Has the Premier League title race been whittled down to two teams after just 11 games of the season?
Leaders Liverpool had the dream weekend after victory over Aston Villa coupled with defeat for Manchester City against Brighton – and Sunday’s 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Chelsea.
They now lead City by five points – and the rest of the pack by nine points or more.
Opta’s “supercomputer” gives Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal just a 3.5% chance of the title, with Chelsea down on 0.2% and anybody else on 0%.
“I would not write off anyone who is up there now, absolutely not,” said MOTD2 pundit and former Arsenal forward Theo Walcott.
“Liverpool at some point are going to stumble and they will have injury problems like every other team.”
Are Arsenal out of the title race?
Arsenal fans were hoping this was going to be their season after pushing Manchester City close in each of the last two campaigns.
And with City faltering – on the back of four consecutive defeats in all competitions – this might have been their ideal chance.
But Liverpool are performing better than anyone could have imagined under new boss Arne Slot, with 28 points out of a possible 33.
And the Gunners trail the leaders by nine points at the end of a weekend for the first time since the final day of 2022-23, when they finished 24 points behind Manchester City.
They looked dejected as the final whistle went at Stamford Bridge.
Walcott said: “The difference with Arsenal at this moment in time is that they are lacking in goals, while they are not conceding many – but at this point of the season it’s important to factor in who they have played.
“I would say that, so far, they have played tougher teams – they have played six of last season’s top 10, and five of those games have been away from home.
“Plus, most of the time they have been without their main player, Martin Odegaard, and they are still where they are.”
Captain Odegaard made his first Premier League appearance since August against Chelsea and set up Gabriel Martinelli’s opening goal.
Walcott added: “People tend to forget all of that when they look into how Arsenal are not playing at the same level they were at last year, but for me it is one of the reasons not to write them off in the title race.”
Gunners legend Paul Merson, speaking on Sky Sports, said: “He [Arteta] has got to make sure it gets down to six points rather than go to 12.
“I think they’ll do well to catch Liverpool now. It might stay at nine until the end of December. If it goes to 12 then it’s finished.”
Can Arsenal do it? Well, history is not on their side.
Excluding teams with games in hand, nobody has ever won the Premier League title after being nine (or more) points off top with 11 games gone.
Manchester City managed it in 2013-14 but leaders Arsenal had played 12 games by that stage.
Speaking about his title rivals, Arteta said his team need to “win, win, win, win and win, because these guys don’t stop winning”.
If they were to win every remaining game this season they would end on 100 points, with Liverpool’s current form putting them on course for 97 points.
Liverpool’s title to lose?
Liverpool are only the sixth team in Premier League history to be five points clear after 11 games.
The first five all won the title – including Liverpool in 2019-20, the last time a team were so far clear at this stage.
There were many doubts about how Liverpool would get on after the exit of legendary boss Jurgen Klopp last summer – but they are flying under Slot.
Reds midfielder Alexis Mac Allister admitted “before the season started I would not say we were candidates, but now it looks like [we are]” after their 2-0 win over Villa.
Opta give them a 58.3% chance of the title – up from 5.1% before the season.
Walcott said: “What Liverpool have got going for them is they have seemingly endless amounts of goals in their team. If you look at their goal difference compared to the teams chasing them, it is massive.
“So it doesn’t really matter if they do start conceding goals, because they can outscore you.
“Liverpool are going to have injury problems like every other team, or hit a stage where all the games they have to play in the Premier League and Champions League will start to catch up with them.
“So this is just the start [of the title race] but Liverpool’s firepower is the one thing in their favour. They have so many attacking options and they share their goals throughout the team – they share the workload in front of goal, that’s for sure.”
Ex-Reds midfielder Jamie Redknapp, speaking on Sky Sports, said “Arne Slot is the big winner this weekend”.
“They need to keep that momentum. Right now, the ascendancy is with Liverpool. Liverpool play Man City in a couple of weeks,” he added.
That game is on Sunday, 1 December at Anfield.
How about City’s hopes?
Pep Guardiola has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the first time (excluding penalty shootouts) in a trophy-laden career with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and City.
City are bidding to win a fifth Premier League title in a row – but Opta only give them a 38% chance of doing so. That figure was 82% before a ball was kicked this season.
“Maybe after seven years winning six Premier Leagues, maybe one year another team deserve it,” said Guardiola.
However, they are famously strong finishers and have only lost four Premier League games after Christmas in the past three seasons.
Plus they have overcome much greater obstacles than a five-point deficit after 11 games.
In fact, in all their four-in-a-row title-winning seasons they have trailed by six points or more at some stage, including when they were eight points off Arsenal in April 2023.
Redknapp said: “To Manchester City this feels like a bit of a crisis.
“This is the first time in a few years where people are saying Manchester City are not favourites to win the title because of the injuries they have got.”
How about Chelsea and the rest?
Chelsea, who are in third place, Brighton and Nottingham Forest are all level on 19 points with fourth-placed Arsenal.
The Blues were not expected to challenge for the title this season, having finished sixth last term before another summer of rebuilding.
Boss Enzo Maresca said after Pedro Neto’s equaliser against Arsenal that his team are ahead of schedule.
“For me we are behind City and Arsenal,” the former City assistant boss said.
“Every day they work together with the same manager for the past nine years. It does not mean that we are not going to try to win. We are one of the biggest teams in the world.
“I try to manage day by day. I’m not worried where we can be at the end of the season.”
Despite the remarkable starts of Brighton, who beat City, and Forest – who lost to Newcastle on Sunday – nobody has really talked about them in title terms.
In fact Opta gives them both a 0.0% chance of topping the table at the end of the season.
The 11 teams from Chelsea in third to Manchester United in 13th are only separated by four points, meaning the fight for Champions League places is wide open.
