No. 13 Illinois (11-3, 3-1 Big Ten) is playing its best basketball of the season and riding a four-game winning streak, including a sweep of its inaugural Big Ten West Coast road trip, during which the Illini rolled over then-No. 9 Oregon and edged Washington.
And although they have plenty of forward momentum to carry into Wednesday’s home matchup against Penn State (8 p.m. CT, on Big Ten Network), the Illini have lost four in a row to the Nittany Lions, who have often had their number in conference play, even in the best of years for Illinois.
The Nittany Lions (12-3, 2-2 Big Ten) are fresh off a 77-71 home loss to Indiana on Sunday, but they did take down Northwestern (which handed Illinois its only conference loss) in an 84-80 victory three days prior.
Here are three big questions that will help determine whether the Illini can reverse the trend against PSU:
Which Illinois team will show up outside the arc?
One thing is for certain: Illinois will put up a lot of threes. Through 14 games, the Illini are attempting 31.5 per game – good for seventh in the country. But the question we find ourselves asking seemingly every game is whether or not those shots are going to fall. Of course, the same could be said of every team in every game. But this Illini squad’s shooting inconsistency is something to marvel at – especially for a team that puts up so many shots from the perimeter.
Illinois can point to five shooting performances of 38.1 percent or higher from long distance, but it also has shot 30.8 percent or lower on seven occasions. Even finding a steady middle ground could elevate this team from very good to dominant, but it has been almost exclusively feast or famine for the Illini. Against Penn State – a decent enough Big Ten squad – a subpar shooting night could get Illinois upset.
Right in rhythm 🎵@bhumrichous for three!
2H 19:25 | Illini 45, Washington 31
📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/AfuGWDkln3— Illinois Men’s Basketball (@IlliniMBB) January 5, 2025
Can Kylan Boswell shut down Ace Baldwin Jr.?
Penn State lead guard Baldwin is a proven lockdown defender, but the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year has expanded his game. Baldwin is now one of the conference’s best all-around players, averaging 2.1 steals but also leading the Nittany Lions with 14.8 points and 8.4 assists (fourth in the country). Especially in the half court, everything for PSU runs through Baldwin.
As is typically the case, the offensive catalyst for an Illinois opponent figures to be met by the defensive wizardry of guard Kylan Boswell. With an astounding track record of neutralizing star guards (Alabama’s Mark Sears, Arkansas’ Boogie Fland, Wisconsin’s John Tonje, etc.), Boswell will again need to be at his level best to turn back Baldwin and the Nittany Lions.
How many times will Penn State turn over Illinois?
Penn State’s 16.9 turnovers forced per game ranks ninth in the country. Meanwhile, Illinois commits 11.6 turnovers per game – by no means an egregious number – but has coughed it up 10 or more times in eight straight games (often, seemingly, at the worst of times). The Nittany Lions may feel the need to turn up the heat at some point, which could spell trouble for lead guard Kasparas Jakucionis (3.6 turnovers per game), who hasn’t always responded well to traps, stunts and other pressure strategies from opponents.
