It was no secret the Knicks would be a work-in-progress out of the gates this season after they spent the offseason uprooting the starting five with major acquisitions. At 4-4 with some disheartening losses, it’s evident they’ve yet to find their new identity.
Last season, New York boasted a top-five defense backed by elite rim protection, OG Anunoby on the wing and multiple options of effective schemes under Tom Thibodeau. They played a bruising offense behind Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle’s creation, then incorporated Isaiah Hartenstein’s top-of-key playmaking, neither the most efficient but helped by constantly winning the possession games on the boards and via limiting turnovers.
That deep center rotation is gone. Thibodeau’s usual schemes are drawing up a 17th-ranked defense, and without Randle, the offense has frequently sputtered out. While it’s too early to think New York won’t figure this out, it’s worth exploring what this team’s winning formula looks like once realized.
If the ultimate goal is a championship, the Knicks need to play at that level on both sides of the ball. And while their offense – currently third in the league – isn’t perfect, the defense looks like the far larger concern at the moment.
The rough start has been a top-to-bottom failure. Towns’ rim protection and drop coverage can be invisible for stretches, and teams have clued in on attacking him in clutch situations.
Mikal Bridges only looks like his Phoenix Suns self in spurts, which is a consistent problem across the roster. Josh Hart and Brunson look locked in for one stint and completely disengaged the next.
Miscommunication has plagued the team, an inevitable part of radically reshaping your roster. The silver lining is these are early-season issues that can be corrected in time.
One plus has been the defensive glass, where the Knicks rank tenth in the league and their starting unit collects 74.2 percent of available defensive rebounds – which would rank fifth. Though they aren’t bullying teams on the offensive boards like in past seasons, they’re at least holding their strength here.
Given we’ve seen this team and the starting lineup defend well on occasion in the early season, it’s safe to assume the talent and schemes for a top defense are there – the rest is up to effort and comfortability. If not, there may be some adjustments to come – playing Towns at the four for stints once Mitchell Robinson returns and getting him out of drop more when he’s at the five – to name a couple.
Ultimately, defense may never be the core piece of this team’s identity again. Combining Brunson and Towns leaves lots of holes to fill when they are being targeted, and the absence of their rim-protecting fives and overall lack of depth don’t help.
While they’ll need to tighten it up in order to compete, it’s not fair to expect the same style of beating teams with metal bats with this new roster. These Knicks will need to overwhelm teams with their offense.
Among the various reasons they had to trade for Towns, pairing the league’s best-shooting big man with Brunson’s MVP-level creation was a primary one. Surround them with dynamic plug-and-play options and you have the recipe for a leading offense, efficient and deadly enough to leave behind the possession game played in past seasons.
We see the bones of it already. Even while looking clunky at times, the Knicks are third in the NBA with a 119.1 points per 100 possessions offensive rating.
This, despite ranking: 21st in two-point field goal percentage, 19th in assist rate, 27th in percentage of points from the free throw line and dead last in pace.
Anybody who’s watched New York this season can see they’ve left a ton on the table offensively. That they’ve managed to maintain a top-five output despite this should be a strong positive signal.
They’re currently second in the league with 11.9 percent of their attempts coming in the final four seconds of the shot clock. If the Knicks can get more shots up by upping their pace in general and urgency in the halfcourt, it’ll open up easier opportunities and give them a bigger advantage over opponents.
It’s clear this team will try to outgun opponents from deep behind penetration from Brunson, Towns and their wings. They have a solid amount of 40 percent shooters, so leaning on this area of their game is a natural evolution.
Their two-point percentage and free throw rates should jump. A lot of this rests on Brunson’s head as the captain and leading scorer, and he’s had a slow start to the season.
Brunson averages 24 points and 6.1 assists on 45.8 percent shooting from the field and a Knicks-career-low 5.1 free throw attempts a game. While these aren’t horrible numbers, he’s had a few shaky games and certainly does not look like his MVP self.
He appears to be overthinking in a similar vein to the first two games of last year’s playoffs, not taking easy looks and easy plays as they come. Part of that is developing familiarity with his new teammates, but may just be a seasonal slump as well, as Brunson had struggled to start seasons prior.
The offense’s floor and ceiling begin with him. Towns’ insertion has opened up plenty for him, Bridges is averaging an efficient 16 a night, and Hart quickly found his role after a quiet preseason.
There will need to be some changes, some individual and some schematic. Brunson needs to be a bit more selective with his isolation attacks and more focused on his passing game.
Thibodeau will need to emphasize a quicker pace and increased ball and player movement to get the offense churning instead of standing around. They’ll need an attack against switching defenses that aren’t mismatch-hunting into repeated isolations.
Towns is off to a hot start, but should be utilized more as an offensive hub. Given his passing ability, more sets reminiscent of Hartenstein’s high-post package run with Towns in his place could help.
This new Knicks team is still forging a winning identity, but we can start to make sense of the pieces despite a rocky first few weeks to the season. It won’t look like last year, but if New York can start to click on both ends, they can find their championship formula.
