Purdue Basketball: Auburn Preview

Auburn University: 9-1 – AP #2 – KenPom #1

Basic Information

Location: Auburn, Alabama

Type of School: Public Land Grant Research University

Mascot: Aubie the Tiger

Head Coach – Bruce Pearl

Seasons at Auburn: 11

Auburn Record: 223-120

Other Head Coaching Jobs:

University of Milwaukee: 86-38

University of Tennessee: 145-61

Overall Record: 454-219

Accomplishments

Regular Season Conference Championships: 5

Milwaukee – ‘04/’05, ‘05/’06

Tennessee – ‘07/’08

Auburn – ‘17/18 – ‘21-’22

Conference Tournament Championships:

NCAA Appearances: 13 (17-13)

Final 4 Appearances: 0

Kenpom Style of Play

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Adj. Efficiency: 130.6 (1)

Avg. Poss. Length: 16.9 (121)

Defense

Adj. Efficiency: 95.3 (14)

Avg. Poss. Length: 18 (288)

Tempo

Adj. Tempo: 68.2 (187)

Kenpom 4 Factors

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Effective FG%: 59.4 (6)

3 Point %: 38 (42)

2 Point %: 61.2 (7)

Turnover %: 12.9 (5)

Off. Reb. %: 35.4 (40)

FTA/FGA: 29.6 (273)

Defense

Effective FG%: 43.9 (15)

3 Point %: 31.2 (98)

2 Point %: 42.6 (11)

Turnover %: 16.4 (251)

Off. Reb. %: 26.3 (59)

FTA/FGA: 32.9 (169)

Personnel

Auburn on Offense

This is tough. I was planning on writing multiple paragraphs on Auburn star forward Johni Broome, but his availability remains up in the air as of Friday afternoon after he suffered a shoulder injury early against Georgia State. At this point, I’m going to assume that Pearl rests Broome against Purdue. It was announced earlier this week that the frontrunner for National Player of the Year won’t need surgery on his injured shoulder, and to me, that means it needs rest and rehabilitation. After Purdue, Auburn has a home game against Monmouth on December 30th and then plays Missouri on January 4th. Sitting Broome until the SEC season opener makes the most sense for the Tigers, in my humble opinion. Granted, I have no inside information, but Auburn is a legit National Championship contender, and they need Broome for the remainder of the season way more than they need him against Purdue. I see the “risk/reward” equation as too heavily weighted to the risk side for the Tigers.

That leaves a 20-point, 13-rebound, 4-assist hole in the Tigers’ offense when they face the Boilermakers. Since Broome only logged two minutes against Georgia State before going down on what looked like a fairly routine fight for a rebound, Purdue got a look at how Bruce Pearl might attempt to fill the void left by Broome.

Don’t expect Auburn’s offense to change much without their leading scorer, at least in terms of design. Pearl’s offense shifts between his traditional 4-out look and a more open 5-out look. Against Georgia Southern, reserve senior forward Chaney Johnson stepped into Broome’s role and produced a career-high 26 points, including a Zach Edey-like 12-13 performance inside the arc. Johnson isn’t a threat from outside the arc like Broome (he’s shooting 17% on the year compared to Broome’s 30%), but he has the ability to both play with his back to the basket in the post and act as a driver on the perimeter.

Pearl used Johnson the same way he uses Broome against Georgia State. When the Panthers went with a bigger, slower defender, they isolated Johnson on the backside of the play and let him attack the basket with an open lane. When the Panthers put a smaller, quicker defender on Johnson, they put him in the paint and let him play more like a traditional big. It will be interesting to see if Johnson can do the same thing against Purdue. The one major difference between Broome and Johnson is size. Broome is listed at 6’10”, 240, and Johnson is listed at 6’7”, 225. This works out well for Purdue in terms of matchup because 6’7”, 225 is right in Camden Heide’s wheelhouse. Cam’s strength on the box and quickness as a perimeter defender should be an asset for the Boilermakers. Let’s just say I like Cam vs. Johnson significantly more than I like TKR trying to stop Broome.

This is a significantly smaller Auburn team without Broome. The idea of Purdue dealing with the 6’10” Broome and his frontcourt partner, the 6’11” Dylan Cardwell, gave me indigestion. Auburn is 40th in the country when it comes to offensive rebounding, and Purdue is 196th in defensive rebounding. Cardwell is a solid post player, but Broome is 5th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage (32) and 38th in offensive rebounding percentage (15). Cardwell is 214th in offensive rebounding and is outside KenPom’s national ranking in defensive rebounding. Obviously, there will be more boards for Cardwell to grab with Broome out, but TKR has a much better shot of keeping him off the glass than Broome. Cardwell is still an efficient post finisher from the “dunker” spot in the 4-out, but he’s not a guy that’s going to put up huge numbers (cue a 40-point game).

