Purdue Basketball: Penn State Preview

The Pennsylvania State University (7-1) – Ken Pom #40

Basic Information

Location: State College, Pennsylvania

Type of School: Public Land-Grant Research University

Mascot: Nittany Lions

Head Coach – Mike Rhoades

Seasons at Penn State: 2 (including the current season)

Penn State Record: 23-18

Other Head Coaching Jobs:

Rice (2014-2017): 47-52

VCU (2017-2023): 129-61

Career Record: 199-131

Regular Season Conference Championships: 1 (VCU)

Conference Tournament Championships: 1 (VCU)

NCAA Appearances: 3 (0-3)

Final 4 Appearances: 0

Kenpom Style of Play

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Adj. Efficiency: 115.6 (32)

Avg. Poss. Length: 15.3 (20)

Defense

Adj. Efficiency: 98.3 (57)

Avg. Poss. Length: 17.1 (151)

Tempo

Adj. Tempo: 71.7 (30)

Kenpom 4 Factors

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Effective FG%: 59.2 (9)

Turnover %: 16.3 (109)

Off. Reb. %: 34.4 (69)

FTA/FGA: 40.5 (57)

Defense

Effective FG%: 47.8 (93)

Turnover %: 23.4 (10)

Off. Reb. %: 27.7 (107)

FTA/FGA: 32 (149)

Personnel

Penn State on Offense

If you like point guard play, make sure to tune in tonight, because the two best in the Big 10 will be getting after it in State College. Ace Baldwin is the center piece of the Penn State offense; everything revolves around him. The Nittany Lions essentially play 5-out with the post open to give Baldwin full access to the lane. Occasionally they’ll run through a set and the center will stay on the block for the second action, but in general, it’s Baldwin at the top of the key pulling the strings with an open lane.

They want to play fast and take the first shot available in transition. On misses they find Baldwin with an outlet pass and the offense starts. This isn’t a team you can job down the court against, because they will attack after misses and makes. The trust Ace to run the show at a high tempo and find 8-10 easy points a game by catching the opposition standing around.

In the half court, the pick and roll combination of Baldwin and center Yanic Konan Niederhauser is tough to stop. Y.K.N. (Penn State’s equivalent to T.K.R. in terms of name abbreviations) is an interesting player. He’s 7’0”, 250 but he’s more of a rim runner and finisher than a post player. His agility is impressive for someone of his size and Baldwin loves to throw the lob up and let him finish above the rim and let Y.K.N. go up and get it with his impossibly long arms. I expect a heavy dose of high pick and rolls from Penn State and look for more lobs against the Boilermakers tonight than you’ve seen over the last 3-seasons combined.

When Baldwin isn’t throwing the lob to Y.K.N., he’s driving and kicking to wing Zach Hicks. The 6’8” sharpshooter leads the team in attempts (48), makes (24) and percentage (50) from outside the arc. Penn State wants to put Hicks in the corner, run the pick and roll and have Baldwin punish any help coming from Hicks’ defender. If you leave Hicks, Baldwin will find him, and Hicks will make you pay. Virginia Tech left him alone and Hicks went off for 19 points on 5-9 shooting, with many of those attempts coming off of an Ace Baldwin assist (he had 10 for the game).

Finally, the Nittany Lions love to cut to the basket. I covered their game against Clemson and I’m not sure I’ve seen a team outside of the Ivy League score on so many cuts to the basket. Ace Baldwin always has his head up, and when his guys cut, he finds them. When he’s off the ball, Baldwin will cut and look for and easy bucket. Penn State has been dominant against bad competition this season because they find easy looks and convert. They’re 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage for a reason. Simply put, they end up getting a bunch of open shots around the rim because or Baldwin’s ability to find the open man.

Penn State on Defense

Penn State is a majority half court, man-to-man team, but they do have a full court, diamond press that they like to deploy at the end of halves as well.

I won’t lie, Penn State is annoying to play against on offense. They swarm, poke at the ball, jump passing lanes, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser is an eraser when he’s allowed to come from the weak side as a help defender.

The good news is that Clemson gave Purdue a good look at what Penn State struggles to defend in the Nittany Lions only loss of the season. The Tigers played small and used 6’8” Ian Schieffelin to facilitate the offense from the top of the key. That pulled Y.K.N. away from the hoop and allowed Schieffelin to either attack off the dribble from the top of the key and finish or hit open shooters spotted up around the perimeter. Schieffelin and T.K.R. are almost identical players. Ian is a little better in terms of passing and rebounding, and T.K.R. is a better post finisher but overall, they play the same type of game. Schieffelin won the game for Clemson putting up 18 points, 13 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals, and 2 blocks while only committing 2 turnovers. T.K.R. can win this game for Purdue in a similar way. I don’t think you’ll see the same number of assists and rebounds, but you could see significantly more points from Purdue’s star.

It will be interesting to see what Penn State does with Smith on the perimeter. While I’d like to see T.K.R. used more as a facilitator in this game, everything will still run through Braden Smith. I expect Coach Rhodes to try and make Smith more of a facilitator out of the pick and roll. I expect them to plaster to shooters and make Braden prove he can finish at the rim over an athletic 7’0” shot blocker. This could be a game where both T.K.R. and Smith struggle to finish at the rim in the pick and roll as long as Y.K.N. is on the floor. If Penn State lets Braden get to the rim, he needs to get into the body of the shot blocker and finish strong. The best way to stop Y.K.N. from short circuiting the Purdue pick and roll is to get him off the court. The Boilermakers can do some of that via T.K.R. in the paint, but it would help if Smith could draw a foul or two driving to the basket on the Penn State big man.

Purdue also needs to be ready for the full court press. Penn State can spring it at any time, and they’re going to need cheap baskets to win this one. They shied away from pressing Clemson, but the Tigers essentially play two-point guards at all times. I expect them to press Purdue’s favored lineup of Smith, Loyer, Colvin, Heide, T.K.R. more than usual to try and exploit the lack of auxiliary ball handlers. This could be a game where either Harris or Cox gets more run to help Smith with the press if Penn State decides to lean on it more this game.

Overall

Penn State’s a good team that could provide some match-up problems for the Boilermakers, but I go back to their loss against Clemson and see a way forward. The Tigers were able to slow the game down, and make Ace Baldwin try and win the game on his own in the half-court. Ace put up 20 and 11 and Clemson won 75-67.

I see Coach Painter deploying a similar strategy tonight. Purdue has the better team in the half court and will the game if it’s played one possession at a time. The Boilermakers could struggle if this game is played in transition, and that’s the type of game they’re going to try and lure Purdue into. Braden can’t take the bait and settle for a look early in the clock that he could get late in the clock. The only team that has managed to slow down Penn State, beat them.

The formula is simple. Don’t turn it over, make Penn State work on defense, and make Ace Baldwin do it on his own. The execution, as always, is much easier to pull off from behind a keyboard.

Prediction

KenPom

Purdue: 77

Penn State: 75

Drew

Purdue: 79

Penn State: 67

I don’t want to be disrespectful to Penn State. I wouldn’t be shocked if they win this game. Ace Baldwin is the real deal and he’s the type of player that can win a game on his own (Purdue should make him try). At the same time, I like Purdue’s experience and shooters to win out in the end. T.K.R. makes a statement in this one.

The Big10 P.O.T.Y. trophy is going to have to be pried out of West Lafayette.