New Mexico at No. 22 UCLA (Friday: 11 PM ET, CBS Sports Network)
Key pivot point: UCLA’s trapping
Mick Cronin loves to make lead guards uncomfortable, and he’s got a roster filled with elite point-of-attack defenders at his disposal. UCLA will get an early-season test with New Mexico coming to town, led by the audacious, dazzling point guard Donovan Dent.
UCLA will try to make Dent uneasy when he’s bringing the ball up the floor by sending Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year contender Kobe Johnson to hound him for all 94 feet. New Mexico’s offensive actions are littered with ball screens because Dent is such an effective pick-and-roll maestro. New Mexico averaged 14.5 points on Dent pick-and-rolls last year. That rated in the 99th percentile nationally. Only 18 players created more offense in pick-and-rolls than Dent, and his feel is off the charts.
UCLA’s defense will attack Dent with aggressive pick-and-roll coverages. Cronin will not be afraid to send blitzes or hard hedges, but Dent is brilliant against pressure. He can whip one-hand dimes with his left hand before the help can get home. When the opportunity arises, Dent rejects screens so smartly and is suddenly knifing into openings with multiple defenders left in the dust.
UCLA’s off-ball awareness has to be on point against a playmaker like Dent who sees the floor incredibly well, but Dent’s in for a hellacious experience because Johnson is legitimately a special defensive prospect with a ridiculous motor that rarely turns off.
This should be strength on strength, but UCLA has a lot of new faces in the mix. Cronin’s best defenses are all tied together on a string with incredible bite. UCLA’s defense is going to be elite at some point this year, based on the personnel and the staff, but Friday could be a litmus test of how close (or far away) UCLA is to midseason form.
Best one-on-one matchup: Tyler Bilodeau vs. Nelly Junior Joseph
Johnson-versus-Dent is the biggest headliner, but Bilodeau looks like the Bruins’ best offensive player. The 6-foot-9, 220-pound forward is a true three-level scorer who loves to face up and hit a feathery fadeaway jumper. He’s just become a polished weapon that UCLA will lean on early and often. New Mexico needs Nelly Junior Joseph to shut him down. Junior Joseph is a good athlete who can move on the perimeter, but he’s at his best operating in the paint. UCLA should be able to drag him out to the 3-point stripe because Bilodeau’s jumper demands respect.
UCLA’s much-improved skill up and down the roster is for real, but Bilodeau looks like the head of the snake of this offense. New Mexico’s path to earning a roadkill starts and ends with turning his water off.
The pick: UCLA 76, New Mexico 71 (All aboard the Bruins train. Choo-choo.)
