On Target is a periodic column where we examine stats, trends and data points tied to the men who catch the football in our fantasy world.
Let’s dig into it.
Where are the Trey McBride touchdowns?
Every so often I like to have fun with something I call the Diontae Johnson Award. It’s a nod to Johnson’s strange 2022 season, where he collected a whopping 147 targets but somehow never scored a touchdown.
Usually you identify that sort of usage and you recognize the screaming buy-low opportunity. Positive regression is a concept most fantasy managers understand by now. But it’s also worthwhile to try to understand why some players outkick their touchdown expectations, and some players fall short.
And this brings us to Trey McBride, Arizona’s fine third-year tight end.
McBride was a breakout player last year, getting hot in the second half and finishing as the TE9. He’s kept it up this year, third in aggregate points at the position and fourth in tight end points per game. McBride has been a right answer in 2024.
He’s also the current holder of the Diontae Johnson Award. He’s sitting on 65 targets and still hasn’t scored a touchdown yet.
The default stance before any secondary digging is to target this type of player. Volume is critical in fantasy football and eventually good players find the end zone, by design or by luck. Occam’s Razor is a powerful solver of fantasy dilemmas — the simplest explanation is often best.
But there are two other possible explanations to consider. One, it’s easier for teams to run the ball than pass the ball in the red zone, when windows get tighter and connections become harder. Some teams are outliers in this area — some franchise quarterbacks throw regularly in these congested areas and do quite well. But will Kyler Murray and the Cardinals ever be that kind of team?
Murray has only attempted 29 passes in the red zone this year — that ranks 25th in the league. His nine touchdowns in this space rank 16th in the league. So there’s a smaller pie for McBride to share in. If you want to narrow the range to inside the 5, Murray ranks 16th in attempts (seven), although he does have four touchdowns (that ranks eighth).
Murray’s currently having his best pro season. All of his indexed metrics are well above league average; his accuracy has never been better.
But Murray is always going to be one of the smallest starters in the league, checking in at 5-foot-10. It would make intuitive sense that he’s more of a weapon in the middle of the field as opposed to the red area. And the Cardinals have an established identity from in close, with James Conner one of the best power runners in the league. Murray’s rushing is still a weapon, too.
The upcoming schedule is below-average for about a month or so, with four difficult matchups coming McBride’s way. But if you can get to the playoffs, McBride’s slate could push you over the top. He gets the Panthers and Rams the final two fantasy weeks — they rank first and fourth, respectively, in allowing points to tight ends.
Maybe McBride touchdown regression won’t be ready for your Thanksgiving meal. But it could make for a nifty Christmas present about a month from now.
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Bears usage in the Thomas Brown debut
As you surely heard last week, the Bears fired embattled offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and moved Thomas Brown into the play-calling chair. Chicago suffered a frustrating loss to the Packers when a last-second field goal was blocked, but there were encouraging signs from the offense. Caleb Williams had his best game in a month. The offense used motion more proactively. Maybe it wasn’t a home run, but at least the Bears got on base.
Chicago usually employs a narrow target tree, but two player trends are worth mentioning. Rome Odunze played 82% of the snaps (and drew 10 targets) against Green Bay, a notable bump from the New England loss. And Cole Kmet was over 90% snaps for the second straight week. Waldron was one of the last Gerald Everett fans — remember Kmet played fewer than half of the snaps on opening day. Thankfully, that story is over now.
Odunze (6-65-0) and Kmet (3-42-0) weren’t exactly week winners with their Week 11 stats, but it’s a positive step. And Williams looked far more comfortable in the game plan. Chicago’s facing perhaps the hardest schedule in the league moving forward, but Odunze and Kmet at minimum could be useful depth pieces as we navigate hellish bye problems for Weeks 12 and 14.
Jauan Jennings, alpha in San Francisco
Earlier this year we took an extended look at Jennings, trying to figure out if the rules of Signature Significance applied after his 11-175-3 smash against the Rams. We concluded that Jennings was the real thing, but injuries derailed the story for a bit.
Jennings is back now, healthy and solidified in the San Francisco offense. He’s locked into the Brandon Aiyuk X-role and has the trust of play-caller Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Brock Purdy. Jennings draws regular first-read targets, and Purdy will pull the trigger in the tightest of windows.
It’s time to give Jennings another accolade. He’s the No. 1 receiver here, the alpha, the priority.
The last two weeks, it hasn’t been remotely close. Jennings has 22 targets opposed to just 13 for Deebo Samuel. Jennings has made 17-184-1 on his work, Samuel 9-84-0. For the year, Jennings has a 60.3% success rate on his targets; Samuel is lagging back at 42.3%. It makes sense that Jennings is taking over.
The fantasy market hasn’t quite made the switch yet — Samuel still ranks 16th on the current board, while Jennings is 19th. But not only should that ranking be flipped, but there probably should be a fair amount of distance between Jennings and Aiyuk. Follow the volume or follow the efficiency, it doesn’t matter. Both routes will get you to the same conclusion.
