While nothing may ever top the controversy of Florida State not being selected for the 2023 College Football Playoff, there’s still plenty of debate on who should be in and who should be out this season.
And, no, expanding to 12 teams hasn’t made it any easier.
Some teams are virtual locks for the playoff at this point. Other teams are faced with a “win or go home” opportunity during conference championship weekend. The others, a handful of teams on the bubble, need some help from those playing this weekend and the selection committee… and even still, it may not be enough.
Keep reading for the latest on the College Football Playoff: who’s in, who’s out, and who needs a miracle.
Who’s in the College Football Playoff?
This is prefaced by saying no team is a lock for the playoff until the committee releases its final standings on Selection Day, which is Sunday, December 8. Still, the Week 13 rankings all but solidified some teams for the playoff.
The Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Mountain West are in position to receive the guaranteed bids given to the top five conference champions in the rankings. Two of those conference championship games – the Big Ten and SEC matchups – are more than likely “seeding games,” with the winner getting a first-round bye, but the loser is not expected to be eliminated from the playoff. Those games will see No. 1 Oregon face No. 3 Penn State in the Big Ten title game and No. 2 Texas face No. 5 Georgia in the SEC title game.
For the ACC, Big 12, and Mountain West, those conferences are likely to only see their champions get in, with the only potential exception being No. 8 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson in the ACC title game – if SMU loses, the Mustangs could still sneak in to the playoff. The Big 12 game will see No. 15 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State, with the Sun Devils favored. The Mountain West game will see No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 20 UNLV.
Other teams that are virtual locks at this point: No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Tennessee, and No. 9 Indiana.
That means 11 of the 12 spots in the playoff are all but accounted for, leaving one spot up for grabs (and to debate endlessly).
Who’s out of the College Football Playoff?
There are four bubble teams for the last CFP spot (more on that in a minute), but there are others in the top 25 who have not been previously mentioned and are eliminated from contention. Those teams include No. 18 BYU, No. 19 Missouri, No. 21 Illinois, No. 22 Syracuse, No. 23 Colorado, No. 24 Army, and No. 25 Memphis.
The 2024 College Football Playoff bubble teams
The four teams who should be included in the discussion for the final playoff spot are Nos. 11-14 in the Week 14 rankings: Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. While there is still plenty of debate raging about who should be in and why, it seems the committee has already made its decision by putting Alabama the highest of the four in the latest rankings.
When the Week 14 rankings were released on Tuesday, December 3, CFP selection committee chair Warde Manuel said the decision to rank Alabama over Miami came down to both teams’ “body of work.” The 10-2 Hurricanes have lost two of their last three – 28-23 to Georgia Tech (finished 6-4) and 42-38 to No. 22 Syracuse (9-3). Miami narrowly escaped further losses against Virginia Tech (won 38-34), California (39-38), and Louisville (52-45). Meanwhile, the 9-3 Crimson Tide had a roller coaster season, losing to a volatile Vanderbilt team (40-35), No. 7 (then-No. 11) Tennessee (24-17), and most concerning, Oklahoma (24-3). Likely a key factor in that decision: the Tide had a stronger strength of schedule than the Hurricanes, playing four ranked teams and, of those ranked matchups, beating Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. Compare that to the Hurricanes, who dropped their only ranked matchup to Syracuse.
Then there are Ole Miss and South Carolina – not on that 11 vs. 12 bubble, but still strong three-loss teams. The Rebels most notably beat No. 5 (then-No. 3) Georgia in a 28-10 beat down, but they lost to Kentucky, LSU, and Florida. South Carolina, one of the hottest teams in college football to close the regular season, has won its past six games since losing to Alabama, 27-25, in early October. Those include ranked wins over Missouri and, most recently, Clemson, but they also lost to Ole Miss the week prior to the Bama game and to LSU in September.
How will the 2024 conference championship weekend affect the College Football Playoff?
Conference championship weekend is most important for the ACC, Big 12, and Mountain West conferences, who are likely to see only their champions get in. (The only potential exception being No. 8 SMU could still sneak in if the Mustangs lose to No. 17 Clemson.) The Big 12 game will see No. 15 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State, with the Sun Devils favored. The Mountain West game will see No. 10 Boise State vs. No. 20 UNLV.
After the Week 14 rankings were announced Tuesday, Manuel pointed out that, with no further “data points” to evaluate, the teams not playing this weekend are unlikely to be moved around other than shifting up and down depending on how the conference championships play out. That is why, of those bubble teams previously discussed, it seems Alabama is the one that will get in barring a major shake-up by the committee.
How many teams make the College Football Playoff in 2024-25?
The College Football Playoff expanded from 4 to 12 teams this season. More on that here.
