5 things I care about
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are peaking
The Ravens’ addition of Derrick Henry was met with much fanfare this offseason. How could a backfield of the hulking running back and Lamar Jackson be anything but cool? Given that hype, a 13-carry, 46-yard debut in the season opener was met with great disappointment, even if he did find the end zone. For all the excitement, it looked like Henry didn’t quite fit or, certainly, wasn’t the unique advantage he was billed to be for the already productive Ravens run game.
Something I started pointing out after that game was that Henry and Jackson had two very different styles as runners. For most of Jackson’s career, he’s done most of his damage as a designed runner lined up in the shotgun on option plays. This allows Jackson to let his instincts take over, and exploit his burst both to the edge when there’s space and right up the gut on gap concepts. Meanwhile, the Titans with Henry as the feature back were an under-center offense. Henry is at his best when he can build up speed before he hits the line of scrimmage to hit the holes when they open on zone runs.
The equation wasn’t just as simple as, “Drop one cool player next to another and let the fantasy points flow” … at least not at first.
While everything outlined there sounds like an oil-and-water conundrum, it merely called for an adjustment period. We want everything to be instant gratification in our world but sometimes, there needs to be a little build up, especially in a new NFL reality that doesn’t feature as much offseason practice or preseason games. Despite the rocky debut, we could have always trusted a smart coaching staff with a unique mind for a collegiate-style run game in Todd Monken, and two premier players to figure it all out.
It appears that the Ravens have indeed figured it all out. Baltimore’s run game has gotten better each week. Henry amassed 84 yards on 18 carries in a solid showing against the Raiders, absolutely demolished an abysmal Cowboys run defense to the tune of six yards per carry in Week 3 and then took a flamethrower to the Bills on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.
Henry ripped off an 87-yard touchdown on the Ravens’ first play from scrimmage against Buffalo. He never looked back from there. Even if you remove that 87-yard run, Henry averaged 5.1 yards per carry before Jackson was removed from the game with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Explosive plays were on the menu all night long.
A new starting five featuring rookie Roger Rosengarten at right tackle and veteran Patrick Mekari at left guard blew steady holes up all night. That offensive line deserves their flowers. According to Next Gen Stats, 139 of Henry’s 199 yards came before contact, his most in a game since 2017. That shows just how wide open the field was for King Henry.
The more fascinating part of the equation was how the Ravens lined up their star runners. We saw plenty of plays out of the pistol for Jackson with Henry lined up right behind him. For those of you who have real lives and aren’t complete football sickos, the pistol formation allows teams to essentially split the difference between shotgun and under center. It allows a shotgun quarterback to feel comfortable while keeping more of the run-game menu available.
This resolution by Monken and the offensive staff wasn’t groundbreaking but a solution doesn’t have to be complex to be sharp.
The Ravens’ run game under Henry and Jackson appears to just be hitting its stride. That’s frightening. Henry is now a top-three running back in fantasy football through four games. How many backs would you rather have over the Ravens’ star runner? There are several younger running backs who are more active in the passing game and are going to be outproduced by a uniquely gifted talent in a unique ecosystem.
The ageist fantasy managers are in shambles.
Rashee Rice’s injury
Losing Rashee Rice to a significant injury is a brutal blow to the Kansas City Chiefs offense. The passing game was already at a clear disadvantage with him in the fold. It’s hard to imagine what this group would look like without him.
Rice isn’t a traditional No. 1 wide receiver. He’s a power slot player who feasts on crossing outs and slants against zone coverage underneath. Rice is a load to bring down in the open field and is a menace in the YAC game. It’s such a hyper-specific role. Someone else on the roster could step in and get open on those routes but they would not add as much to the plays once the ball gets into their hands. That’s a problem.
It certainly didn’t feel great that one of the plays soon after Rice left the game was a very 2023 Skyy Moore drop. All we heard about all offseason was that the Chiefs remade the wide receiver room. We’re not even to Week 5 games and two of the key members will be set to miss extended time, as Rice looks destined to join Hollywood Brown on IR.
What is old is new again.
