2024 Rookie Report for November: Drake Maye flirts with fantasy relevancy

The highs and lows of watching a new rookie class can bring a lot of fantasy football uncertainty. While it’s fun to have shiny new players to plug into lineups, their immediate usage and trends may not have fantasy managers jumping for joy just yet. Here, I aim to give you an update on how rookies are doing and their fantasy values. A monthly report will provide analysis on these, with November’s providing updates over halfway through the season as roles solidify.

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Rookie Quarterbacks

There are currently four rookie quarterbacks starting. We have yet to see J.J. McCarthy and Spencer Rattler is back on the bench with Derek Carr healthy.

Handy-dandy Quarterback Tracker:

Stats via Pro Football Reference (updated through Daniels’ Week 11 game)

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Still the top rookie quarterback thus far, Jayden Daniels has impressed, but he and the Commanders’ offense regressed back down to the mean. A Week 8 Hail Mary throw (with a little luck to it) was Daniels’ highlight play of the past month, giving the Commanders a victory over Caleb Williams and the Bears. He came back down to earth with 207 total yards and no scores against a good Steelers defense in Week 10, but Daniels still ranks top-eight in fantasy scoring amongst quarterbacks. His 464 rushing yards prior to Week 11 were second to only Lamar Jackson on the season. Note: Daniels was dealing with a cut on his throwing hand Week 11 against the Eagles, unclear how serious that injury is as of this writing.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Despite a suspect group of pass-catchers and a makeshift offensive line, Drake Maye has flashed his potential through five starts. In the four starts he finished (left Week 8 due to injury), Maye is averaging over 7.0 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. His fantasy production benefits from his rushing ability as well, averaging 38.8 rushing yards per game. With four top-20 weekly fantasy finishes – including two top-10 finishes – he is flirting with fantasy relevancy. Maye has entered viable streamer territory as critical late-season bye weeks hit.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Bo Nix has been developing for the Broncos, with three straight games of 6.8 yards per attempt. Considering two of his first four games were under 3.5 yards per attempt, the Broncos will take that, along with the rapport he has developed with Courtland Sutton and company. Nix is top-ten among quarterbacks in passing attempts 20+ yards downfield, indicating Sean Payton is letting him take shots and take the reward with the risk. Nix’ recent passing game developments and rushing potential make him a mid-range QB2 down the road.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Though Caleb Williams and the Bears offense seemed to be coming around by mid-October, they have faltered mightily since then. Williams has three straight games of under 6.0 yards per attempt and completing under 55 percent of his passes. The Bears offense has offensive line and receiver separation issues, but Williams is also holding the ball long and getting sacked. He was sacked a whopping nine (!) times against the Patriots in Week 10. Maybe firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will help. Probably not this season, though. Sigh.

Rookie Running Backs

Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants

The leading rookie running back in rushing yards by Week 10 is Tyrone Tracy. He hardly saw any run until Week 5, when he took over for a hurt Devin Singletary and has not looked back. Tracy has seen at least 17 touches in each of the Giants’ last three games, totaling over 100 yards in two of them. Despite the heavy carries, he is seeing less than three targets per game, capping Tracy’s PPR ceiling. Regardless, Tracy has made waves as a potential league-winning mid-season waiver claim and is a high-end RB2 moving forward.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have given Bucky Irving a sizeable role and flex appeal throughout the rest of the season. Irving and Rachaad White have become a good one-two punch in Tampa, with Sean Tucker’s role shrinking again. Irving has seen more carries than White, while White has been more of the receiver. Still, Irving is seeing nine carries and four targets per game over his last four games. He is an intriguing FLEX option the rest of the season.

Audric Estime, Denver Broncos

Audric Estime has become an interesting waiver add at this point of the season. Week 10 saw his highest snap and touch counts, carrying the rock 14 times for 53 yards. He still has yet to see a target in his NFL career and is hardly running routes, denting Estime’s ceiling. Yet, Sean Payton continues to show that he likes Estime and Javonte Williams’ opportunities plummeted as Estime became a regular in the backfield rotation Week 10. Estime has FLEX upside, but fantasy managers should wait and see how the high-variance, committee-driven Broncos backfield shakes out if they can.

