It’s time to do a rookie check-in! As we head into the fantasy football playoffs, let’s look at the recent performances, rest-of-season outlooks and 2025 look-aheads for key rookies.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
After a hot start to the season, Daniels cooled off, leaving fantasy managers concerned that Daniels’ early season production was the flukey result of easier matchups. I discussed Daniels’ rest-of-season outlook a couple of weeks ago during “Fantasy Football Live” and defended Daniels’ dip in production as a bit of an overreaction from fantasy managers.
Fantasy managers were understandably panicked after Daniels had two disappointing performances against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. While those games were concerning, Daniels has finished outside the top 12 at quarterback just three times this season (excluding the rib injury game). For perspective, Daniels’ production is not that dissimilar from a player like Joe Burrow who has finished outside the top 12 four times but offers week-winning upside with a typical borderline QB1 floor.
Pulse check: Is Daniels a set-it-and-forget-it ROS?
Daniels had another top performance in Week 13, with an incredibly efficient day of 25 completions on 30 attempts for 206 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception and a rushing touchdown — back-to-back overall QB1 performances.
Looking at his rest-of-season schedule after the bye week, two of the Commanders’ final fantasy matchups are very favorable with just one difficult matchup against Philadelphia. Daniels retains his top-five ranking and is a luxury start for fantasy managers.
Bonus pulse check – Daniels’ 2025 outlook!
Looking beyond this season and into 2024, given his rushing upside and a locked-in elite WR1 in Terry McLaurin, Daniels will likely be a top-five draft pick at the position in 2025.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears were a tale of two halves in Thanksgiving’s game against Detroit. After an abysmal first half, Caleb Williams went off, finishing with 256 passing yards, three touchdowns (two to Keenan Allen) and 39 rushing yards.
Williams now has two QB1 performances, very impressive considering Williams has been through a lot over the past few weeks. The Bears are on a six-game losing streak and it’s been a tough defensive stretch against some of the top defenses in the league. Despite all those challenges, Williams has done about as well as you can ask for. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6. His accuracy has been a bit suspect but understandable given the offensive line struggles and he’s finally managed to get back on track with five passing touchdowns over the past two games while also adding some rushing upside.
Pulse check: Can we finally trust Caleb Williams?
Williams’ rest-of-season outlook is interesting. He faces the San Francisco defense that has typically been stout against the pass, but struggling with injuries. After that, he faces Minnesota and Detroit — the two teams he just had strong performances against — and then finishes up friendly in Week 17 against Seattle. Looking at Williams’ season as a whole, considering the struggles in coaching, he hasn’t had any major or alarming red flags. He’s excelled in easy matchups, struggled in difficult ones and shown improvement and resiliency in tougher matchups down the stretch, providing volume through the air and a bit of unexpected rushing upside. He looks like a solid streaming option rest-of-season.
Bonus pulse check – Williams’ 2025 outlook!
Looking at Williams in 2025 is a bit difficult because he’ll have a new head coach and offensive coordinator and could have changes to surrounding weapons, particularly with Keenan Allen on the last year of his current deal. Unlike Daniels, who will likely lean toward that aggressive draft trajectory, Williams will likely remain in a similar location as 2024 as a borderline QB1 with upside.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams isn’t the only Bears rookie whose late-season trajectory we are monitoring. Regardless of Williams’ performances, Odunze has remained fairly inconsistent in a crowded receiving corps.
He has just one touchdown all year, with fluctuating targets and inconsistent yardage. Just when we think Odunze is on the brink of a potential back-half breakout, he falls back into the third option within the receiving corps with limited upside.
Pulse check: Can Odunze ascend to WR1 in the Bears’ offense?
It’s difficult to trust Odunze for the remainder of the season. We’ve had subtle signs that he could push forward but DJ Moore remains the only truly reliable option and Allen remains a critical piece of the Bears offense. There’s simply no room for Odunze to ascend and he remains a volatile, low-end flex option.
Bonus pulse check – Odunze’s 2025 outlook!
As previously mentioned, the Bears could move on from Keenan Allen, allowing Odunze to step into a more prominent role. Whereas Williams’ rest-of-season outlook remains fairly positive, it’s tough to see where Odunze offers breakout potential. Look to 2025 as the actual breakout for him.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Similar to the Bears, the Giants are in a constant position of fluctuation, but much more drastic as we truly don’t know the future of their quarterback situation, leaving countless questions.
Through Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock, one thing remains constant: Nabers is a target hog and has a stable floor based on pure volume. He’s averaging over 10 targets per game this season and changes at quarterback have had zero effect on that baseline. The problem is that Nabers hasn’t had a touchdown since Week 3, and while his targets remain excellent, his yardage baseline remains around 50-70. Matchup has zero effect on this statistic. It’s truly a shame because Nabers’ rest-of-season schedule is excellent.