Rookie Xavier Worthy scored a long touchdown on a go route, where he was schemed to earn a free release in Week 4. One issue the Chiefs faced was that Rice and Worthy needed to be schemed into the right spots to produce. This created a lack of opportunities for the rookie, especially since they also have to manufacture some looks for Kelce at this stage of his career. The deck is now cleared on one front for the rookie.
Worthy only came away with four targets against the Chargers and I maintain that there is little to no evidence on his NFL or college tape that indicates he’s ready to be a high-volume pro receiver. I’m skeptical that he’s the lone clear answer to filling the gap vacated by Rice. It feels like another move needs to take place for the Chiefs to field even a close-to-average wide receiver room this season, but I can’t find that piece on the chessboard. We know they don’t need to have one to win the Super Bowl but this discussion does matter, especially for fake footballers.
Nico Collins
I’m running out of good things to say about Nico Collins, but we’ll give it another go.
Collins is playing at such a high level that he’s making a strong case to be considered as a Tier 1 wide receiver. And that’s for real-life NFL rankings, fantasy football, dynasty formats and anything else you want.
Collins has been the most productive wide receiver through four games. He leads the NFL with 489 yards — more than Malik Nabers, who is second with 386. Somehow, Collins’ film is still more impressive than Collins’ stats.
The Texans receiver obliterated the Jaguars’ man-coverage-heavy defense in Week 4 to the tune of 151 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 15 targets. The addition of Stefon Diggs, who has played exceptionally well for this team as the layup target, and the return of Tank Dell in Weeks 1 to 3 (didn’t play this week) hasn’t taken away from Collins. Nor should it; no team minimizes the role of their best skill-position player on offense just for the sake of spreading things around.
Collins is one of the most valuable X-receivers in the NFL because of his elite ability to beat man coverage but it’s where he shines as a route runner that makes him so critically important. Collins hauled in all of his passes of 10-plus air yard targets in Week 4, per Next Gen Stats, and all but one of them were on in-breaking routes. C.J. Stroud has had complete confidence in Collins and the unique level of accuracy to pin those passes on his top receiver. It makes for a magical pairing capable of moving the chains and making field-flipping plays.
Wherever Collins went in your fantasy league was way too late. However high NFL analysts rank him is likely still way too low. He’s one of the best receivers in the league, pure and simple. Don’t expect his volume and productivity to change no matter what else happens in this wide receiver room.
Collins has shown by now he stands above the rest.
Anthony Richardson injury
The Colts won on Sunday against the previously undefeated Steelers, and for the most part, it came without their young quarterback. Anthony Richardson left the game with a hip injury, briefly returned and was then ruled out for good after taking another hit on an awkward slide.
With Richardson out, the Colts turned to Joe Flacco, whom you’ll remember brought life to a sinking Browns offense last season. Flacco’s influence on the Colts in Week 4 wasn’t as flashy or rocky as his 2023 Browns run, but it revealed a few things about this passing game.
According to Next Gen Stats, Flacco completed all 12 of his short passes (0 to 9 air yards) for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Richardson had been shaky on those throws from an accuracy standpoint this year but was able to hit the long passes for deep strikes. The Colts and Shane Steichen were always going to have to dial Richardson’s aggressiveness back a little to make the offense more efficient. It remains to be seen if he can be a consistently accurate passer in this range but the Colts offense is absolutely capable of being that type of unit because of their receiving talent.
It’s been nice to see Richardson access some of Alec Pierce’s deep-game ability, but the meat and potatoes of this receiver room have to be built around Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, their two most consistent separators.
Flacco was able to activate both on Sunday. Pittman had two catches for 60 yards before Richardson left the game but finished the contest with 113 yards on nine targets. Only one of his catches came short of the sticks. He’s the type of chain-moving receiver that should be a quarterback’s best friend in the intermediate area over the middle of the field.
Downs can also be a quarterback-settler type of wide receiver in the short area. He tied with Pittman for the team lead in targets, catching eight of nine for 82 yards and a score. Downs averaged just 5.9 air yards per target, per Next Gen Stats, but gained 40 yards after the catch. He’s so smart and always pushes north once he gets the ball.
