The Atlanta Falcons made the move that was inevitable after results of their recent five-game stretch have them fighting for their postseason lives. After starting 6-3 with the NFC South in control, the Falcons have executed a 1-4 stretch capped off by a victory Monday night against the Las Vegas Raiders that felt more like a loss.
Their big-time offseason acquisition of quarterback Kirk Cousins started off in a very productive manner for the team. But his play devolved and he became the Falcons’ biggest obstacle toward success in recent games. Just 14 games into a contract that has $100 million guaranteed through the first two seasons, the Cousins experiment in Atlanta is over and the team will be moving forward with rookie QB Michael Penix Jr., the eighth pick in this year’s NFL Draft.
Head coach Raheem Morris announced the move Monday night, saying in a statement, “we have made the decision Michael Penix will be the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback moving forward.”
Atlanta has had almost two completely separate seasons on the offensive side of the football. Over the Falcons’ 6-3 start, they looked to have a unit capable of at least getting to the playoffs. According to TruMedia, over the first nine weeks of the season, the Falcons ranked seventh in expected points added (36.47), 10th in success rate (44.7%) and 10th in points per drive (2.33). They were doing what was expected of them coming into the season — add a veteran quarterback to an offense with young, talented skill players and watch the floor rise.
Since then, Cousins turned into a liability and the Falcons plummeted. From Week 10, the Falcons rank 24th in expected points added (-27.02), 13th in success rate (43.2%) and 31st in points per drive (1.37). They went from a top-10 offense to one of the worst offenses in the league overnight.
Cousins himself was posting strong numbers at the start of the season, ranking seventh (among 37 qualifying quarterbacks) in expected points added per dropback (0.15) during those nine weeks when things looked good. Since then, Cousins’ expected points added per dropback (-0.14) has plummeted to 30th (among 32 qualifying quarterbacks) and he ranks dead last in interception percentage (5.7%). Even with the litany of turnovers and costly plays, the Cousins and the Falcons never really dropped below league average in terms of success rate.
The Falcons’ steadiness in terms of offensive success rate throughout the losing streak actually creates the framework for beginning to explain what happened to them. They still move the ball fairly well, but have become too constricted as an offense as the season has gone along. No team runs less play-action than the Falcons and Cousins has scrambled only three times this season — understandable for a 36-year-old coming off an Achilles injury. However, his physical limitations have become a colossal hindrance to this offense. With no play-action, the Falcons don’t have any changeups to throw at defenses and can’t take advantage of having one of the best rushing attacks in the league. They’re just dropping back and firing with no real constraints on defenses, which has become increasingly easier to cover.
That’s an approach that can work when the quarterback is actually seeing the field well and throwing with accuracy. Cousins is doing anything but that right now, making costly mistakes routinely for Atlanta. Cousins leads the league in interceptions over the past five games with nine and has fumbled the ball five times in that stretch. It doesn’t matter how well the Falcons can move the ball when those drives are abruptly ending in catastrophe. Success rate counts how well they move the ball, expected points measures what’s happening on those plays — hence Atlanta’s incredibly low marks in terms of actually being able to put the ball in the end zone. With how constricted the Falcons’ offense has become, it’s not surprising that they’re also one of the worst red zone teams, despite having players like Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Drake London.
Think about how bad that win over the Raiders had to feel in order to make this move. Atlanta didn’t even run a play in the red zone against a team that was 2-11 entering the game. Cousins mustered just 93 net passing yards and had another brutal interception that shouldn’t have been thrown in a million years.
This was not the scenario the Falcons expected when they signed Cousins. The plan was to start him for a couple years while Penix sat on the bench behind him. Cousins’ recent stretch of play has made his position in the starting lineup untenable and, like most teams who draft a rookie quarterback in the first round, the rookie will play.
Penix will take over a team that is still alive for the playoffs despite its recent blunders. He’ll likely need to go 3-0 to make that playoff berth a reality.
