Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (hamstring/calf) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Tampa Bay Buccaneers No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans has been managing two different hamstring strains in the same leg since mid-October, resulting in a three-game absence in Weeks 8-10. Hamstring strains carry a 30.0 percent weekly re-injury rate, per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Edwin Porras’ 2024 Injury Prone Draft Guide. Per DPT Adam Hutchison’s 2023 Injury Report, wide receivers average 1.8 games missed due to calf strains and experience a 10.0 percent re-injury rate. Evans was unable to practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
Tampa Bay has a chance to take control of the NFC South this week but their 6.5-point home-favorite spread suggests Evans’ presence may not be necessary to secure a win against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders.
If Evans is active, fantasy managers can start him as a highly volatile WR2.
Tampa Bay tight end Cade Otton should see an increased target share even if Evans plays, likely in a limited capacity. During Evans’ three-game absence, Otton led the team in both total targets (28) and first-read targets (17) while ranking second on the team in yards per route run (YPRR, 1.88).
Las Vegas’s tight end-coverage unit has allowed the fourth-most expected point added (EPA) per play (0.211) among NFL teams in Weeks 9-13.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving (hip/back) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie running back Bucky Irving picked up his apparent combination hip and back injury on a first-half kick return in Week 13. He was able to return for the second half, en route to a career-high 25 rushing attempts but he was sidelined during Wednesday and Thursday practices this week.
As mentioned in Evans’ section above, Tampa Bay enters Week 14 as a touchdown-plus favorite against Las Vegas, suggesting the team’s biggest offensive difference makers are not necessarily critical for a Tampa Bay victory.
No. 3 running back Sean Tucker would be RB2-viable if Irving were to miss Week 14, as would No. 2 running back Rachaad White in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Tucker quietly leads Tampa Bay running backs in yards per rushing attempt (6.3), though he trails both players in missed tackles forced (0.07) and yards after contact (2.6) averages.
Las Vegas’ running back-coverage unit has notably allowed the sixth-most EPA per play (0.173) among NFL teams in Weeks 9-13.
Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (ankle/calf) @ Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Sunday, 4:05 pm Eastern
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III suffered both an ankle sprain and a calf strain against the New York Jets in Week 13. DPT Jeff Mueller noticed Walker limping off-field after being tackled by New York cornerback D.J. Reed. Walker practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday but was unable to participate on Thursday, jeopardizing his Week 14 availability, though Seattle is known to rest players on Thursday occasionally.
The team could opt to handle Walker’s calf component conservatively by holding him out for at least one game, given the potential for Achilles tendon involvement if the injury were to worsen.
Seattle’s No. 2 running back Zach Charbonnet remains available in more than 48.0 percent of both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. Add him immediately.
Among Seattle running backs since the team’s Week 10 bye, Charbonnet owns a 23.3 percent rushing share (14 rushing attempts) and a 4.8 percent team target share (four) while logging an 81.5 percent third- and fourth-and-long positional snap share (22 snaps) and a 27.3 percent positional two-minute drill snaps share (six snaps). He finished as the RB48, RB50 and RB25 in PPR scoring, respectively, during that span.
Among NFL teams in Weeks 9-13, Arizona’s run defense ranks 15th in EPA allowed per play (-0.105) while tying for the 13th-most missed tackles (23).
New Orleans Saints TE Taysom Hill (knee, out for year) @ New York Giants
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
New Orleans Saints tight end and do-it-all offensive player Taysom Hill suffered a season-ending ACL-plus injury in Week 13. DPT Mueller expressed concern for PCL involvement, as well as a bone bruise. Hill (62 touches) ranks second on the team in total touches and New Orleans also lost wide receivers Chris Olave (33 touches) and Rashid Shaheed (26 touches), who rank fourth and sixth on the team, respectively.
Hill was increasingly involved in the offensive game plan from Week 8-on, totaling 46 touches, including 25 rushing attempts and 28 targets, over the last five weeks. He trails only No. 1 running back Alvin Kamara (120 touches, 95 rushing attempts and 34 targets) in all categories.
The 4-8 Saints currently rank 12th in the NFC, though as discussed above, the 6-6 Falcons and Buccaneers have hardly run away with the NFC South. Reducing the 29-year-old Kamara’s workload for a worthy player could pay dividends both later this season and in 2025.
Second-year running back Kendre Miller’s 2022-to-2024 injury history includes a Grade 2 MCL sprain, a nonspecific knee sprain, three hamstring strains and one ankle sprain. Per Miller, former head coach Dennis Allen placed Miller on injured reserve on November 2nd despite Miller having resumed running at full speed in his latest post-hamstring-strain recovery. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi told reporters that he assured Miller that the young player now has a clean slate.
Miller is now practicing in full and has an opportunity to seize the No. 2 offensive role against a New York Giants defense that placed star defender, nose tackle Dexter Lawrence (elbow) on injured reserve this week. Among Giants defenders with at least 100 run-defense snaps, Lawrence (83.8 PFF run-defense grade) is the only Giant to earn a 78.0 PFF run-defense grade or better. New York’s 4.65-yard average depth of tackle ranks fifth-deepest among NFL teams in Weeks 9-13.
Among New Orleans players with at least 25 rushing attempts over the last two seasons, Miller (50 rushing attempts) ranks first in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.30) and is the only qualifying player to average 0.20-plus. He is available in more than 94.0 percent of both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. He can be started as a highly volatile flex option or safely stashed on benches as a wait-and-see option.
Chicago Bears WR and RBs @ San Francisco 49ers
Date/Time: 4:25 pm Eastern
Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore (quadriceps) and running backs D’Andre Swift (quadriceps) and Roschon Johnson (concussion) missed Week 14’s Wednesday and Thursday practices, severely jeopardizing their availability against the San Francisco 49ers. Chicago’s first-round rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze is available in more than 38.0 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. He warrants WR3/4 consideration. No. 3 running back Travis Homer is worth adding for running back-needy teams.
San Francisco’s defensive health continues to be an issue, softening the would-be difficult matchup.
Among NFL teams in Weeks 9-13, San Francisco ranks outside the top 20 in both EPA allowed per pass play (0.173) and EPA allowed per run play (-0.045) and the latter unit notably ties for an NFL-high 30 missed run-defense tackles during that span.
Chicago tight end Cole Kmet warrants TE1 streaming consideration and his ceiling notably rises if one or more of the injured players is unable to play. San Francisco’s tight end-coverage unit ranks 24th in EPA allowed per play (0.150) among NFL teams in Weeks 9-13.
