Game of the week
Buffalo Bills (10-3) v Detroit Lions (12-1)
The contenders for the No 1 seed in each conference collide in Detroit. The bulldozing Lions want to keep their foot on the accelerator to fend off the Eagles at the top of the NFC while the Bills chase a two-game deficit to the Chiefs in the AFC. Sheer offensive might from the NFL’s two top scoring sides that average a tick over 30 points per game each will be the order of the day in the democracy v the dictatorship.
Detroit’s team-led pick-your-poison approach channelled through a devastating running back tandem and cool-as-ice quarterback Jared Goff to keep points flowing while the one-man wrecking ball Josh Allen, fresh from scoring six total touchdowns against the Rams, will pose a constant threat in the air and on the ground for Buffalo.
A single stop by either defense could be the difference in a potential warmup for the Super Bowl. First a vital victory needs to be claimed to edge closer to the all-important top seeding.
What Bills need to do to win: Buffalo need to play their strength(s) and go all guns blazing on offense to try and rattle Detroit. Goff and the Lions are used to playing with a healthy lead and the reduction of stress that affords. Allen’s white-hot scoring potential could put the Lions in an alien position that induces uncharacteristic, costly errors.
A hot start would also mean Buffalo’s so-so run defence might not be tested as thoroughly. The Bills allow almost five yards/carry on average and are tied for seventh-most 20-plus yard runs allowed with 11. Gibbs (holder of the third-most 20-plus yard runs with nine) and Montgomery are going to get touches though having a handful fewer chances at making back-breaking explosive plays would be a great relief.
What Lions need to do to win: Detroit’s offensive line has to maintain its immense standard to dominate the Bills and the scoreboard. If they do then running lanes will be wide open for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery while a more decisive outcome will likely follow: the gift of time for Goff to go to work in the pocket. Detroit’s franchise quarterback is enjoying the best and most accurate season of his career thanks to the improved work of the big men up front.
His 72.4% completion rate is a major factor in how Detroit have kicked on from being a good team to a great one and as such they have already equalled last year’s regular season win total. A statement win for Goff over his opposite number with the higher pedigree could be a subtle yet powerful boost to the Lions’ confidence down the stretch.
Rising in playoff race: Los Angeles Rams
How to flex your playoff credentials late in a season? Stagger from the saloon victorious after a shootout with the MVP-elect Allen then chalk up a hard-fought win over a division rival, the San Francisco 49ers. Sean McVay’s offence were mostly out of sync on Thursday night but the underrated defence shut Brock Purdy down while Puka Nacua’s mind meld with Matthew Stafford remained strong. The second-year pass catcher is on pace to crack 1,000 yards despite missing five games with a serious knee injury.
The 8-6 Rams can now put their feet up as they sit and hope both the NFC West-leading Seahawks and wildcard-holding Commanders join them from 8-5. Seattle are the most likely candidate as they face the playoff-bound Green Bay Packers. A loss would move Los Angeles narrowly ahead on conference record.
Falling in playoff race: Los Angeles Chargers
The way the playoff picture is forming this season is arguably hurting the Chargers. They are almost certain to make the postseason owing in some part to the lack of competition in the AFC. This ho-hum run, along with key injuries, could be blunting (while definitely not sharpening) their offensive teeth as their strong start has allowed December defeats to matter little. The 8-5 record is just a little too comfortable over the wildcard pretenders on 6-7.
The Chargers’ running game is their greatest flaw. Without the injured JK Dobbins, the Bolts get nowhere fast at an average EPA/play of -0.22 which leaves quarterback Justin Herbert expected to do it all. On Sunday he failed without favoured target Ladd McConkey in a narrow defeat to the beatable Chiefs. Head coach Jim Harbaugh needs the rookie receiver to be fit and ready to revive production against Tampa Bay, as Dobbins returns in week 17 at the earliest, as the hungry Buccaneers look to cement their place at the top of the NFC South. Another spirit-sapping loss for the Chargers would further mark them out as a soft touch in the first round of the postseason.
Race for No 1 draft pick
The pair one shot better than the chasing pack on the 15th tee are the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants at 2-11. Both are enduring ferocious cold snaps with severely undermanned rosters enduring respective nine- and eight-game losing streaks. Barring a miraculous turnaround in fortunes, Big Blue will remain in pole position for the No 1 overall pick in 2025 as they host Baltimore on Sunday. The 8-5 Ravens would be a safe bet any week of the season considering their talent advantage but Lamar Jackson and company’s chances are only boosted further by heading north after a refreshing bye week and needing to win to stay in the hunt for the AFC North title.
Meanwhile, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce is apparently hoping his quarterback sees red when the Falcons visit. No, Gardner Minshew has no score to settle with Atlanta. One-time Falcons QB1 Desmond Ridder however has been given the keys to the Las Vegas offense in a desperate attempt to find some life in the desert. This latest and possibly greatest test of the term “revenge game” could see Ridder fired up to overcome his replacement, Kirk Cousins – zero touchdowns and eight interceptions thrown in four successive defeats – though the former’s ring rust and limited throwing ability should still keep the heavily favored playoff-chasing Falcons on course to end the veteran’s horrific run.