Pulse check: Should we panic over Nabers’ rest-of-season?
Based on pure volume, we will continue to start Nabers because we know he won’t destroy our week and the matchups are excellent. Unfortunately, it’s tough to see significant upside given the team and quarterback situation.
Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants
Running backs often suffer with downgrades at quarterback and Tracy is a prime example of that trajectory. However, that hasn’t been the only challenge that Tracy has faced. Starting in Week 10, Tracy began having a tiny fumbling issue and the tolerance level from head coach Brian Daboll was fairly low and we’ve started to see Devin Singletary with a mild uptick in workload.
Pulse check: Is it time to bail out on Tracy?
Tracy did manage to hold onto the ball in Week 13, but there are still concerns around volume and he’s had just nine carries in each of the past two games. Because Tracy is still operating as the lead back and does appear to have a goal-line preference, he remains a borderline RB2. However, while the upcoming schedule does favor friendlier matchups for the pass, it’s a bit volatile against the run.
Bonus pulse check – Nabers’ and Tracy’s 2025 outlook!
Looking ahead to 2025, there is zero question around Nabers and his upside with what should be a brand-new rookie quarterback like Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders.
The Giants’ moves in the offseason will likely dictate Tracy’s future in 2025. Tracy was a fifth-round draft pick, and fantasy managers are well aware of the volatility that comes with late-round running backs and job security. Tracy has the opportunity to secure his 2025 role by finishing off the 2024 season strong; however, he is facing an uphill battle given the team and quarterback situation.
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR, Arizona Cardinals
Week 13 was interesting — five receptions on 12 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in what can be a difficult matchup. With Kyler Murray having yet another perplexing day, it’s easy to make excuses for Harrison Jr.’s performance this season, but the numbers are pretty clear-cut.
Unless he goes on a late-season run, we’re looking at a season of fewer than 60 receptions bolstered by big plays and touchdowns. Trey McBride continues to dominate receptions, targets and volume in this offense and there’s a clear delineation with volume being pushed to McBride and touchdowns being pushed to Harrison Jr.
Pulse check: What’s the trust level with MHJ moving forward?
The schedule is perhaps the only saving grace for Harrison Jr. It’s tough to imagine any change in offensive philosophy from the Cardinals moving forward, but given the friendly nature of the upcoming schedule, we remain optimistic regarding the potential upside for Harrison Jr.
Bonus pulse check – MHJ’s 2025 outlook!
The look-ahead for 2025 is peculiar. On one hand, the market will have an aggressive reaction to the hyped-up 2024 ADP, likely seeing an increase in dipping value that would make Harrison Jr. an appealing draft pick at value. On the other hand, we’re likely not looking at any major changes to the Cardinals’ offense moving forward. Murray is under contract, and there shouldn’t be any coaching changes. Perhaps the Cardinals learn to better utilize Harrison Jr. in the future. It remains to be seen if this is the right coaching staff and quarterback to truly help him thrive.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Evaluating Drake Maye’s performances, rest-of-season outlook and look-ahead for 2025 is actually incredibly fun! Make no mistake — Maye has been messy. Ten touchdowns, seven interceptions and five fumbles are absolute proof of that.
However, the Patriots are messier.
They’re young, they don’t have an established receiving corps, their offensive line is extremely shaky and their defense is dealing with significant injuries. There hasn’t been much to expect, but what we’ve seen of Drake thus far has been highly impressive.
Pulse check: Should we trust Maye as a QB1 moving forward?
Maye is the perfect mix of fantasy upside. He’s got the big arm and high-volume potential plus strong rushing upside — he’s on track to set the NFL record for average per rush by a QB. Maye has a bye in Week 14 and unfortunately finishes out the season with a tough schedule where he’ll have to rely on his legs for any fantasy upside. As such, Maye doesn’t have much relevancy outside of Superflex leagues.
Bonus pulse check – Maye’s 2025 outlook!
Unlike Caleb Williams, who will be going through the challenges of a new coaching system, Maye remains in the same system. It’s simply a matter of surrounding him with talent that can help him thrive. The Patriots will likely be spending their free agency and draft season investing in pieces around Maye, improving the offensive line and finding a true WR1. If the Patriots can manage to have a strong offseason, fantasy managers can look to Maye as a QB2 pick with extremely high upside and potential as a late-round draft steal for those looking to wait at quarterback.
Keep your eye on Maye as one of the potential league-winning picks of 2025.