Simmering under the surface: Ray Davis (Bills) is a distant third in rookie RB rushing yards and will be behind James Cook barring injury. Trey Benson (Cardinals) has strung together a couple solid garbage time performances behind James Conner. Blake Corum (Rams) continues to flash in a couple of touches per game while Kyren Williams dominates the backfield. Davis, Benson, and Corum are the most valuable handcuffs set up for large opportunity should their respective incumbent starters go down. Meanwhile Jonathon Brooks (Panthers) still has not seen the field. It’s been a long, extended road back for Brooks, who once was rumored to be ready for early season recovering from an ACL tear. Instead, Brooks stays out and is likely out of fantasy relevancy for 2024.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Tier 1 – Weekly Fantasy Performers

The rookie wide receivers’ performance has tapered off at the top since the beginning of the season. Roles and situations are more defined and fantasy managers now have more information on how to value weekly fantasy options, such as Malik Nabers (Giants), Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars), Ladd McConkey (Chargers), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals), and Keon Coleman (Bills).

Malik Nabers’ production has declined, but he remains at the top. Facing tough pass defenses like the Eagles and Steelers and catching passes from Daniel Jones has limited Nabers’ production. Still, he continues to see double-digit targets nearly every game. Nabers is the top rookie receiver and an overall low-end WR1 for fantasy.

Brian Thomas Jr. has tapered off and may continue to do so as long as Mac Jones starts. He was hitting home runs early in the season, but if Jones is the Jaguars’ starter, we are at risk of seeing more of Thomas’ two-catch, 12-yard Week 10. He has also been dealing with a chest injury. Meanwhile, Ladd McConkey has surged forward as the top target in a low-volume passing offense. His highlight from the past month has been a six-catch, 111-yard, two-touchdown Week 8. Both McConkey and Thomas rank in the fringe WR2/3 range the rest of the season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the most touchdown-dependent plays at wide receiver. He has single-digit fantasy points in every game he has not scored. Keon Coleman has caught up to him in fantasy production, catching 9-of-14 targets for 195 yards and a touchdown between Weeks 7 and 8 amidst the Bills’ Amari Cooper acquisition. A wrist injury has stalled Coleman’s breakout. Harrison is a touchdown-dependent WR3, while Coleman will be a WR3 when he returns from injury.

Tier 2 – Next Up…For 2025?

Several rookie receivers lie in the WR4-5 mix for now, looking to gain opportunity, though it may not come until 2025. Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) has fallen to this tier after failing to make an impact before the Chiefs brought in DeAndre Hopkins. He is averaging less than 1.0 yard per route run, one of the worst indicators of production in the NFL and ranking in the range of Quentin Johnston/Jonathan Mingo rookie marks. Rome Odunze (Bears) has also fallen to this tier as a result of the tumultuous Bears offense. Crossing 100 yards twice with no other games over 40 yards, Odunze is a volatile fantasy receiver. Both Worthy and Odunze are high-risk WR4s.

Ricky Pearsall (49ers) has gained steam, debuting in Week 7 after suffering a gunshot wound earlier this year. He scored his first career touchdown in Week 10. Pearsall has WR4 upside as a nice piece next to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle with Brandon Aiyuk out of the season.

Xavier Legette (Panthers) has seen increased targets recently. Devaughn Vele (Broncos) is consistently earning three to four targets per game. Adonai Mitchell (Colts) had a career-high six catches for 71 yards in Week 10. At this point of the season, Legette, Vele, and Mitchell make for touchdown-dependent plays and are fantasy WR5s. Any other rookie receiver is not earning enough opportunity to be on fantasy radars.

Rookie Tight Ends

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Oh man, Brock Bowers as the only fantasy-relevant rookie tight end again?

Not to worry, we’ve got more production to touch on…but Bowers is still far and away the best in class. Catching 57-of-73 targets for 580 yards this season through a shifting quarterback situation, he is a top-three fantasy tight end overall. Whether its Gardner Minshew, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O’Connell, or someone else throwing him the ball, Bowers is a first-round talent and one of two good pass-catchers on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers). Fantasy managers are locking him into lineups and not looking back.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers

There are finally more relevant rookie tight ends. The Panthers’ Ja’Tavion Sanders is seeing increased usage with Diontae Johnson traded and Tommy Tremble injured. With 14 targets over the last four games, Sanders entered the TE2 mix. Though he is still part of a suspect Panthers offense and not seeing consistent volume just yet, Sanders offers streamer value at this point of the season.

Theo Johnson, New York Giants

Another rookie tight end that has come on recently is Theo Johnson. After a zero-target Week 7, he has 16 targets over his last three games. The Giants offense is not very fruitful, but its shortcomings downfield mean more looks for Johnson over the middle of the field. Like Sanders, he is a streaming tight end option.