Flacco is not about to go on a long run as the Colts starter. Postgame reports indicate that Richardson is not expected to miss much time, if any at all. His time under center for the Colts merely serves as a reminder that this team can be an efficient attack that matriculates down the field. When Richardson gets back under center, the coaching staff needs to emphasize cutting back on the deep shots and working in the quarterback-settling wideouts underneath. Then, we’ll see if Richardson is up to the task.
The Packers’ second-year pass-catchers
Jordan Love didn’t find life easy in his first game back from a multi-week absence with a knee injury. Returning to face a ferocious Brian Flores defense that puts quarterbacks in the blender is far from a soft landing spot.
Flores and co. got the best of Love and the Packers offense early on, as Green Bay scored just seven points through the first three quarters. Love really struggled to get past the Vikings’ destructive blitz packages. According to Next Gen Stats, Love finished with a -5.3 % completion percentage over expected, averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, and threw two of his three interceptions when blitzed.
It looked bleak through three quarters but the Packers got rolling in the fourth quarter to make what looked like a blowout come down to an onside kick attempt. Much of it came down to Love getting the ball to three ascending second-year pass catchers.
Jayden Reed was the leading receiver on eight targets and scored the lone first-half touchdown. He looks like he’s making the leap to the superstar wide receiver tier. Reed has cleared 130 yards in both of Love’s starts this year and has seen his role expand beyond what he was asked to do as a rookie. Reed is still used as a layup target to show off his skills after the catch but he’s been deployed on far more downfield routes to make use of his fantastic route running. Matt LaFleur may want to vomit at the term “No. 1 receiver,” but it’s been clear for some time that Reed is their top playmaker.
Dontayvion Wicks was already eating into Christian Watson’s snaps this season, which made sense considering his skill set, and was tasked with even more work when Watson left the game with an injury. Wicks left plenty of plays on the field with drops and lost contested catches but Love never lost faith in the strong separator. Wicks finished with a team-high 13 targets and hauled in two red-zone touchdowns. He’s the best perimeter man-coverage-beater on the team and has earned more reps.
It was clear that Tucker Kraft had beat out Luke Musgrave for the TE1 gig in the first game when he played 96% of the snaps. Kraft showed why his role in this offense is so critical. He made several catches on quick out-routes, which are good outlet plays for Love when so many of the wide receivers run their patterns over the middle. He helped move the chains and also found the end zone.
With Watson suffering what looked like another severe injury, these three guys will need to step up further. Love and LaFleur have to be encouraged by what they saw in the ultimately fruitless comeback by these second-year players. With this tough matchup out of the way, Green Bay and fantasy fans alike should expect great things from Reed, Wicks and Kraft.
The best is yet to come for the Packers’ passing game.
5 things I don’t care about
Any Bills offensive concern
It was a nightmare outing for Josh Allen and the Bills offense in Week 4. Buffalo entered the league as the No. 1 offense by EPA per play and success rate after an offseason of concerns following the departure of Stefon Diggs. They were way outkicking expectations and about to take on a Ravens’ pass defense that looked far more beatable than the unit we saw in 2023.
You wouldn’t know it if you just watched this game.
Two things really threw off the offense that we’ve seen from Buffalo this year. The Ravens building a lead early took the Bills’ own explosive ground game out of the equation. James Cook finishing with nine carries is a far cry from the plan in Weeks 1 to 3. On the other side, a patient gameplan from new Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr really flumoxed what the Bills want to do on offense in the passing game. The Ravens played zone coverage and gloved up the short to intermediate area, which made it near impossible to get those layup catches and gain yards after the catch.
In Weeks 1 to 3, Allen averaged a 2.73 time to throw. It shot up to 3.14 in Week 4, per Next Gen Stats. They took away the eays buttons and tasked Allen to get out of the pocket and try to throw over the zones. He got his shots off, including a miracle throw to Khalil Shakir and some back-shoulder passes to Keon Coleman. You know Allen is going to get his but if three plays is all you allow, you walk out of there with a successful evening.
