Prior to being selected by the Hornets during the 2023 draft, Brandon Miller was seen by many as the clear No. 3 prospect in the draft behind Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson. As the draft approached, rumors that Charlotte would take him instead of pairing Scoot and LaMelo began to swirl. If I’m being honest, I didn’t think they were real until it actually happened, and I was vehemently against the decision. I really liked Miller as a prospect, but to me (and many others), Henderson was the much better player.
Fast forward about 17 months, and the Hornets clearly made the right choice. While I’m still a believer in Scoot, he has really struggled to this point of his career. He may figure it out eventually, but Miller has been better than advertised. He shined down the stretch of his rookie season and has taken a giant leap in year two, despite a slow start. Field goal percentage has been an issue for him this season, but he has shot the ball much better recently and has combined that with elite numbers from beyond the arc and on defense.
Charlotte has been a struggling franchise for a long time, but they have something to build on with LaMelo and Miller, especially with the latter ascending to star status. He still has plenty of room to grow, but he has done a few things at a high level, which has resulted in a lot of fantasy success.
Miller is currently averaging 19.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 3.6 triples per game. Over the course of a full season, those marks have only been reached a few times. Stephen Curry is currently doing it, and the only other time he did it was during his unanimous MVP season. James Harden did it three times from 2017-20, which included a 1st place, 2nd place and 3rd place finish in the MVP race. Paul George also did it during the 2018-19 season, when he finished 3rd in MVP voting. This isn’t to say that Miller should be in the MVP race this year, but it shows that his statset is unique. He has superstar upside, but in order to get to that level of production in fantasy hoops, Miller will have to improve on his efficiency. His current field goal percentage of 41.6%, which would be the worst of that group despite him drawing significantly less defensive attention than any of the other guys. He isn’t on that level yet, but this type of production at his age is an encouraging sign.
Shooting/scoring
Last season, Miller only shared the floor with LaMelo a handful of times because Ball was only healthy for 22 games. While guys like Vasilije Micic and Tre Mann did their best to fill the playmaking void, Miller had to create more of his own offense. 34.7% of Miller’s makes last season were unassisted.
This year, that number is down to 25.3%. 68 of his 91 makes this season have been assisted, with 36 of those coming directly from Ball. That means almost 40% of Miller’s offense this season has been set up by LaMelo through lobs and dimes for threes.
Miller has made it clear that his favorite player is Paul George, which has resulted in a lot of comparisons to his game being drawn. Miller has a bag of tricks and a smooth handle that have helped him get open for stepback threes, layups, floaters and mid-range shots. However, he hasn’t shot the ball well between the arc and the restricted area. He has shot 31.3% on mid-range shots and 34.9% on shots from the paint that have come outside the restricted area. Miller has also struggled on corner threes, though he doesn’t shoot those often. He is 1-of-11 on what is considered one of the best value shots in basketball.
However, Miller makes up for it by being elite at the rim and on other 3-pointers. He has shot 70.6% from the restricted area and 40.7% on above the break 3-pointers. The good news is that 113 of his 219 shot attempts this season have been above the break threes. Miller has taken most of his shots from where he has had success.
While he is more than capable of creating his own shot, he has been far more effective when someone is setting him up. He has taken 6.6 catch and shoot threes per game, which is the most in the league, and has made 2.8 of those, which is tied with Derrick White for first. Miller is shooting 41.9% on catch and shoot 3-pointers, but he has made just 27.5% of his 3.1 pull-up threes per game. His ability to move without the ball and create offense has really stood out to me. He is averaging 1.42 points per possession when shooting off screens, which is in the 89th percentile.
Of course, the LaMelo-to-Miller lob is becoming a staple of the Hornets’ offense. They have connected for seven alley-oops across Miller’s 13 games played so far this season. He has been a threat at the rim and behind the arc this season without needing to have the ball in his hands the entire game, making him the perfect complimentary player to suit up next to Ball.
Playmaking
Miller does a lot of his scoring without holding the ball for a long time, whether it be a catch and shoot or a quick move after receiving a pass. The same can be said for how he operates as a playmaker. He’s averaging 3.8 assists per game this season, many of which simply come within the flow of the offense. This could be making the extra pass to a shooter in the corner or tossing it ahead on a fastbreak. However, what he does really well is create advantages on his drives. Miller is capable of getting by his defender and drawing the help defense in. After that, he can easily find the open man. He’s not a high-volume playmaker, and he isn’t going to run a ton of pick and rolls, but he is a sneaky good passer.
Defense
Despite boasting a seven-foot wingspan, Miller wasn’t able to come away with many steals at Alabama. The advanced defense metrics were all great, but his averages of 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks didn’t jump off the page. His averages of 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks as a rookie ended up making a lot of sense, but in year two, he is swiping 1.5 steals and swatting 0.6 shots per game. Over his last four games, those marks are up to 2.0 steals and 1.0 block per game.
Miller has been using his long reach to get his hands into passing lines, swipe the ball away from ball handlers, and even get up in the air to swat shots. The advanced stats haven’t been great, but his defensive box plus/minus, D-LEBRON and defensive rating are all better than they were last season. That isn’t surprising at all for a second-year player, but it is still a step in the right direction.
Situation
If there were any concerns about the pecking order in Charlotte, they should be put to rest. Miller has 16.8 shots per game, which is second on the team behind LaMelo and more than Miles Bridges has gotten. The Hornets aren’t a contending team by any means, but they have a foundation that is centered around Ball and Miller. They know what they have in these two and have already started to build the team around them.
Regardless of what happens in Charlotte over the next few years, Miller’s role with the team seems safe. They aren’t what one would call a free agency hotbed, so managers shouldn’t worry about a star signing there and taking away shots. Trades for superstars are far more common these days, but the Hornets aren’t close enough to being a contender to consider that yet. Miller is too good for Charlotte to consider trading him, and he’s only in his second season, so he won’t be leaving in free agency. They just hired Charles Lee to be the team’s head coach this past summer, and he has been solid so far, so there shouldn’t be any fear of change in that regard. Barring LaMelo or Miller getting fed up and demanding a trade, there aren’t many scenarios where things change drastically in Charlotte for at least a few seasons.
Overall outlook
It’s still early in his second season, but Miller has provided fourth round value in 9-cat leagues despite posting a worse field goal percentage than he did as a rookie. He should undoubtedly be viewed as one of the 50 most valuable players in dynasty leagues and could certainly be ranked much higher.
Miller has been able to produce at a high level in some categories (3-pointers, steals) while also having clear room for improvement in others (field goal percentage, which will lead to more points). This is a great recipe for a young player that will develop into a star. Of course, it isn’t a guarantee. He could simply not get that field goal percentage up, whether it be because he is taking difficult shots or because he’s missing makeable shots. The steals could be fluky, since that is a volatile category, and he didn’t showcase that as a strength in college.
However, I’m in the camp that believes in Miller long-term. The intangibles that he has shown indicate that he can help shift the culture of a team that hasn’t had success in a long time. One play that has stuck out to me came last season, when he yelled at his veteran teammates to get back on defense. Not many rookies will be that vocal, so it gives me confidence that he’ll help this team grow over the next few seasons. As a result, Miller will develop into an All-Star level talent. We’ll see if it happens, but the results early on this season have been indicative of a budding star.
