The race to the World Test Championships final is heating up.
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With just eight tests to go, the race is well and truly alive with four teams still in contention.
No one has locked themselves in for the final just yet, with plenty to play out over the remaining weeks.
AUSTRALIA
Win both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests and the Aussies are locked in.
If they don’t, things are a little more complex.
If they win one and draw one against India, they’ll finish ahead of India, even if they lose 2-0 to Sri Lanka. If they lose to Sri Lanka 2-0 though, the Sri Lankans will overtake them. Therefore, they’d need at least a draw in one of those two Tests to ensure they finish ahead of Sri Lanka.
If they can only muster a draw in these final two Tests against India, they’ll need to secure a whitewash against Sri Lanka, or hope South Africa lose at least 1-0 to Pakistan.
AUS v India – 3rd Test, Day 5 Highlights | 08:12
INDIA
A draw in Brisbane means India must win the final two matches against Australia this summer to be sure of qualification.
They currently have a win percentage of 55.89, but a further two victories will take that number to 60.53. Should India secure one win and one draw, they’ll finish on 57.02 which would mean the Aussies could overtake them post the upcoming Sri Lanka series.
There are a number of other ways India can qualify.
– India win the series against Australia 2-1, Australia beat Sri Lanka by no more than 1-0 or South African lose at least 1-0 to Pakistan
– If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends up 2-2, Australia will need to lose to Sri Lanka by at least 1-0 or South Africa lose to Pakistan 2-0
– If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends up 1-1, South Africa will need to lose both Tests or Australia lose 1-0 to Sri Lanka or draw 0-0. This would see Australia and India tied, but India would win by tiebreaker (3-2 series wins this WTC cycle)
Ashwin calls time on Indian career | 05:52
SOUTH AFRICA
The South Africans need to win just one of their two Tests against Pakistan to ensure they qualify for the WTC final. If they lose the series 1-0, both Australia and India could leapfrog them if India secure a win and draw in Australia and Australia secure a win and draw in Sri Lanka.
If South Africa lose both Tests to Pakistan, then you’d have to think at least one of India or Australia go past them. But if India only muster four points in the remaining matches of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and Sri Lanka don’t defeat Australia 2-0, then Australia and South Africa could both qualify.
But if India win and draw the final two fixtures of Border-Gavaskar Trophy and Sri Lanka secure a 1-0 series victory over the Aussies, India and South Africa will contest the final.
Aussie batting order CRUMBLES on Day 5 | 01:25
SRI LANKA
Sri Lanka can achieve a percentage of 53.85 if they defeat the Aussies 2-0 early next year. To top the standings, they’ll need Australia to get no more than a win and a draw in the remaining matches against India, which would mean India only gets the draw. South Africa would need to lose 2-0 to Pakistan. Sri Lanka can finish in second place if only one of the above teams reach that mark.
‘They’ve got to get him in’ | 01:47
PAKISTAN
They’d need a miracle to reach the WTC final from here.
Pakistan would need to sweep both South Africa away and the West Indies at home and hope the South Africans drop a point due to over rates.
There’s a bunch of other results that would need to fall their way to feature and so you can just about put a line through them this time around.
There’s plenty to play out with just eight tests remaining before we have the decider locked in place.
Can the Aussies go back-to-back, will it be third time lucky for India or can another side claim their place in history?