All that said, there is no reason to panic about the Bills offense. Not having a coverage-dictating featured player makes nights like this more difficult. But overall, how many teams are going to be able to gain a 14-3 lead before the second quarter gets rolling and have the back-seven players to take away the short and intermediate areas like the Ravens did tonight? Not too many.
Frankly, my gut tells me that if the Bills didn’t commit a turnover on an ill-fated snap to Curtis Samuel/flip to Allen trick play, they would have punched their way back into a competitive game. The momentum was all in Buffalo’s hands and that play may have cost them any shot at a big comeback. It was a crucial mistake by offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who has otherwise had a fantastic season.
We’ve already seen the ceiling of this offense and, when it’s humming, it’s a strong unit that can produce big-time results for a top AFC team. The first three weeks brought us a sound offense that’s explosive on the ground, that’s steady, efficient and dangerous through the air. There are a lot of young players still growing on this offense. That ceiling still exists no matter what happened in Week 4.
We do know now that the floor exists against some of the top-level teams who can pitch a near perfect game on defense. I know which outcomes I’m betting on taking place more often than not.
Jayden Daniels qualifiers
Undoubtedly, the Commanders have faced two cupcake defenses in back-to-back weeks between the Bengals and Cardinals. They haven’t faced a near-intimidating stop unit since Week 1 in Todd Bowles’ Buccaneers.
That’s fine to admit but it doesn’t take anything away from what Jayden Daniels is doing on the field. If he were merely skating by these bad defenses, it would be one thing, but when you throttle lower levels of competition, that argument becomes much less moving.
Daniels is no longer just running some dink-and-dunk layup, horizontal raid offense, either. The move toward pushing the ball downfield continued for Washington in Week 4. According to Next Gen Stats, dating back to the final minute of their Week 2 win over the Giants, Daniels has completed 35 straight passes under 15 air yards but also four of his six passes of 15-plus air yards. His touchdown to Terry McLaurin came on one such throw.
Daniels is a dynamic passer with outrageous arm talent who can threaten every area of the field. The fact that he’s also already one of the best scrambling quarterbacks in the league makes him a headache for any opposing defense, it will prove true when he faces defenses better than Cincinnati and Arizona.
With Daniels playing like this, Terry McLaurin’s “new lease on life” season with a real quarterback is back on track. The running game is continuing to thrive. I’m even interested in a guy like Luke McCaffrey, as he continues to settle into the offense and perhaps gets a post-bye rookie bump.
This is what happens when you have a guy at quarterback and, no matter the competition, it’s clear the Commanders have just that in Jayden Daniels.
Overanalyzing Garrett Wilson’s slow start
I’ve already seen some in the fantasy space calling for some acceptance-type moment for what Garrett Wilson is, not what we have long hoped he could become.
I’d say we’re a little too early for that call.
There’s no doubt the season’s start hasn’t been great for a guy who went at the Round 1-to-2 turn in almost every fantasy draft. Wilson sits outside the top 32 players at his position despite being one of the top 10 most targeted wide receivers through the first four weeks. The raw volume has been there, but so much of it has come from inefficient, low-upside short throws.
On average, Aaron Rodgers is throwing 2.7 yards short of the sticks this season. Rodgers’ arm still looks quite strong but he’s been quick to get rid of passes and rarely hangs in to read the full field and let pass concepts play out. Wilson also isn’t getting the same type of layup looks to gain yards after the catch that you’d hope to see — think Malik Nabers’ usage in the Giants’ offense. Overall, the middle of the field needs to be more of an emphasis for this passing game.
Coming into the year, Wilson and Nico Collins were the two best candidates, in my opinion, to take the leap from the top of Tier 2 NFL receivers into the rarified “elite alpha” first tier.
Being a candidate doesn’t mean you are a lock.
For now, Collins is racing on his way while Wilson has stumbled out of the blocks. For his part, Wilson does need to make some of the high-degree-of-difficulty catches and play a bit more physical. He isn’t blameless. If you recall, CeeDee Lamb was the top candidate to make the leap to Tier 1 last season. We know how that story ended, but I would urge folks to remember some of the discussion around Lamb’s start to last season and some of the needless overanalysis about “what it said about him as a player.” I’m not 100% confident that 2024 plays out the same way for Wilson but it’s a reminder patience is often the best path, even if the fantasy journey is frustrating.
