Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane to leave the country on Saturday, according to several media reports. His exit comes 12 days after a surprise uprising made a lightning dash to the capital of Damascus, capturing several major cities along the way. Meanwhile, there are claims that the jet carrying Assad either was shot down or had mechanical problems and crashed over Northwestern Syria.
“Assad left the country for an undisclosed location, fleeing ahead of insurgents who said they had entered Damascus after a stunning advance across the country,” The Associated Press reported, citing an interview with Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Abdurrahman told the AP that Assad took a flight Sunday from Damascus.
“Bashar Assad leaves for Russia with his family, and is expected to deliver his resignation speech in the coming hours,” the Step News Agency reported on Twitter.
We must stress that the situation is very fluid and Assad’s fate remains questionable at this time. New information could significantly change the prevailing narrative circulating in the media at this time.
“The Syrian factions announced, at dawn on Sunday, that President Bashar al-Assad had left Damascus, calling on the displaced abroad to return to ‘Free Syria’ after declaring Damascus ‘free,’ while the commander of the Military Operations Administration issued a directive to his forces in Damascus to stay away from public institutions,” Al Hadath TV channel reported. “The factions said in messages published via the Telegram that Bashar al-Assad had fled and ‘we declare the city of Damascus free’ adding ‘after 50 years of oppression under the rule of the Baath, and 13 years of tyranny.’”
The official Iranian Press TV also confirmed the end of the Assad regime.
“President Assad’s rule ended: Syrian army command tells officers,” Press TV reported on Telegram. “The Syrian army command has notified officers that President Bashar al-Assad’s rule has ended as militants enter the capital Damascus, an officer says.”
There are unconfirmed reports that the Il-76 Ilyushin transport jet that was supposedly carrying him was either shot down or suffered a mechanical problem. Based on its location, it may have been trying to reach Russia’s airbase in Latakia, Syria. This has long been seen as among the safest place for the Syrian strongman.
“Unconfirmed information is being circulated about the sudden descent of the plane that was reportedly carrying Assad after it disappeared from radar and dropped suddenly from an altitude of over 3,650 meters to 1,070 meters in a few minutes, just outside Lebanese airspace north of Akkar,” Egyptian journalist Khaled Mahmoued posited on Twitter. “3D flight radar data of the plane suspected of carrying Bashar al-Assad indicates that it crashed. The Syrian Air IL-76 aircraft’s altitude dropped suddenly, and it seems it was shot down.”
Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad. Russia, because they are so tied up…
A Syrian IL-76T coming from Damascus lost fast altitude near Homs and possibly crashed west of that city. There are rumors that it was Assad‘s plane. pic.twitter.com/K6IvQILlsw
3D flight data from FlightRadar24 indicates the jet crashed.
‼
‼
‼
“3D flight data on the plane widely suspected of carrying Bashar al-Assad on the run suggests it has crashed (if the data is correct). Suicide and sabotage are being considered.”
According to unverified information, the plane that might have been carrying Assad out of Damascus had gone into sharp descent and disappeared from the radars.
“We have nothing to provide regarding the recent events in Syria,” a U.S. defense official told The War Zone in response to our questions about Assad fleeing and the status of the aircraft. “Even though we are monitoring the situation closely, the US mission in Syria remains unchanged. For more information, we refer you to the White House.”
Umayyad Square in the heart of Damascus was the scene of celebrations as people rejoiced over the fall of Assad.
The Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army made it to the heart of Damascus and was seen occupying Umayyad Square.
The streets of Damascus were littered with Syrian Arab Army uniforms discarded by troops once loyal to Assad.
Earlier in the day, tanks were reportedly seen heading to Umayyad Square which leads to several strategic locations, including the presidential palace.
Tanks in the streets of #Damascus now. They re heading to the Omayyad Square which leads to several strategic locations, including the presidential palace
Some of Assad’s troops reportedly fled east across the border into Iraq.
In the hours before Assad reportedly left, TWZ posted imagery showing signs of a possible evacuation at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Multiple airlifters arrived at the base, including IL-76s and one AN-124. The An-72 is usually forward-based there. There also appears to be a Su-24 on the runway. This was a major uptick in airlifted presence at the base compared to days past.
