The markets have kicked off September with a reprise of the swoon we saw in early August, making it clear that investors are not quite as sanguine as the politicians would like in this election year.
Bad news from the jobs reports is fueling fears that a recession could be on the way; the July numbers included a downward revision of more than 800,000 for the past year, and the August numbers missed expectations, coming in barely at maintenance level.
The commodity markets are also down in recent weeks, with oil losing all of the gains it saw earlier in the year. The drop in oil prices could signal potential economic trouble ahead, as it reflects weakened global demand and industrial slowdown – key indicators that a recession may be looming.
Watching the situation from JPMorgan Asset Management, portfolio manager Priya Misra says, “I think no market is really pricing in a reasonable chance of a recession, but the totality of data suggests that risks of a recession are growing. While there is so much hand-wringing about a 25bp or 50bp cut from the Fed in September, all markets will move if a recession is upon us. It will take a while for rate cuts to filter through into the economy.”
A smart investor will always have a plan for the worst case – and this scenario will naturally draw attention to dividend stocks. These shares generate an income stream no matter how the market rises or falls.
With this in mind, we’ve opened up the TipRanks database, and found div stocks with ‘Strong Buy’ ratings from the analysts that are yielding at least 10%, a solid return at any time. Here are the details on two of them.
MFA Financial (MFA)
The first stock we’ll look at is MFA Financial, a company in the specialty finance realm acting as a real estate investment trust (REIT). These companies operate in the world of real property and mortgage financing, investing in property purchases directly or in financing loans on real properties. MFA Financial invests mainly in residential real estate assets, primarily residential mortgage loans and residential mortgage-backed securities. The company is internally managed and publicly traded.
As of the end of Q2 this year, June 30, the company had a total residential whole loan balance of $9.2 billion and a total securities portfolio worth $863.3 million. During Q2, the company made $688.2 million in loan acquisitions and added $175.5 million in agency mortgage-backed securities to its holdings.
During the same period, MFA generated $53.49 million in net interest income, a figure that was up 20% year-over-year and beat the forecast by $330,000. The company’s non-GAAP earnings per share, at 44 cents, was up 10% from the prior year quarter and was 6 cents per share better than had been anticipated.
For dividend investors, the key point here is that MFA’s earnings fully covered the 35-cent common stock dividend. The dividend was declared on June 11, and paid out on July 31; at its current rate, the payment annualizes to $1.40 per common share and gives a forward yield of 11.4%. We should note that MFA has paid out $4.7 billion in cumulative dividends since going public in 1998.
For 5-star analyst Jay McCanless, of Wedbush, this stock is emerging from a transformative period and is primed for near-term gains. The analyst, who is rated in the top 1% of his peers by TipRanks, is especially impressed by the dividend here, and writes of the shares, “MFA performed near the middle of pack in our mREIT screen, as the company was not immune from the pressures impacting the overall group over the last few years. However, we believe that MFA has since been able to successfully rebuild itself on several fronts, and we believe that this positive transformation is being seen in more recent financial results, as the company has covered its dividend on an EAD basis for the last couple of years and thus far into 2024. We also view MFA’s current valuation as relatively attractive, given its ~11.5% dividend yield on what we view to be a fairly stable ongoing dividend.”
Overall, McCanless rates the stock as Outperform (Buy) with a $14 price target that suggests a 14%-plus upside for the coming year. With the dividend, that adds up to a total potential return of more than 25%. (To watch McCanless’ track record, click here)
While there are only 4 recent analyst reviews of this stock on file, they include 3 Buys to just 1 Hold, for a Strong Buy consensus rating. The stock has a trading price of $12.26 and an average price target of $13.13, implying a one-year upside of 7%. (See MFA stock forecast)
Golub Capital BDC (GBDC)
Next up on our list is a business development corporation, or BDC. Golub Capital provides the needed combinations of capital, credit, and financial services that keep the small- to mid-sized enterprise sector – the traditional driver of the American economy – afloat. These companies that make up Golub’s potential customer base are not always able to access financial services through the major banks, and firms like Golub pick up the slack.
That’s not to say that Golub operates at a small scale. Earlier this year, the company completed an approved merger with a sister firm, GBDC 3, under which the two companies combined their business and portfolio activities under the Golub Capital’s name and stock ticker. The merger was completed in June of this year, and the combined entity has approximately $8.8 billion in total assets, at fair value, and investments in 367 portfolio companies.
Golub’s portfolio is focused heavily on senior loans. 86% of the company’s investments are in first lien traditional senior loans, and 7% are in first lien one-stop instruments. The remaining 7% of the portfolio is in equity investments. Of Golub’s loan portfolio, 99% is in floating rate loans.
The most crucial aspect of Golub’s business is generating total returns for its investors. The company builds the foundation for this by cultivating a portfolio of high-quality clients, with repeat business. Golub is an experienced credit asset manager and understands the importance of not just building a portfolio at scale, but of maintaining the quality of the investments.
In the second quarter of this year, the quarter in which Golub completed its GBDC 3 acquisition, the company reported a total investment income of $171.27 million while the adj. investment income per share came in at 48 cents.
The company’s earnings more than covered the regular dividend payment, which was declared on August 5 for payment this coming September 27. The dividend, at 39 cents per common share, annualizes to $1.56 and yields ~10.6% going forward.
This stock caught the eye of Paul Johnson, from KBW, who is impressed by the overall quality of the company. He writes of Golub, “We believe Golub Capital is one of the highest quality BDCs in the sector, and the management team has deep experience in the middle market. We expect the portfolio at GBDC will be of higher quality than many BDC peers due to their focus on more senior debt assets. GBDC’s cost structure is one of the best in the sector with low fees, lower operating expenses, and significant shareholder protections.”
Quantifying his stance, Johnson puts an Outperform (Buy) rating on GBDC, with a price target of $16.50 implying an upside of 12% in the next 12 months. Add in the forward dividend yield, the return could be more than 22.5%. (To watch Johnson’s track record, click here)
This is another stock with 4 recent analyst reviews and a 3 to 1 split favoring Buy over Hold for a Strong Buy consensus rating. The shares are priced at $14.76 and their $16.50 average price target matches the KBW view. (See GBDC stock forecast)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
