Week 10 Expected Points: Tyrone Tracy running with the King

Week 10 Byes: CLE, GB, LV, SEA

Hello, and welcome to my Week 10 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs

• 50 wide receivers

• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 10, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 9 Expected Points

Rico Dowdle (DAL, 16.3 Expected Points)

There’s a lot going on in Dallas these days. Ezekiel Elliott led the backfield in Week 8 after Dowdle missed the game due to illness. Then, in Week 9, Dowdle led the backfield while Zeke missed the game due to disciplinary reasons. Dak Prescott is facing an extended absence due to a hamstring injury, and CeeDee Lamb is hoping to play through a sprained AC joint and the team as a whole is 3-5.

In Week 9’s loss to the Falcons, Dowdle ran 12 times for 75 scoreless yards and caught a season-high five passes for 32 yards and a score. It was just the second time this season that Dowdle has totaled 100-plus yards from scrimmage and only the third time he has found the end zone all year. Shockingly, all his touchdowns thus far have come through the air.

Dowdle is (probably) the best running back on Dallas’ roster. This isn’t saying much, but if teams are playing their best players, he should see solid opportunities moving forward. It’s hard to tell by his production, but things have been trending toward him seeing more work in the coming weeks. Take a look at how Dowdles’ opportunities/gm have fared from Weeks 1-4 compared to Weeks 5-9.

He gets a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that’s allowed only 16.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs since Week 4, but if your team has been afflicted by the four-team bye week, there could be room to play him as a desperation RB3 who should lead his backfield in touches.

Tyrone Tracy (NYG, 9.7 Expected Points)

With four teams on bye and a lot of obvious studs up top, picking out a few deep plays for Week 10 has proven challenging. That said, I’ll give the nod to Tyrone Tracy in Sunday’s game against the Panthers.

Tracy is evolving into a near bell cow back right before our very eyes. Since Week 5, his 92 opportunities are tied for 14th-most amongst RBs with Alexander Mattison and some guy named Derrick Henry. Tracy is also 20th in expected points (59.9) over that span and 11th in FPOE (13.9).

Since Devin Singletary returned from his injury in Week 7, he has taken a backseat to Tracy, earning just 19 opportunities to the rookie’s 49.

Tracy and the Giants get a Panthers’ defense that’s allowed the most points per game (31.9) to opposing running backs over their last five games. The volume and matchup make him a potential smash.

Wide Receivers

Week 9 Expected Points

Josh Downs (IND, 13.8 Expected Points)

We can once again play Josh Downs to our heart’s content. The Colts slot receiver, quite frankly, is on a pace to be one of the most productive receivers in the league as long as Joe Flacco is under center. The RotoViz Game Splits App bears it all out quite clearly. The left column is games Flacco and Downs have played in together this season.

Just for the sake of some numbers comparisons, the 18.4 fantasy points per game Downs is averaging with Flacco would rank him as the WR8 in PPR leagues this season. The 116 receptions he is on pace for would have been the fourth-most receptions of any receiver in the league in 2023, while the 1,312 yards he’s on pace for with Flacco would have been good for eighth most last season.

We saw Flacco inflate David Njoku’s numbers last season when he took over as the Browns starting quarterback. Njoku was on a 17-game pace to be the best tight end in all of fantasy with Flacco under center, and has gone for a pedestrian 30-255-2 in six games without him this year.

The Colts don’t have a tight end of note, so Flacco finding Downs as his reliable checkdown target in 2024 shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Downs gets a decent Week 10 matchup against the Bills, but the risk of a negative game script should create plenty of opportunities for him in the passing game.

Flacco is the Colts’ starter for the foreseeable future. Until that changes, fantasy managers can confidently start Downs in their lineups.

Jameson Williams (DET)

We’re going a little outside of the box here, but in case you forgot, Jameson Williams has been reinstated from his two-game suspension and is expected to be active for Week 10’s game against the Texans, which should be ripe for fantasy scoring.

Over their last five games, the Texans have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. A known big-play threat, Williams has given up the 13th-most passing yards (417) on targets that have traveled 20-plus yards downfield, and the seven touchdowns they’ve allowed on those targets are tied with the Rams for the most in the league.

The counter argument to my point is that the Texans have allowed the second-lowest completion percentage on these attempts, but opposing offenses clearly see opportunities worth taking, as the 47 deep balls Houston’s defense has faced are also tied for most in the league.

Williams has been a true boom or bust player in his last four games. He’s seen just 10 targets over that span, but has two games in which he went for more than 75 yards and a touchdown. With several big name receivers on bye this week, Williams makes for a solid option as a WR3/WR4 where needed.

Tight Ends

Week 9 Expected Points

Taysom Hill (NO, 12.0 Expected Points)

It’s happening, and I hate it. Taysom’s Hill package is growing right before our eyes, and we have no choice but to embrace it before it withers away to nothing.

Hill saw a season-high 10 opportunities in Week 9’s loss to the Panthers and finished the week as the TE5 thanks to his 16.0 point outing. The do-it-all player caught 4-of-5 passes for 41 yards in the defeat and also ran five times for 19 yards and a score.

The Saints don’t have many directions they can go in offensively. Rashid Shaheed is out for the season and Chris Olave is dealing with his second concussion in a month. Olave is not expected to clear protocol in time for Week 10’s game against the Falcons, which means the Saints could be rolling with Cedrick Wilson, Mason Tipton, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their top three receivers.

It’s a brutal break for an offense that ranked first in points per game through the first two weeks of the season.

The 10 opportunities Hill saw in Week 9 set a new season-high. His previous season high of eight opportunities came in Week 8. I think we see where this is going.

While he’s still a relatively boom-or-bust player in this week’s game against the Falcons, the Saints have little choice but to get him involved, given the current state of their roster. If you’ve been stashing him in hopes of the perfect moment to deploy him, Week 10 may be as good as any to take that shot.