North Carolina is in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, and their season may hinge on this UCLA matchup.
With the Tar Heels’ frustrating pattern of digging themselves into huge deficits, paired with their inability to close out big games, they’re running out of opportunities to pick up Quad 1 wins.
Tomorrow, the Tar Heels tip-off versus No. 18 UCLA on basketball’s biggest stage — Madison Square Garden. UCLA is currently on a nine-game winning streak, sitting at 10-1 on the season. For the Tar Heels, this is just about as close as it gets to a must-win game in December. Sure, it’s still very early in the season, but UNC can’t head into January ACC play with Dayton as their only Quad 1 win.
The ACC as a whole has been a very weak Power 5 conference this season. According to the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Net Rankings, there are only seven ACC teams in the top 75: Duke (at No. 3), Pitt (at No. 11), Clemson (at No. 27), SMU (at No. 44), UNC (at No. 46), Louisville (at No. 62) and Florida State (at No. 71).
Clearly, in a conference with very few powerhouse teams, opportunities for quality wins run thin for UNC. North Carolina needs to beef up their resume by beating the Bruins — which would also be UNC’s first win versus a ranked opponent this season.
2024-2025 Season
North Carolina Tar Heels
Overall record: 6-5
Conference Record: 1-0
Home Record: 4-1
Away Record: 1-1
Neutral Site Record: 1-3
UCLA Bruins
Overall record: 10-1
Conference Record: 0-0
Home Record: 8-0
Away Record: 1-0
Neutral Site Record: 1-1
Key Players
North Carolina
RJ Davis (Gr. Guard) – 18.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists
Seth Trimble (Jr. Guard) – 15.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists
Elliot Cadeau (So. Guard) – 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.7 assists
UCLA
Tyler Bilodeau (Jr. Forward) – 14.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists
Eric Dailey Jr. (So. Guard/Forward) – 11.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists
Dylan Andrews (Jr. Guard) – 9.7 points, 1.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists
Keys to Victory for North Carolina
Rebound!
Surprisingly, the Tar Heels’ rebounding margin hasn’t been as lopsided as it’s felt. North Carolina actually outrebounded Kansas and Alabama earlier this season. But the team’s presence and effort on the glass just isn’t up to the Carolina standard. After all, the Tar Heels expect utter domination on the boards every single season — it’s a staple for UNC hoops. And unfortunately, this team has been anything but dominant on the glass.
North Carolina consistently gets outhustled and gives up untimely offensive rebounds — like versus Florida. The Tar Heels looked in control with four minutes to go versus the Gators. However, missed free throws and Florida converting offensive boards into second-chance points were the daggers down the stretch. Florida outrebounded UNC by 10, and in the Maui Invitational, Michigan State outrebounded UNC by eight.
UCLA isn’t a very strong rebounding team, averaging just 35 rebounds per game to UNC’s 39. So, North Carolina needs to set the tone versus UCLA, bringing toughness and determination on the boards.
3-Point Shooting
North Carolina’s main advantage this game — as it is every game — is their guards.
As a guard-dominant team that wants to get out and run and score in bunches, the Tar Heels have to knock down threes. In three of their last four games, the Tar Heels shot 5-28 from deep versus Florida and Alabama and 5-24 versus Georgia Tech. That’s just not good enough — plain and simple.
For an undersized team that struggles tremendously on defense, UNC must hit shots. North Carolina needs to be a dangerous 3-point shooting team to offset some of their weaknesses. If they can’t knock down threes at an efficient clip, it could be a long season.
Something to Watch for
Ian Jackson has emerged as a budding star for UNC. The high-pedigree, five-star freshman is playing with heart and moxie. He’s one of the few bright spots in this young season so far. The game versus Florida proved that Jackson has potential to be one of Carolina’s closers in clutch time.
“Captain Jack” is averaging an impressive 13.6 points in his last five games. Freshmen typically struggle with efficiency, but not Jackson. Along with Trimble, he’s been UNC’s most efficient player shooting the ball. Jackson is hitting at 47% from the field, 42.4% from three and 84.2% from the stripe.
It’s time to fully unleash Jackson and have him be a bigger part of UNC’s offensive identity. Be on the lookout for another big game from Jackson. North Carolina is at its best when he’s hot and logging 25 minutes or more.
When the lights are shining brightest in basketball’s most famous arena, and when the Tar Heels’ backs are up against the wall, can they get the job done versus UCLA?
Projected Starters
No. 3 Elliot Cadeau (So. 6’1)
No. 4 RJ Davis (Gr. 6’0)
No. 7 Seth Trimble (Jr. 6’3)
No. 9 Drake Powell (Fr. 6’6)
No. 22 Ven-Allen Lubin (Jr. 6’8)