Signs of possible evacuation at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Multiple airlifters have arrived at the base. 3 IL-76s and 1 AN-124. The An-72 is usually forward based there. There also appears to be a Su-24 on the runway. Major uptick in airlifted presence. Expect more. pic.twitter.com/uFpCLGpJ4g
The developments today culminate an uprising that saw anti-regime forces quickly sack Aleppo, then Hama and Homs in the central part of the country, while U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces captured towns in the north and east of Syria and Druze militias took over former regime territory in the south.
The status of the Alawite enclave on the Mediterranean Sea coast, where Syria’s port facilities and Russia’s bases are located, remains unclear. Assad is an Alawite and he enjoys very strong support from the ethnic group within Syria’s power architecture. The official Syrian SAMA-TV news channel claimed on Telegram that forces loyal to Assad had not withdrawn.
“There is no truth to the news circulated by terrorist media platforms about the withdrawal of the armed forces from the northern Latakia countryside, and the General Command confirms that all this news is false,” SAMA-TV claimed.
President Joe Biden and his team “are closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and staying in constant touch with regional partners,” according to the White House press pool.
President-elect Donald Trump hinted at what his foreign policy agenda might look like in regard to Syria, saying the U.S., which has about 900 troops in Syria, should not be involved in that country.
“There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid,” Trump said on social media. “In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Israel, meanwhile, said it had reinforced the occupied Golan Heights border with Syria. Jerusalem is eyeing these events warily, wondering what stance HTS and other rebel groups will take toward Israel.
“The Chief of the General Staff emphasized the high level of offensive and defensive readiness, the reinforcement of troops along the border, and the continued monitoring of developments,” the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Telegram. “He also stressed that, alongside these efforts, we are not intervening in events in Syria, are working to thwart and prevent threats in the area, and are preparing plans for various options. Due to developments, the IDF has reinforced its deployment along the border, including intelligence and reconnaissance units. Ground and aerial forces have been bolstered along the border, and sector readiness has been heightened.”
There are unconfirmed reports that the Israeli forces have also advanced into Syria, to create a “buffer zone” as a precaution. The IDF has not commented on this yet.
After the collapse of the Assad regime overnight, Syrian reports claim that Israeli tanks crossed the border in the Golan Heights.
The unconfirmed reports say that Israeli forces pushed into the buffer zone in the Quneitra area, and launched artillery shelling in the area.
IDF MOVES INTO SYRIAN BUFFER ZONE: The IDF has launched a limited ground operation in the Quneitra buffer zone area of Syria in order to strengthen the defense of the border.
Furthermore, in accordance with the assessment of the situation in the Northern Command and…
The IDF Northern Command activated a contingency plan to bolster defenses along the Israel-Syria border to “thwart any potential incursions into Israel from Syrian territory,” Israel’s Ynet news outlet reported.
Israeli forces “reportedly crossed the 1974 ceasefire line on the Golan Heights to establish defensive positions in the demilitarized zone,” the publication reported. “Artillery fire was used to deter hostile forces, and airstrikes targeted Syrian arms depots to prevent them from falling into rebel hands.”
Israeli tanks and infantry units “were mobilized to the Alpha Line on the Golan Heights as part of the new deployment,” Ynet stated, citing foreign media.
Next, “Israel may consider taking over some areas inside Syria as a buffer zone to counter emerging threats,” journalist Nadav Eyal wrote. “Alternatively, Israel could declare a demilitarized zone on the Syrian side of the border and enforce it through artillery and airstrikes.”
Israel activates emergency plan to bolster defenses on Syria border, @ynetalerts says; tanks & infantry forces mobilized to Alpha Line on Golan Heights; IDF may declare & enforce demilitarized zone in Syrian territory. Here’s the full report
Today’s developments are nothing less than stunning. After 24 years of often brutal rule (and more than 50 years under his father), including a civil war that began in 2011 and displaced millions and killed well over 300,000 civilians, Assad’s reign is over, although his status remains unclear at the moment. What comes next is a major question, including what stance the anti-Assad forces, some of which have concerning ties, will take now that they have gone from a rebel force to a ruling one.
