Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Rice Owls

Rice Owls Breakdown (1-0)

Rob Lanier is now the coach of the Rice Owls after being dismissed from SMU despite winning 20 games last season. It was one of the more surprising firings of the college basketball offseason, and he finds himself in a tricky situation at Rice, as the Owls were picked to finish last in the American Conference this season by a wide margin.

Rice has finished over .500 just three times in the last twenty years, with a winning percentage of just 39.4% since the start of the 2005-06 season. One of those seasons was with Mike Rhoades at the helm, who is now Penn State’s head coach.

Lanier has Rice entering the game 1-0 after beating FIU at home earlier in the week. They shot a staggering 38 free throws in a 77-70 victory, but they turned it over 16 times and shot just 25% from three. It’s not an overly talented team, but they’re well-coached and should be solid defensively.

If there are two players that you should be familiar with before Saturday’s game, it’s Trae Broadnax and Caden Powell.

Broadnax is their most reliable ball-handler and shot-creator, finishing with 15 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. He started his career at Navy before transferring to USC Upstate, where he became an All-Big South selection last season. Now that he’s in his last season of college basketball, he’s hoping to provide a spark of playmaking to a team that doesn’t have a lot of it.

Powell is their starting center and was a perfect 7/7 from the floor against FIU, finishing with 17 points, 11 rebounds, and two blocks. He did also have four fouls in just 24 minutes, something FSU may want to exploit. He started 31 games for Wyoming last year and averaged just 5.4 PPG and 4.6 RPG, so it’s unlikely he will continue to put up games of 17 and 11.

Some other players to quickly mention: Alem Huseinovic shot 40.2% from three last year at Rice and will be asked to put up a lot of threes, Emory Lanier (coach Lanier’s son), is a starter despite playing just 10 MPG at SMU last year, Kellen Amos was a double-digit scorer as a slasher for Central Connecticut State in the last two season but has always been a turnover-prone (he had seven against FIU), and Andrew Akuchie is a solid backup big.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (1-0)

FSU is coming off a solid win over Northern Kentucky, where they displayed a dominant defense, forcing 22 turnovers. The offense will take some time to come around, and it may not be better in this game in an NBA arena where the depth perception can take getting used to.

They’re going to need to rely on their defense early on and let Jamir Watkins run the show offensively. He’s a good enough playmaker to pass over the double teams, as we saw on Monday against NKU.

I would like to see the three-point shooting improve in this game. They shot just 4/22 from three on Monday, but I believe they’re a better shooting team than that. Watkins worked hard on his shot this offseason, Jerry Deng is an elite shooter, Daquan Davis was a good shooter at Overtime Elite, and Justin Thomas has made a high percentage in his career. They have the talent as shooters; they just need to show it.

The one thing the defense needs to clean up is fouling. Rice shot an absurd amount of free throws in their first game, and FSU allowed NKU to shoot 23 free throws for a 46.9% free-throw rate. If you go back to last year’s game against SMU, a Rob Lanier-led team, FSU allowed the Mustangs to shoot 21 free throws in a low-possession game, and they were a bad fouling defense last year, in general.

READ MORE: NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Rice

G: Trae Broadnax
G: Alem Huseinovic
G: Emory Lanier
F: Kellen Amos
F: Caden Powell

Keys to the Game

Ball Pressure

Florida State forced 22 turnovers against Northern Kentucky in their opener for a turnover rate of 28.6%, according to KenPom. Rice was very loose with the basketball against FIU with 16 turnovers for a turnover rate of 21.1%, and FIU wishes they had the ball pressure Florida State does.

Expect full-court pressure from FSU all game as they try to force bad passes and rushed shots and speed the game up some. The expectation should be a turnover rate north of 20%, but it could realistically end up around 25%.

Consistent Offense

Rob Lanier held FSU to 57 points on 0.86 points per possession last year when he was at SMU. He had a great defensive game plan built for the ‘Noles and will likely have another one for this season, even if Rice doesn’t have the talent SMU did last year. Florida State has to find consistent offense by driving to the paint and finishing through contact. If they allowed Rice’s physicality to get in their heads, it could be a long game.

Wall-Up

There’s only one shooter that FSU really needs to be concerned about – Alem Huseinovic. For everybody else, the focus has to be on keeping them from getting to the basket without fouling.

Rice shot an absurd 38 free throws against FIU in their first game. FSU needs to cut that number in half, at least. Trae Broadnax and Kellen Amos are athletic slashers who can get to the rim, while Caden Powell and Andrew Akuchie are solid big men with finishing abilities. Force them to finish over length and not through contact and the ‘Noles should be fine.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 9 points with an over/under of 153.5, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rice will be bothered by Florida State’s length, and they don’t have enough on-ball shot-creators to make FSU pay. As long as FSU can defend shots without fouling, which has been a struggle for them in the past, they could run away with this game, even if the offense may look like a struggle. Especially with it being in an NBA arena, which can mess with college players’ shot perception, the under looks like a lock.

Florida State 70, Rice 59

READ MORE: 3 Takeaways From FSU Basketball’s Season-Opening Win Over Northern Kentucky

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