Philadelphia Eagles WR Devonta Smith (hamstring) @ Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Sunday, 5:20 pm Eastern
Philadelphia Eagles slot receiver DeVonta Smith played through a hamstring strain in Weeks 10 and 11, finishing as the WR71 and WR54 in points-per-reception (PPR) scoring, respectively. He began Week 12 with consecutive Did Not Participate (DNP) practice designations, casting doubt on his ability to provide a bounce-back week, if active, in Philadelphia’s Sunday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
Smith averaged 2.21 yards per route run (YPRR) in Weeks 1-9 and just 0.70 YPRR in Weeks 10-11, per ProFootballFocus. He is unlikely to produce efficiently, as long as the strain remains an issue.
Philadelphia tight end Dallas Goedert is the primary beneficiary of Smith’s soft tissue woes. Los Angeles’ tight end-coverage unit allows the 12th-highest explosive pass play rate (13.8 percent) among NFL teams and the third-highest yards allowed per coverage snap average (6.71).
Philadelphia conversely handled Goedert’s Week 6 hamstring strain brilliantly, allowing the veteran pass catcher to rest until Week 10. He efficiently averages a 20.1 percent target rate and 2.16 YPRR, respectively ranking 10th and fourth among 31 NFL tight ends with at least 175 receiving snaps.
Tennessee Titans RB Tyjae Spears (concussion) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears suffered a Week 11 concussion, jeopardizing his Week 12 availability. He was unable to practice on both Wednesday and Thursday this week. Fantasy managers should expect Spears to miss this week’s game against the Minnesota Vikings.
If Spears is active, he would profile as an RB3/4 while starter Tony Pollard could be started as an RB2, possessing a wide range of outcomes.
Minnesota’s run defense makes a strong case for the league’s best unit, allowing league lows in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.286) and positive EPA rate allowed (30.0 percent). It likewise boasts the league’s lowest missed tackle sum (25), while averaging the fourth-shallowest tackle depth (3.45) and the eighth-shallowest yards allowed before contact per rushing attempt (1.1).
Minnesota’s running back-coverage unit is more vulnerable, ranking 17th in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.28), 29th in explosive pass play rate (16.3 percent) and 31st in open-target rate 67.9 percent). Minnesota’s blitz-heavy tactics are to blame. The running back-coverage unit has allowed 14 explosive pass plays on plays with a blitz, tying for the sixth-most among NFL teams and their 70.5 percent open-target rate on qualifying plays is the fifth-highest.
Spears’ absence would keep Pollard in the high-end RB2 ranks thanks to a high-volume workload with complete access to the passing-down role.
Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs (calf) vs. Detroit Lions
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Indianapolis Colts slot receiver Josh Downs was added to Thursday’s injury report with a calf injury despite practicing in full that day. Indianapolis has been notoriously conservative with their players’ injury report statuses and practice participation this season, regularly having players take the day off if they are unable to practice in full.
The team has not yet released details as to when the injury occurred. Given Indianapolis’ injury report tactics, it is recommended fantasy managers rely on beat reporters to glean information on the issue.
Detroit’s defense covers slot receivers efficiently but the team frequently plays with allowing opposing passing game to rack up receiving production all the same. Detroit’s slot receiver-coverage unit allows just 5.93 yards per coverage snap, trying for 13th-fewest among NFL teams, but the unit has also allowed the fifth-most explosive pass plays (47). Downs is a WR2/3 if active.
Detroit’s perimeter wide receiver-coverage unit performs similarly, ranking ninth in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.02) yet has allowed the ninth-most explosive pass plays (57). Indianapolis perimeter wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. jumps from a WR3/4 to a WR2/3 if Downs is inactive while Nos. 3 and 4 wide receivers Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell jump from WR5/6s to WR4s.
Los Angeles Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (shoulder) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Monday, 5:20 pm Eastern
Los Angeles Chargers slot receiver Ladd McConkey suffered a shoulder injury in the first quarter of Los Angeles’ Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals but returned to the field after a brief examination in the blue medical tent. He caught 5-of-8 targets for 103 yards in the second, third and fourth quarters.
McConkey has an extra day to rehabilitate the injury given his team’s Monday Night Football game but he notably began the practice week with a Thursday DNP.
Per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Edwin Porras’ 2024 Injury Prone Draft Guide, wide receivers experience a 16.0 percent week-to-week recurrence rate after suffering a nonspecific shoulder injury. Both Porras and DPT Jeff Mueller initially expressed concern for an AC joint sprain, though the nature of McConkey’s injury has not yet been disclosed.
The Baltimore Ravens’ pass defense is allowing 0.095 EPA per play, the seventh-most among NFL teams.
McConkey is a must-start, low-end WR1 if active. Los Angeles perimeter wide receiver Quentin Johnston is inexcusably available in more than 40.0 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. He is a weekly WR3 who would rise to high-end WR2 viability if McConkey is inactive. Los Angeles tight end Will Dissly is a TE1 streamer who would absorb additional targets if McConkey sits.
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (back/foot) @ Washington Commanders
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Dallas Cowboys No. 1 wide receiver CeeDee Lamb played through a late-week back injury in Week 11 but appeared on Week 12’s Wednesday injury report as a limited participant with both a back injury and a foot injury. He was unable to practice on Thursday, suggesting the foot injury occurred during Wednesday’s practice. Fantasy managers should plan to be without Lamb in Week 12. The 3-7 Cowboys have nothing to play for and thus have no reason to rush Lamb’s return.
Dallas’ No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee) could return to play this week but he is not a recommended fantasy starter.
The Washington Commanders enter a revenge-week contest for head coach Dan Quinn and edge rushers Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. and the defense is playing at an extremely high level.
Washington’s pesky pass defense ranks 14th in EPA allowed per play (0.027), 13th in quarterback pressure rate (35.9 percent) and 11th in forced incompletion rate (9.1 percent).
Fantasy managers should avoid Dallas’ passing offense completely if Lamb is held out. As mentioned in McConkey’s section, Johnston is widely available in re-draft leagues. Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson and Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. are likewise readily available and make for viable replacements.
