I’ve been high on North Carolina since the preseason. So far, it hasn’t worked out so well.
The Tar Heels have played 10 games and lost four of them, which is not what I expected when I ranked them fourth in the CBS Sports Preseason Top 25 And 1. Even I can admit, at this point, it’s pretty clear that fourth in the preseason was too high. Replacing Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram has proven to be more difficult than I anticipated. That said, it’s not like North Carolina has lost to a bunch of, or any, bad teams. All four of UNC’s losses qualify as Quadrant 1 losses to teams ranked in the top 14 at KPI, in the top 17 of the Top 25 And 1 and at KenPom.com, in the top 19 at BartTorvik.com, in the top 20 of the AP poll and at EvanMiya.com, and in the top 21 of the NET. And, to the positive, the Tar Heels have a Q1 win over a Dayton team that’s 8-2 with victories over Marquette and UConn.
So if you’re among the folks who have been asking why I’m still ranking a 6-4 North Carolina team, that’s why. Because all four of UNC’s losses are to schools I have ahead of the Tar Heels in the Top 25 And 1, and because North Carolina also has a Q1 victory over a team (Dayton) I also have ranked.
Still, I get the skeptics.
Which is why it’s important for the Tar Heels to perform Tuesday night when they play Florida in the Jumpman Invitational, because, if they don’t they’ll drop to 1-5 in the first two quadrants heading into Saturday’s game with UCLA in the CBS Sports Classic. Yeah, that would still be 1-5 in the first two quadrants with all five losses coming in Q1 and to teams ranked ahead of them in the Top 25 And 1. But, at some point, doing little more than beating bad teams while losing to most of the good ones you play only grows the number of non-believers questioning your ability.
Florida is No. 8 in Tuesday morning’s updated Top 25 And 1. North Carolina is No. 18. They’ll tip Tuesday night in Charlotte at 6 ET.