A player that might put up huge numbers is Chad Baker-Mazara. He’s the type of long, athletic wing that Purdue hasn’t had much of an answer for this season. He’s solid both inside the arc, where he’s shooting 67%, and outside, where he’s shooting 39%. Mazara isn’t a wing that stands in the corner and only shoots threes. He’ll put the ball on the deck, especially when isolated on the weak side of the court. He finds some open threes on drive-and-kicks, but the majority come off perimeter action from Auburn. Mazara comes off screens looking to pull the trigger, and it’s hard to stop the lanky 6’7” sharpshooter when he rises and fires. Purdue has to be smart in how they guard him, however, because he’ll show the ball, take two dribbles, and dunk it if a defender doesn’t close out under control, either off a screen or off a catch in rotation.

The major problem teams have stopping Auburn is, unfortunately, a major problem Purdue has a tough time stopping. They space the floor, make you guard your own man, and punish you in rotation. Texas A&M shot 40% from three against the Boilermakers but are shooting just 32% on the season. Auburn is shooting 38% from deep on the season. Out of the following players, three of these guys are on the court at all times: Tahaad Pettiford (44%), Chad Baker-Mazara (39%), Denver Jones (44%), and Miles Kelly (43%). Bruce Pearl wants to spread teams out with lethal shooters and then make the opposition decide if they want to stick with shooters and leave Broome in single coverage or help on Broome and leave a 40% shooter open on the perimeter.

Without Broome? I think it’s in Purdue’s best interest to see if Cardwell and Johnson can beat them two points at a time on the inside. A contested two is better than an open three when you’re playing a team with shooters like the Tigers, but I’m not sure Matt Painter’s team can help themselves when it comes to over-helping.

Auburn on Defense

This isn’t the normal Bruce Pearl run and jump pressing team. That’s actually good for Purdue. The Tigers have a press, and I expect them to deploy it against Purdue, because any coach that doesn’t press Purdue should be fired, but it’s not the heart of their defense this season. Auburn’s 16.4% turnover percentage is 251st in the country, but they’re 2nd in the country in assists / field goals made. Teams are registering an assist on 33% of their baskets against Auburn. To put that in perspective, teams are registering an assist on 56% of their baskets against Purdue.

The difference is simple. Auburn doesn’t leave guys open. They switch pick and rolls, contain their guys off the bounce, and don’t spend all game scrambling around trying to close out shooters. Auburn’s defense constantly makes you shoot over a defender. It’s rare to find an “open” look on the inside, they’re only allowing teams to shooting 43% from 2 on the season (7), compared to Purdue’s 51% (188).

What that means is the Boilermakers are going to have to win some individual matchups. In their only loss of the season, Duke only had 11 assts, but freshman Cooper Flagg was able to dominate the game with his ability to both drive the ball and finish in the post. He put up 22 points despite going 0-4 from 3. Mason Gillis, on the other hand, is reliant on getting open shots from the perimeter. He played 5 minutes and didn’t score. Players that stand around against Auburn are pretty much erased because Bruce Pearl will let a defender stand around with them.

I don’t see the pick and roll being an effective way to attack Auburn. They’ll switch everything and make Smith finish over their center. Braden had 15 points against A&M in the loss, but they all came on 5-11 shooting from deep. He was 0-3 from inside the arch, and the majority of his 6 turnovers came from trying to force the ball into the paint and hoping something open up late. A&M made Smith a scorer and while 15 points and 6 assists is good, it’s not good enough for this Purdue team, especially when you factor in the 6 turnovers. I’d really like to see Braden with the ball in his hands less in this game, but without a second ball handler, that’s tough.

Ideally, Trey Kaufmann-Renn steps up and provides Purdue with a secondary playmaker, but the big man can’t stop turning it over. The Boilermakers aren’t going to win many games this season with Trey going for 11 points, 2 assists, and 5 turnovers like he did against A&M. I really, really want TKR to be more of a threat to drive from the perimeter, similar to how Auburn uses Broome and Johnson, but that can’t happen if he doesn’t get the turnovers under control.

Prediction

KenPom

Auburn – 83

Purdue – 72

Drew

Auburn – 87

Purdue – 79

I’m significantly less confident about my prediction if Broome doesn’t play. With Broome, I don’t see a way forward against Auburn. They play a style of ball that Purdue has struggled with all seasons, and they play it better than everyone else with Broome on the court. The Boilermakers should be able to hold their own on the glass, and that’s a big swing in favor of the Boilermakers. Auburn’s ability to dominate the offense glass and give their shooters looks against a broken defense has played a major role in their success the season. The guy responsible for that success probably won’t play.

I’m still picking Auburn in this one, because they’re a better version of Texas A&M and Purdue looked lost against the Aggies at times, but I’m 25% more optimistic now than I was before the Broome injury.