Before you come after me, this article is meant to be informative. The sky is not falling on Purdue men’s basketball, nor do I think drastic changes need to be made. This is merely a look at where we are this season and my personal feelings. That out of the way, let’s get into it.
Purdue men’s basketball currently sits at 8-3 on the year. They are currently ranked 16th in the AP Top 25. They have two ranked wins on the season with victories over #2 Alabama, and #23 Ole Miss. Two of their losses have come against ranked opponents, #15 Marquette and #17 Texas A&M. The third loss was on the road against conference opponent Penn State. What I’m trying to say is that it’s not like Purdue is losing to Nobody U like a team in Wisconsin with a rather unlikeable coach. There are no bad losses so far from this Purdue team. They do have three of them though and it’s only December 18th as I write this. Purdue’s third loss actually came on December 14th. By comparison, last season’s Purdue team, yes I know it’s a completely unfair comparison, lost their third game on February 18th. Two full months from today. That’s a drastic difference.
Now again, more caveating, last season’s team made it to the NCAA Championship game, they won the Big Ten, they had a back-to-back consensus National Player of the Year in Zach Edey. We all knew this season was going to be different. It was going to be a bit of a rebuild, but we also knew that the talent was there. What we didn’t count on as an injury to a key player in the second game of the season. The center position was always going to be a problem for this team. The defense especially would need to completely reinvent itself with Zach Edey no longer patrolling the lane. Daniel Jacobsen, the true freshman starter, was the best option at the 5 going into this season. He was the best shot blocker and rim protector on the team. When he broke his leg in the second game of the season it changed Matt Painter’s entire plan.
Now, Painter and his staff are trying to play a bit of a small ball lineup after figuring out that Will Berg simply wasn’t the answer at center. Trey Kaufman-Renn is acquitting himself quite well in what has been a breakout season. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer continue to be a dominant duo. Something about the team feels off though and it’s hard to put your finger on just one there. There’s the turnover problem. Earlier in the year Purdue committed 24 turnovers which was tied for the most in a single game under Matt Painter. That’s astounding when you think about the team that Painter cobbled together in those first couple seasons? Remember when David Teague and Carl Landry were hurt? Remember the next year with Johnathan Uchendu and Dan Vandervieren? Those guys were not known as having great hands or really great basketball skills and yet this season’s Purdue team is now right up there with that team. Related, but separate, is the consistent struggle with the press and all forms of pressure. You’d like to think that a guy like Braden Smith wouldn’t leave his feet quite as often given the pressure he’s seen over his first two years in college. And yet… You’d also hope that either CJ Cox or Gicarri Harris would have been ready as a secondary ball handler from day one. It was probably too much to ask for them to step into the Lance Jones role, but someone needs to be a Lance Jones type player and right now no one has stepped up. The inability to stay in front of long and/or quick guards has been a challenge as well.
So yeah, this team has flaws and I worry about them. I think about them a lot. A whole lot (as Tom Crean would say). But does that mean I think this team can’t do great things? Absolutely not. I think we as Purdue fans have this mindset that in order to reach the Final Four you’ve got to have a once in a generational team. That’s simply not the case. Sometimes you’ve just gotta be hot at the right time. Sometimes you stumble into a broken bracket. Sometimes you just get the right matchup. Purdue fans have seen great Purdue teams struggle when it really mattered and so they built up this idea that only the greatest teams make the Final Four. I mean look at George Mason, VCU, Loyola Chicago. I don’t think those teams had generational talent. I think they had good draws (including facing a flawed Purdue team), good coaching, and some good luck. Purdue has good coaching, great coaching even, and will certainly play themselves into a good draw. The Big Ten season offers many opportunities for signature wins and I believe that Purdue will have plenty come Selection Sunday and all that point it’s all a roll of the dice.
I’m not guaranteeing Purdue will make the Final Four, far from it actually, but what I am saying is that there’s reason to worry, but not reason to panic. There’s reason to be skeptical, but also reason for optimism. Purdue has seen guys like TKR, Myles Colvin, and Camden Heide continue to step up this season. With them, and perhaps improvements from guys like Harris and Cox, this team will look much different in March than they do right now. Come Selection Sunday, who knows what will happen. I know I’ll be watching each and every step along the way and I know you will too. We are all in this season together as Purdue looks to continue to build one of the best programs in the country.
