(Bloomberg) — Oil fell as Donald Trump’s increasing chances of winning the presidential race boosted the dollar to a one-year high, while an industry report signaled a gain in US stockpiles.
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Global benchmark Brent (BZ=F) crude sank toward $74 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) dropped below $71. With Trump inching closer to capturing the White House as votes were tallied, a gauge of the US currency spiked, weighing on most commodities.
The outcome of the race carries the potential for significant shifts in US foreign, energy and climate policy. If Trump were to beat Kamala Harris, curbs on Russian oil exports could be eased, while there might also be tighter sanctions on Iranian flows, according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.
Crude has been buffeted in recent weeks by shifting perceptions of risks to supplies in the Middle East, with Iran escalating its rhetoric against Israel. In addition, the OPEC+ alliance pushed back a plan to start restoring barrels to the market for a second time. Some traders had been hedging against $100-a-barrel oil if hostilities in the Middle East ratchet up after the US election.
“US foreign policy is shaping up to be a potential factor for oil markets in the near term” over Iran, said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Also, “markets now must consider whether OPEC+ will perennially be forced to push their decision to reverse their voluntary oil production cuts.”
The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said commercial crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels last week, with an increase also seen at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, according to people familiar with the figures. Official data is due later Wednesday.
Crude’s drop on Wednesday came amid concerns that market fundamentals are weak headed into 2025. OPEC+ still plans to restore shuttered capacity in stages, and leading member Saudi Arabia just cut prices of its flagship Arab Light crude to customers in Asia, reflecting soft demand in top importer China.
On the weather front, meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael was threatening about 1.7 million barrels a day of output in the US Gulf of Mexico. Chevron Corp. has shut oil and gas facilities in the area.
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