Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. is third in the NFL in uncatchable target rate
Just over 45 percent of Harrison Jr.’s targets have been deemed uncatchable by Pro Football Focus. Some of that is based on his usage. The Cardinals are using Harrison Jr. almost exclusively as a downfield burner. Per ESPN’s Seth Walder, three seconds into the play, Harrison Jr. is the fifth-farthest receiver downfield on average. Just above him on the list are Simi Fehoko, Jalin Hyatt, and Trey Palmer. This issue has been exacerbated by Kyler Murray’s struggles on deep throws. He has completed just 32 percent of his deep shots and is 23rd in PFF passing grade on throws 20+ yards downfield. And that’s just on the throws he is attempting.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has a 19 percent target share over his past three games
That number was 13 percent through four weeks. Pitts’ fantasy outlook bottomed out when he failed to catch any of his three targets in Week 4. He ran a route on just 67 percent of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks. He has since run a route on 85 percent of the team’s passing plays. Pitts is averaging two yards per route run during that stretch.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Baltimore Ravens
Rashod Bateman is seventh in ESPN’s Open Score
His Open Score of 79 is 17 points higher than his mark from 2023. Bateman is averaging 1.99 yards per route run and is PFF’s No. 32 graded receiver. He is on pace for 957 yards and seven touchdowns. This isn’t exactly what dynasty managers had in mind when Bateman was drafted in 2021, but it will be more than enough to pay off his meager redraft ADP this year.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills logged their highest pass rate over expected of the year (+10%)
The Bills had been leaning into their ground game prior to Week 7. They immediately flipped the script following their trade for Amari Cooper.
It’s entirely possible—if not probable—that they were simply testing things against an inept Tennessee team, but the change in approach should give us some hope that OC Joe Brady will open things up going forward.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young is last in the NFL in EPA per play (min. 50 dropbacks)
It’s not a particularly close race either. For those not up to date with the news, Andy Dalton suffered a sprained thumb in a car accident on Tuesday and will miss Week 8. Young will draw the start in his absence. There isn’t a fantasy-relevant Panther when Young is under center.
Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze has 101 yards in four games with Keenan Allen active
Odunze had 112 yards in Week 3 alone. Allen was out for that contest.
The rookie had an 18 percent target share in Allen’s two-game absence compared to a 14 percent target share with the veteran wideout active. Odunze could carve out a larger role over time, but it’s hard to justify starting him this week.
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown set a season-high in carry share (60 percent)
Brown has been the subject of Cincinnati’s section in this column fairly often in recent weeks and for good reason. He looks more and more like the Bengal’s top back with every passing game. Brown ran 15 times for 44 scoreless yards last week. The second-year back is averaging 15.3 touches per game over his past four contests.
Cleveland Browns
Cedric Tillman led the Browns’ receivers in targets (12) and air yards (120)
Sans Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy was nowhere to be found. He was targeted five times and caught one pass for 18 yards. Elijah Moore also out-targeted Jeudy with seven looks, six of which he caught for a total of 41 yards. This is a messy situation, but Tillman looks like the top option—aside from David Njoku—for the Cooper-less Browns.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott leads all quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate (min. 100 attempts)
Per PFF, Prescott has committed a turnover-worthy play on 4.9 percent of his dropbacks. His career rate is three percent. Using an attempts threshold of 50 dropbacks Prescott to fourth in the rankings and somehow makes things look worse for him. The only players with more dangerous plays in that sample are Spencer Rattler, Will Levis, and Tyler Huntley.
Denver Broncos
Troy Franklin has been targeted on 24 percent of his routes
That ranks 22nd among receivers with at least 50 routes. Franklin’s target rate hit 27 percent in Week 7 despite him running a route on 67 percent of Bo Nix’s dropbacks, his second-highest route participation of the year. Franklin earned a 25 percent target share and a 30 percent air yards share. While Jalen McMillan and Ricky Pearsall are among the most popular risers in the weekly ranks, Franklin is an under-the-radar add in all formats.
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff leads the NFL in EPA per play (.51) since Week 2
Goff dropped two duds in his first two games of the season but has since been the most efficient passer in the NFL by several metrics. He leads the NFL in CPOE during that stretch and is PFF’s No. 7 graded passer.
Goff has nine touchdowns and one interception over his past four games. The loss of Jameson Williams is a big blow to the offense, but it could also open up opportunities for Sam LaPorta, who has been one of the biggest fantasy busts this season.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is second in the NFL in passing touchdowns (15)
This is doubly notable because Love missed two games with an ankle injury. His 8.4 percent touchdown rate easily leads the league. Love is a clear regression candidate, but he’s also an aggressive quarterback who finished top-five in touchdown rate last year as well.
He takes risks that few other quarterbacks will try, naturally boosting his touchdown numbers.
Houston Texans
Joe Mixon is averaging 22.7 carries for 125 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in his three healthy games
Mixon also has a weekly receiving line of 2.3 receptions for 19.3 yards and .3 touchdowns in those games. The veteran back left one contest early and missed three subsequent weeks because of an ankle injury, but he has been a top-five fantasy option when healthy.
Indianapolis Colts
Tyler Goodson out-carried Trey Sermon 14-8
Goodson had been playing a backup role to Sermon with Jonathan Taylor sidelined. That flipped in Week 7 and Goodson took control of the backfield. He turned his 14 carries into 51 yards and a touchdown. Taylor might be back this week, but if he isn’t, Goodson will have some RB3 juice.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has 91 more passing yards on deep throws than any other quarterback
Lawrence has 541 yards on 13 completed deep throws (20+ yards downfield). Brocky Purdy is second in yards with 450 and Sam Darnold is second in completions at 13. Lawrence’s best attribute is his ability to make big plays and Brian Thomas Jr., who went for 89 yards and a touchdown on five receptions last week, is taking full advantage of that strength.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kareem Hunt has seen 65 percent of the Chiefs’ carries since debuting in Week 4
That would be the second-highest carry share in the NFL on the entire season. Hunt is averaging 21 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown in his three starts. He is pushing for an RB1 ranking until Isiah Pacheco returns.
Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers is already 15th in receptions for a rookie tight end
The rookie is on pace for 1,158 yards on 114 receptions. That would have him beat the yardage record by 82 and the receptions record by 28. He is on pace for the second-most receptions by a tight end in a single season, rookie or not.
Los Angeles Chargers
Will Dissly is second among tight ends in yards per route run (2.26)
Hayden Hurst missed Week 7, granting Dissly a 77 percent route rate. He made good on that role with eight catches for 81 yards and a 28 percent target share. Dissly’s hold on his strong target share depends on the health of Hurst, but there are worse streaming options for Week 8.
Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams was on the field for 90 percent of LA’s snaps
Blake Corum’s recent appearance in the box scores could be taken as a red flag for Williams, but his role doesn’t appear to have changed. Williams saw 75 percent of the Rams’ carries in Week 7 which falls directly in line with his carry share before Corum’s emergence. Corum, in reality, has taken the relatively meaningless “Ronnie Rivers role” in the offense.
Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill averaged 7.6 PPR points in four games without Tua Tagovailoa this year
Hill posted 32.6 PPR points in the first two weeks combined. Waddle hasn’t fared any better while playing with the Dolphins’ backups. He went from 12.4 points per game through two weeks to 6.2 PPG in four non-Tua starts. Tagovailoa has a shot at returning for Week 8, which will be a welcomed change for anyone who invested in Miami players.
Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones set a season-high in carry share (88 percent)
Jones looked unlikely to play in Week 7 as of last Wednesday. He wasn’t practicing coming out of the team’s bye because of a hamstring injury. He wound up playing through the issue and put on his best performance as a Viking. He ran 14 times for 93 yards and a touchdown with three receptions for another 23 yards. Ty Chandler touched the ball twice.
New England Patriots
Hunter Henry is third among tight ends in air yards (349)
He is also sixth in targets (36) and fifth in expected fantasy points (63.2). Henry has 11 receptions for 133 yards and two touchdowns in Drake Maye’s two starts. He is a clear TE1 going forward.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are 31st in EPA per dropback since Week 2
The People’s Saints were the best offense in the NFL after two weeks and are nearly the worst since then. That sample includes a mix of games from Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler. Things will get better once Carr is healthy and supplants the rookie, but the glory weeks—all two of them—are long gone.
New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy Jr. was on the field for 72 percent of the Giants’ snaps with Daniel Jones under center
Jones was benched late—but not that late—in the Giants’ Week 7 blowout loss to the Eagles. Before Jones left, Tracy was on the field for 24 passing plays compared to eight for the two backups, Eric Gray and Devin Singletary, combined. He saw fewer reps once the Giants threw in the towel, but even his 67 percent snap share and 68 percent route share over four quarters make it clear that he has supplanted Singletary for the starting role.
New York Jets
Davante Adams saw a third of the Jet’s first-read targets
Adams earned seven of Aaron Rodgers’ 21 first-read looks. He tied Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson with nine targets. That was in his first game as a member of the Jets. Adams is on the fast track toward dominating the targets in New York, just as he did in Green Bay.
Philadelphia Eagles
Devonta Smith has been targeted 14 times in three games with A.J. Brown active
Smith has appeared in two games with Brown out of the lineup this year. He amassed 20 targets in those contests.
Smith’s production falls off a cliff when Brown is healthy. The split is unlikely to be this drastic by the end of the season, but Smith is a WR2 at best when the Eagles are at full strength.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren out-snapped Najee Harris
It was a tight split with Warren seeing 35 snaps to Harris’s 33. He ran twice as many routes as Harris and earned three targets. Harris wasn’t targeted once. Warren earned a season-high 12 carries. Warren may not be fully back, but his expanding role is a strong sign that the team isn’t worried about his previous injuries.
San Francisco 49ers
Ricky Pearsall earned a 23 percent first-read target share
Pearsall was the primary read for five targets in Week 7. He earned an 18 percent target share and ran a route on 84 percent of the dropbacks. The 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending knee injury midway through the game and Deebo Samuel barely played and was diagnosed with pneumonia after the game.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Nijgba is 79th among receivers in yards per route run
JSN averaged a pedestrian 1.3 yards per route run as a rookie. That has fallen to a dreadful mark of 1.1 in 2024. PFF has him graded as their No. 74 wideout and ESPN’s player tracking metrics see him as the No. 64 receiver. He will finish the year with better counting stats than he did in his rookie season, but this is the same player.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cade Otton posted his first career 100-yard game
It’s not a coincidence that his first game hitting the century mark came after Mike Evans left early with a hamstring injury. Chris Godwin suffered a dislocated ankle, though that came near the end of the contest and didn’t affect Otton’s receiving total. It will going forward, however. Otton led the Bucs with 10 targets and a 22 percent target share. He is arguably the top streaming tight end heading into Week 8.
Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley is last in the NFL in catch rate (33 percent)
Ridley has reeled in a third of his 36 targets for 183 yards and a lone score. He has the second-lowest catchable target rate in the NFL and is also sixth in drops. Not many of his targets make it to his hands, and even when they do it’s not guaranteed to be a catch.
Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson is fifth among running backs in yards after contact per carry (3.7)
Robinson is also 11th in rush yards over expected per attempt. Most importantly, Robinson is tied for fifth in the NFL in carries inside the five. He has seven such attempts despite missing a game. Robinson is a talented back seeing elite goal line usage, putting him on the RB1 periphery for Week 8.