The Jets schedule doesn’t necessarily lighten up for the offense in the coming weeks. They’ll travel to London to face the Vikings’ chaos defense in Week 5 and then return to America to play the Bills and Steelers. It’s hard to pinpoint the exact get-right spot. However, Wilson remains a talented wide receiver who is still developing a connection with Rodgers as the veteran passer works back from a torn Achilles.
If forced to guess, the end of the season will be significantly better than the beginning.
Eagles wide receiver injuries
The Panthers lose
Despite Andy Dalton’s outrageous first start for the 2024 Panthers last week, I don’t think there were any delusions that Carolina was about to go on a magic run. This team still has some serious flaws, especially on defense. Dalton being under center was just about getting steady play behind center so we could see what the other guys on offense could offer. The Panthers didn’t win but they got that on Sunday.
Dalton’s passing day wasn’t explosive, as he averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt. However, he got the ball to his two most dangerous wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson inhaled 13 targets, catching seven for 83 yards and a score. He’s been targeted 27 times over Dalton’s two starts for 205 yards with a pair of touchdowns. There were a few deep shots left on the field today but Johnson averaged 13.1 air yards per target, per Next Gen Stats. He’s not just getting short targets like he did during his years in the Matt Canada offense up in Pittsburgh. If you were high on Johnson’s chances of being deployed like a true No. 1 wide receiver after his move to Carolina, this was your exact vision.
Johnson wasn’t the only Panthers receiver to flash in Week 4, as first-round rookie Xavier Legette stepped up to earn 10 targets in the absence of Adam Thielen. Legette caught six passes for 66 yards and a score and flashed the exact skills that made him an interesting prospect. Legette ran the shorter routes on Sunday and was used as a yards-after-catch threat. He picked up, on average, 1.8 yards after the catch over expectation, per Next Gen Stats. He could be used in a similar fashion to Rashee Rice’s role in Kansas City, which would make him an ideal receiver to combat two-high coverages.
The running game was also productive on Sunday for the Panthers. Chuba Hubbard was coming off the best fantasy point total of his career. He turned in a 104-yard performance on a team-high 18 carries against the Bengals. The run game will get a boost with Jonathon Brooks in the coming weeks but Hubbard has earned some burn in this backfield.
The Panthers couldn’t outlast the previously winless Bengals, as their defense still has serious holes. That said, the offense validated many of the reasons we’re suddenly interested in some of the talent on this roster with Dalton under center.
Eagles’ wide receiver injuries
I’m generally quite lenient when teams suffer cluster injuries at premium positions. Not many offenses would be able to lose an elite wideout like A.J. Brown and a star No. 2 in DeVonta Smith and win a game. Still, you shouldn’t be convincingly blown out against a conference opponent, as the Eagles were in Week 4.
Philadelphia ran just 56 plays to 74 for the Bucs on Sunday. Much of it came down to the passing game on both sides of the ball. The Eagles’ run game outperformed the Bucs but Jalen Hurts and co. were flummoxed on offense and the defense had no answers for Baker Mayfield.
The Bucs pressured Hurts on 48.6% of his dropacks, their highest pressure rate since 2021, per Next Gen Stats. It’s not a coincidence that the game in 2021 came against the same quarterbacks. The Eagles were without Lane Johnson, and his replacement, Fred Johnson, was abused by the Bucs defensive line, but this is inexcusable. The Eagles being unable to deal with the blitz has been a consistent issue for this unit across multiple offensive coordinators now. No coach has been able to exploit it more than Todd Bowles.
It doesn’t matter who you have at wide receiver if the quarterback doesn’t have or can’t find answers against the blitz. Weaknesses like this will destroy you in the NFL and this one has put a hard-capped ceiling on the Eagles offense for years. Making matters worse, the Eagles defense still looks like a vulnerable unit so the team will need to score points to win. As long as this anchor remains tied around their ankles, they won’t be able to push toward being a top-five offense — even when the wideouts get back.
