Picking the right players and knowing who to fade are critical factors in forming a competitive fantasy basketball team. Yesterday, we covered the guards facing competition or injury concerns; today, we’ll zero in on three forwards to fade in fantasy basketball.
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Before we jump in, it’s worth noting that I was very close to including Kawhi Leonard on the list. However, with the news that he’s trending up for the season opener, I’m back feeling how I felt prior — his load management is baked into his ADP (currently 34.9) and I wouldn’t draft him unless he fell to a late fourth-round pick.
Brandon Ingram – SG/SF/PF, New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram is in an interesting spot heading into the 2024-2025 season. He’s eligible for a max contract extension, but the Pelicans don’t want to pay him the reported $200 million deal he’s looking for. Opposing teams haven’t jumped at the opportunity to trade for him either. So, from a fantasy perspective, there’s not much to look forward to as he plays out the final year of his deal.
BI’s 26.8 usage rate was the lowest of his four seasons with the Pelicans. His lack of availability is also a concerning trend, failing to play more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign. Then there’s the emergence of Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones, two contributors to Ingram’s downturn in minutes to 32.9 per game last season. Insert Dejounte Murray into the equation, and Ingram’s 5.7 assists per game with a 26% assist rate will surely go down. He could be motivated to get his next bag, but there are too many cooks in this kitchen to select him confidently in the late fifth or early sixth round, as his ADP suggests.
Keegan Murray – SF/PF, Sacramento Kings
I’m high on Murray’s talent; fading him is more about the situation and DeMar DeRozan’s arrival stunting Murray’s growth offensively. He was the Kings’ fourth-leading scorer at 15.2 points per game, improving in seven categories from his rookie season. Murray excels from beyond the arc, and I’m afraid his role with the new-look Kings will remain that of a catch-and-shoot threat.
Murray’s essentially a lesser version of Mikal Bridges when he was with the Suns — a guy whose efficiency should improve with so much attention going to his supporting cast. Still, his seventh-round ADP points more to his ceiling. He’s a reasonable option if you’re looking for 3s and steals, but I’d likely opt for players who offer more counting stats, like Mark Williams, D’Angelo Russell or Jabari Smith Jr.
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Jerami Grant, SF/PF, Portland Trail Blazers
There are a few reasons why I’m not feeling Jerami Grant. For one, he’s morphed into an empty stat, 3-point marksman who plays more like a two-guard than a power forward. Pulling down 3.5 rebounds in nearly 34 minutes a night is nasty work. He doesn’t rack up stocks like he used to, either, accumulating the fewest stocks of his career last season, which brings me to my next gripe — his availability (or lack thereof).
My man has disappeared in the fantasy playoffs, playing 11 games across the past two seasons in March. Lastly, Grant is a veteran on a rebuilding team who will likely be dealt at some point. His lucrative contract is a sticking point, but expect his minutes to fade the longer he remains with the Blazers. Grant has a 10th-round ADP, so go in another direction with a higher upside — players like Dereck Lively, Collin Sexton, Zach Edey or Onyeka Okongwu.
