Are there too many 3-pointers in today’s NBA?
The average NBA game sees 75.2 3-pointers attempted this season, up from 70.2 a game a season ago, which was an all-time high. Ten years ago, the average game saw 44.8 3s a game. The NBA champion Boston Celtics led the league in 3-pointers attempted a season ago and Joe Mazzulla has his team doubling down on that strategy averaging 51.3 3-point attempts a game. This turns off a very vocal segment of fans who want to tie the volume of 3-pointers into the complex stew that is the decline in NBA television ratings (which is more about a transition for how the nation consumes sports and media in general than just NBA 3s launched).
Count LeBron James in the concerned group. Asked about the changes to the All-Star Game format, LeBron said at the end of his comments there needs to be a conversation in general about the state of the game.
LeBron James, when asked about changes to the NBA All-Star Game format, touched on more issues with the league: “Our game, there’s a lot of f—ing 3s being shot. So it’s a bigger conversation than just the All-Star Game” pic.twitter.com/weKJVSyXfB
— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) December 19, 2024
“Our game, there’s a lot of f****** 3s being shot. So it’s a bigger conversation than just the All-Star Game.”
While LeBron’s comments drew an “amen” from certain corners, one wasn’t his coach, J.J. Redick, who, in his pregame comments, put on his old podcaster hat again and gave a much more thoughtful, more nuanced take on the situation.
“I don’t think the league is as homogenized as a lot of people make it out to be,” Redick said, via Jawn Gonzalez. “There are certain rosters and certain players that, because of their skill set, it makes sense to shoot a lot of 3s. What I think gets lost a little bit in the amount of 3-point attempts is what has been taken away, which is a steady decline in long 2s. What, I checked this last year, so don’t quote me on this, but what has increased along with 3-point volume is points in the paint. So the 3 has allowed more space for people to actually score at the rim and score in the paint. So that’s the strategy.”
That is true. The Shaq/Kobe Lakers were the kings of scoring points in the paint, as was that era, right? Not so fast. In the 2000-01 season, the median in the NBA was teams scoring 39.4% of their points in the paint (the Lakers got 44.1% of their points there that season). This season, the median is a team scoring 43% of their points in the paint, and the Lakers — who want to trade for a center to help their presence inside — score 45% of their buckets from the paint. Teams are scoring more buckets in the paint.
Echoing that same theme, a common complaint about the NBA game today is the lack of defense, but since the middle of last season, when the NBA adjusted how games were called to allow more physicality on the floor, defense is up, and scoring is down. As NBA writer Jared Dubin has noted in multiple places, including the Real GM Radio podcast, scoring is down about two points per 100 possessions this season due to defenses being allowed to be more physical, particularly on those drives to the paint. Defenses are always a step behind offenses (in nearly every sport) and adjust, but they do.
All of which is to say, it’s not so simple as “there are too many 3s being launched,” even if LeBron is the one saying it.
