In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Bills vs. Lions
You don’t need to be told to be bullish on Josh Allen or his No. 1 target, Khalil Shakir, headed into their Week 15 matchup against the Lions. Allen and Shakir are (very) likely to cook against the pass-funnel Detroit defense in a game featuring a downright gaudy 55-point Vegas total.
The Lions, facing a 60 percent neutral pass rate in 2024, have been among the league’s most reliable pass funnels all season. Though three of their past four opponents have been (slightly) below their expected pass rate, the Lions remain a definite pass funnel.
Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and whoever starts at tight end for Buffalo become far more interesting in such a matchup. It’s Cooper, not Shakir, who leads the Bills in targets and air yards over the past couple games as his route participation rate inches ever upward. Add a dash of drop back volume for the Bills in Week 15 against Detroit and Cooper — who was targeted on a ludicrous 53 percent of his routes in Week 14 — looks more like a top-24 option rather than a top-36 option if you squint hard enough.
Dalton Kincaid could be interesting in 12-team formats if he returns from a lingering knee injury. The Lions, however, are a nightmare matchup for tight ends and have been for some time.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Chargers vs. Bucs
Justin Herbert and company are once again squaring off against a supreme pass-funnel defense. We saw this play out in Week 12 against Baltimore — the league’s most pronounced pass funnel — when the Bolts were 8 percent above their expected pass rate. Herbert dropped back on a season-high 75 percent of LA’s offensive plays against the Ravens.
We should see more of the same against a Tampa defense that has seen nine of its 13 opponents go well above their expected pass rate in 2024. Bucs opponents have passed the ball at a 63 percent clip in neutral situations, the second highest mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Chargers run game has tanked since JK Dobbins’ injury. The Gus Bus-led LA backfield has the league’s tenth lowest rushing success rate and the fourth lowest rush EPA over the past two weeks.
This should be welcomed news for Ladd McConkey if the rookie is able to play through the shoulder and knee ailments that kept him sidelined in Week 14. McConkey, before the injuries, was emerging as a target and air yards hog in the pass-first LA offense.
Josh Palmer, who I wrote about in this week’s Regression Files, and Quentin Johnston should also be natural beneficiaries of a pass-heavy attack in Week 15. Don’t forget about TE Stone Smartt as another guy who could see inflated route and target numbers against the pass-funnel Bucs. With Will Dissly (shoulder) expected to miss Week 15 — and possibly Week 16 — Smartt profiles as the primary pass-catching tight end for Herbert.
The speedy-for-a-tight-end Smartt last week against the Chiefs drew a target on 25 percent of his pass routes and caught three balls for 54 yards. On half of his routes against KC, Smartt lined up in the slot or out wide. That’s a pretty good tight end profile, and one that could be surprisingly useful for fantasy purposes in Week 15 against a Tampa defense allowing the sixth most tight end receptions this season.
In limited route running duty late last season, Smartt proved something of a target commander, seeing a look on 19 percent of his pass routes. Many are saying it’s Stone Smartt Szn.
Run Funnel Matchups
Cowboys vs. Panthers
I’m not going to harp on this matchup all that much because I think Rico Dowdle has established himself as very much viable in 12-team leagues. Dowdle has seen 40 of the Cowboys’ 46 running back carries over the past two weeks while running about 48 percent of the pass routes. It’s a good profile, though it will be sensitive to game script.
Probably that shouldn’t be an issue in Week 15 against Carolina, the third most pronounced run funnel defense in the NFL. Panthers opponents have gone run heavy all year; only Washington has faced a lower neutral pass rate than Carolina. And if you’re wondering if teams have become more balanced or pass heavy against the Panthers amid Bryce Young’s almost stunning levels of good QB play, they have not.
The Cowboys have been balanced in neutral game script since Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending hamstring injury.
The Panthers remain exploitable on the ground. No team has given up a higher rush EPA since Week 8, and only four teams — including Dallas — have allowed a higher rate of rush yards before contact in 2024. Fantasy managers need to figure out a way to jam Dowdle into their lineups in Week 15.
Jaguars vs. Jets
Predicting game script in a 2024 Jaguars game is a fool’s errand. I’m Rotoworld’s resident fool, so here goes.
If the Mac Jones-led Jags can hang with the miserable Jets — a defense allowing the NFL’s fourth highest EPA per play since Week 8 — Tank Bigsby could benefit in a big way. A week after leading the Jacksonville backfield with 18 rushes to only four for Travis Etienne, Bigsby in Week 15 goes against the league’s fourth most pronounced run funnel defense.
Outside of last week’s overtime loss to the Dolphins, the Jets have seen opponents go under their expected pass rate in almost every game this season. Teams continually avoid the New York secondary and take advantage of a (relatively) weak front seven.
Twenty touches is certainly within the range of outcomes for Bigsby if the Jaguars don’t implode against the Jets. That includes, of course, valuable touches inside the 10 yard line, where Bigsby has been efficient in 2024. He could be useful as an RB2/3 for running back-needy teams in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