This is a rapidly developing story and we will update it as more information comes in.
UPDATE: 1:15AM EST—
The possible downing of the Il-76 is worth discussing further. While little is known about the circumstances at this time, there is a precedent for friendly fire incidents over Syria. Syrian air defenders shot down Russia’s Il-20 Coot surveillance aircraft in 2018, killing all onboard. The timing of that friendly fire incident was during a moment when Israel was supposedly operating in or near Syrian airspace. While that may have been a complex situation, the state of confusion over the last 24 hours is truly unprecedented, with both Russian and Syrian air defense units operating under deteriorating conditions with broken or non-existent air defense networks, making the risk of such mistakes extreme. Even under far more favorable conditions, friendly fire shoot downs have occurred in recent years, including multiple ones over Russia near the Ukrainian border and the shoot down of an airliner by Iran shortly after their ballistic missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq.
There is also the stark reality that anti-Assad forces have captured many anti-aircraft systems, including multiple types of SAM systems. Capturing them and operating them are two different things, but if they were able to operate them, doing so would create extreme risk to anything flying in the airspace. This is especially true due the lack of a greater air defense network and the situational awareness that provides, as well as the possibility of poorly trained operators or those under duress.
The IL-76 went down over/near rebel held territory in the same general region as Russia’s bases and an area (the coastal region) that had not been sacked by anti-Assad forces.
It’s also worth noting that there have been reports of Iranian aircraft being denied access to western Syria by the Israeli Air Force under the threat of being shot down as they flew toward their destination.
According to the New York Times; Two Flights by an Iranian Private Airline from Tehran to Damascus were turned away last week, after Israel had threatened to Shoot Down the Aircraft if they entered Syrian Airspace, fearing that they contained Iranian Troops or Weapons. pic.twitter.com/yPBq0Vx7Xe
Once again, this is simply some added context. It’s possible the aircraft went down for other reasons and its fate remains unclear. We should find out more what happened to the aircraft, and possibly Assad in the process, in the coming hours.
Meanwhile, scenes from Damascus are historic. Statues are being toppled and regime installations are being explored by rebel forces:
A Banner showing the Late Commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani alongside the Late Supreme-Leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah was torn down last night by Syrian Residents, at the Iranian Embassy Compound in Damascus. pic.twitter.com/0cLotzxuJQ
Celebratory Gunfire heard across the Syrian Capital of Damascus, as Residents wake up to the News that the Assad Regime has Collapsed and that the Rebels have captured the City. pic.twitter.com/CEhHeQ5SP7
Israel confirms its buffer zone operation into Syria:
In accordance with the situational assessment following the recent events in #Syria, including the entry of armed personnel into the buffer zone, the IDF has deployed forces in the buffer zone and in several other places necessary for its defense, to ensure the safety of the… pic.twitter.com/Nsno9GBWB4
Reuters is reporting that its sources say there was a high probability that Assad crashed on the IL-76, stating:
“A Syrian Air plane took off from Damascus airport around the time the capital was reported to have been taken by rebels, according to data from the Flightradar website.
The aircraft initially flew towards Syria’s coastal region, a stronghold of Assad’s Alawite sect, but then made an abrupt U-turn and flew in the opposite direction for a few minutes before disappearing off the map.
Reuters could not immediately ascertain who was on board.
Two Syrian sources said there was a very high probability that Assad may have been killed in a plane crash as it was a mystery why the plane took a surprise U turn and disappeared off the map according to data from the Flightradar website.“
As daylight set across Syria more celebratory gatherings and statue topplings occurred:
The Residents of Arwad Island, off the Coast of Tartus, celebrate the Collapse of the Assad Regime by toppling a Statue of Former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad. pic.twitter.com/Q1BuuIk4Js
IDF struck what it says was a chemical weapons facility to keep whatever was there out of the hands of Syria’s new rulers:
The IDF struck a chemical weapons factory tied to former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime to prevent rebel seizure, The Jerusalem Post confirmed.@jeremybob1 reports. https://t.co/BRVsMrBSUC
The U.S. says it is maintaining its troop presence in Syria:
The United States said it will continue to maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State.https://t.co/YHQ2eEe0C8
