Duke basketball will play its fourth ranked matchup of the young 2024 season on Wednesday night when the Blue Devils host the #2 Auburn Tigers (9:15pm ET, ESPN).
The Blue Devils are no stranger to big nationally televised games as the team has already played #4 Kentucky, #1 Kansas, and Arizona.
Duke lost to Kentucky by 5 points and Kansas by 3 points, both on neutral courts. The Blue Devils took down Arizona on the road 69-55. At the time of Duke’s win at McKale, Arizona was ranked 17th. But, since that game, Arizona has lost three of its last four games and fell out of the AP Poll completely.
The win at Arizona might prove to be less and less impressive as the season moves forward with the Wildcats’ struggles, and Duke has lost both of its games against currently ranked opponents.
That’s why the Blue Devils might be in a true must-win scenario against the Tigers on Wednesday night.
This will be the last opportunity for the Blue Devils to get a signature win against one of the top programs in the country. After Duke plays Auburn, its only other non-conference games are against Incarnate Word and George Mason.
And the reason Duke may desperately need a win in the non-con right now isn’t necessarily to boost them up the rankings currently, but for the win to be on the Blue Devils’ resume come March.
Right now, Duke is a darling in the metrics. The team is #4 at KenPom and #4 in the first NET rankings of the season. NET rankings are based off of strength of schedule and quality wins.
Come NCAA Tournament time, the committee doesn’t look at the AP Poll or the NET for seedings, but rather each team’s resume as a whole. If Duke can stamp a win against a bonafide national championship contender in Auburn, it will give the Blue Devils a much better shot at a #1 or #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win the ACC like they’re supposed to.
A loss to Auburn wouldn’t kill Duke’s season by any means, especially given how early in the season it is. But it could be potentially damaging to the resume down the road.
If Duke goes into ACC play with losses to the only three currently ranked teams it’s played, it could be really difficult for the Blue Devils to make that up in ACC play with how weak the conference looks.
Aside from Duke, there are two teams in the ACC currently ranked: #18 Pittsburgh and #20 North Carolina.
Although Pitt actually looks really good and has completely exceeded its expectations thus far into the season, UNC looks far worse than anticipated with three losses on the season already to #1 Kansas, #2 Auburn, and Michigan State.
Aside from the two other ranked teams in the ACC, there’s really no one else that’s a lock for even a top 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
After the ranked ACC teams, the next tier is probably Louisville, Wake Forest, and Clemson. If those are some of the best opportunities Duke is going to get to stack the resume, it makes the non-con that much more important.
Duke is actually favored in every one of its games for the remainder of the season according to KenPom, proving how weak the rest of the conference is compared to the Blue Devils.
The point is, if Duke can beat Auburn, Jon Scheyer and co. prove they can beat legit national championship contender levels of competition. With a loss and three losses versus three ranked teams in the non-con, it won’t even matter that much if Duke rolls through the ACC given how weak it is.
The only ranked opportunities on the resume all being losses can prove to really hurt the Blue Devils in March, making a win on Wednesday night crucial for the Blue Devils’ seeding hopes in the NCAA Tournament.
