In the final chapter of our fantasy basketball breakout series, we shift our focus to the centers poised to shine this season. After covering the breakout guards and forwards earlier this week, I’ve identified four big men who’ve yet to finish inside the top 70 but are due for career years in fantasy basketball. Let’s get into it.
Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons
OK, I definitely predicted Jalen Duren would break out last year. And he kind of did. He’s one of four players in NBA history to average at least 13 points and 11 rebounds per game before turning 21. Duren also significantly improved his free-throw shooting, raising his average by 18% from his rookie year.
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So you’re probably wondering why he’s back on my list. Well, he falls just shy of my top 70 threshold for breakouts.
The Pistons made sweeping changes to their front office, coaching staff and roster that will accelerate Duren’s development. Looking at how new Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff utilized Jarrett Allen lends some insight into what to expect from Duren — more minutes and some (insert expletive) defense!
Duren had the highest defensive rebound percentage in the league last year despite averaging less than 30 minutes per night under Monty Williams. Knowing that Jarrett Allen averaged 32 minutes per game over the past four seasons under Bickerstaff must be music to Duren’s ears. More minutes generally equate to more production, so a bump in scoring and rebounding is imminent.
Additionally, J.B. Bickerstaff reengineered the Cavaliers into a top-10 defensive unit under his reign, which should bode well for Duren. Duren’s defense was abysmal last year, falling from the 60th percentile in blocks and steals in his rookie campaign to the 36th and 15th percentiles, respectively. With a more concerted defensive effort, we can expect a spike in stocks. Lastly, he continues making strides as a playmaker, seeing his assist rate jump from 6.8% to 12.7% last year.
Duren is currently going in the mid-fifth round of drafts. While it’s a reasonable price tag, I expect Duren will see a bump in his scoring, rebounding and stock rates to outperform his ADP by at least one round.
Isaiah Hartenstein – C, Oklahoma City Thunder
The former Knick got paid handsomely in free agency while simultaneously joining one of the best teams in the league. The Thunder had the best record in the Western Conference last season but were bounced from the playoffs in the Western Conference semifinals. The Thunder shored up their frontcourt by adding Hartenstein, one of the best rebounders in the league on a per-min basis.
Hartenstein was phenomenal for New York last year, finishing the season with the following marks inside the top 10 in the league, per Basketball Reference:
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2nd in offensive rebounding percentage
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2nd in offensive rating
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3rd in defensive box plus-minus (DPM)
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5th in defensive rating
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5th in total offensive rebounds
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8th in Steal percentage
Hartenstein was a beast for category leagues, finishing 74th overall, but would’ve been higher had he assumed the starting center role from the onset. That’s why we’ll see the best version of him this season — the minutes. Hartenstein averaged over 30 minutes in just one month last year and he averaged 8.3 points with 12.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 3.2 stocks per game. That’s right on par with his career averages when playing 30-39 minutes: 9.1 points, 12.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.6 stocks. He’s also an underrated passer who thrives as a short-roll man and generates assists from second-chance opportunities in the post.
Hartenstein’s modest seventh-round ADP is a value right now, but remember, he’s a preferred option in category formats over points leagues as the presumed starting center for one of the best teams in the league.
Onyeka Okongwu – PF/C, Atlanta Hawks
Predicting Okongwu’s breakout has proven futile over the past few years. Clint Capela is a fixture of the Hawks’ starting unit, but has time finally run out? Capela is entering the final year of his contract and will become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2025. Capela’s $22 million expiring deal is an attractable asset for any team needing help at the center spot (cough, cough, Knicks).
Enter Okongwu, whose new four-year, $61m deal kicks in this season — a strong indication that the Hawks are both invested in and committed to him, not Capela.
So, what can we expect from Okongwu if Capela is moved — or the Hawks unleash Okongwu?
In his career as a starter, the fifth-year big man averages 11.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 2.6 stocks (1.9 blocks + 0.7 steals) with a 13% usage rate. Solid production. Still only 23 years old, there’s upside in selecting Okongwu in the 10th round of drafts.
He finished 72nd in nine-category formats in 2022-2023, despite coming off the bench in 62 of the 80 games he played that season. A more featured and prominent role is coming, so don’t be surprised when he flirts with a double-double and puts up the best numbers of his young career.
Jalen Smith – PF/C, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls brought in Jalen Smith on a three-year deal that could be a bargain if Chicago can trade Nikola Vučević. The former 10th pick of the 2020 NBA Draft was a bench piece for the Pacers and didn’t see 20 minutes a night over the past two seasons. However, Billy Donovan’s system is ideal for the athletic, floor-stretching big man.
At Bulls media day, Billy Donovan harped on needing to play faster and push the tempo to generate more shot attempts and 3s. Last year, Smith was limited to just 61 games, but here’s how his advanced stats stacked up in 17 minutes per game:
With the Bulls being so guard-centric and emphasizing Pace, Smith is in a position to see an expanded role. Smith can play power forward or center, so with Nikola Vučević declining and Patrick Williams slowed by injury, Smith should be a part of the rotation immediately.
Smith’s emergence will take time as the Bulls will undoubtedly showcase Vučević for a trade, but that doesn’t mean Smith won’t carve out at least 20 minutes per game. He’s proven to be effective in limited minutes, and once the deck clears to embrace the youth movement, Smith will be in a prime position to get the most minutes and opportunities in his career. He’s a plus-rebounder, efficient shooter from the mid-range to the 3-point line and, with limited size and depth in the frontcourt, he’s a player whose stock is up this offseason — and officially on breakout watch.
