we’re pretty much starved for consistent production. Fire him up again this week.
