Whoever hoists the national championship trophy in Atlanta in late January will certainly have earned it. That’s one of my main takeaways as I dive deeper into the first 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.
That’s certainly true for No. 1 Oregon, which would have to go through either Ohio State or Tennessee just to make the semifinals. That the path is so difficult for the No. 1 overall seed is a problem caused by an imbalanced bracket; because the top four seeds are designated as spots for the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily the four best teams of the 12 in the field.
Ultimately, I trust the Ducks to survive and advance in this format. They’re the only unbeaten team in FBS for a reason; no one else weathered the ups and downs of a college football season as well as they did. They won their clunkers (vs. Idaho and Wisconsin), and they also beat the best teams they played all year (Ohio State, Penn State and Boise State). They’ve been consistent in a season that featured so many teams that weren’t. And I trust veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel more than I trust any other quarterback in this field.
Oregon was my preseason pick to win it all. Now that the official bracket is out, the Ducks remain my pick to win it all.
As you can see from my picks, I’m very high on Notre Dame. I believe that the Fighting Irish’s elite defense coupled with a great rushing attack sets them up quite well for what’s ahead. Their strengths will remain strengths no matter the weather conditions in their first-round game in South Bend (and their defensive front should be able to tee off against an Indiana offensive line that struggled mightily against Michigan and Ohio State, the only two teams it has faced so far with defensive fronts featuring future pros — just like Notre Dame’s). I do think Notre Dame will run into issues against Oregon’s high-powered offense if that ends up being the championship game matchup. I’m still not sure if the Irish can come back in a game if they trail by multiple scores because we don’t know how effective and efficient the pass game is against good defenses. And I think that would happen against the Ducks, who can strike quickly and would put a ton of pressure on Riley Leonard and co. to keep pace.
Georgia announced on Monday that starting quarterback Carson Beck is exploring treatment options for the elbow injury he sustained in the SEC championship game and that there is no timetable on his return. It’s hard to have a ton of faith in Georgia without knowing Beck’s availability (and if he does play in the CFP, whether he has any limitations). I’m not sure I would have picked the ‘Dawgs to advance past the quarterfinals even without the injury, though, considering how inconsistent this team has been all season. Georgia at its best (vs. Texas, for example) is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country. But at its worst, it’s very beatable. Which is why I’ve got the Irish knocking ’em out in the quarterfinal round.
Penn State has one of the most advantageous paths to the semifinals, drawing No. 3 seed Boise State as its quarterfinal opponent if it beats SMU at home in the first round. And while I think SMU’s speed could pose some problems for the Penn State secondary, I think the Nittany Lions take care of business against the Mustangs and pick apart Boise State’s defense as well. As long as the Penn State offense fires close to all cylinders like it did in the Big Ten championship game (ideally without those Drew Allar turnovers), this team is certainly talented enough to beat both of these opponents.
I’ve got Texas beating Clemson in the first round but losing to red-hot Arizona State in the quarterfinals. The concerns I have about the Longhorns were apparent in both losses to Georgia, and even though the Sun Devils don’t have as much total talent as the Bulldogs, I think they can completely overwhelm an opponent, like we saw in the Big 12 title game. I’m worried about the limitations of the Texas offense. Can the Longhorns finish drives? Can they run the ball against good defensive fronts? Can Quinn Ewers avoid back-breaking turnovers? I think I know the answers against Clemson. But Arizona State’s run defense ranks ahead of Georgia’s. If the Sun Devils can make Texas one-dimensional … If they can get off the field on third down … If Kenny Dillingham can light a fire under his guys … I think we could see Arizona State extend its magical season. Well, for one more game.
I’ve still got Oregon coming out on top when all is said and done. And yes, Dan Lanning, we will certainly be entertained.
