What do the No. 6 Tigers (14-0) need to find?
Mulkey seems to think LSU can play better defense and commit fewer turnovers. The Tigers recently gave away at least 20 possessions three times over a five-game stretch and allowed a mid-major Illinois-Chicago team to hit 11 3-pointers — over double its season average.
But LSU has still won its first 14 games by an average margin of 34.1 points, one of the three largest discrepancies in the country. Over that stretch, the Tigers have notched commanding wins over No. 22 North Carolina State and Seton Hall, yet they’ve also stolen victories from Washington and Stanford.
Exactly how dangerous is this LSU team, Mulkey’s fourth? We likely won’t have a clear answer until after it faces its first Southeastern Conference opponents of the season.
Let’s look at some of the key storylines from the start of the season anyway before the Tigers face Albany at 1 p.m. Sunday (SEC Network+) to wrap up their nonconference slate.
An unsettled guard rotation
On Nov. 27, Mulkey said she was still “not set” on a lead point guard and that as many as four players — presumably Shayeann Day-Wilson, Last-Tear Poa, Mjracle Sheppard and Kailyn Gilbert — were vying for the starting job.
Did Mulkey find an answer over the last three weeks of games? Here’s what she told LSU’s radio broadcast last Thursday after the Tigers beat UIC.
“I’ve got to find a point guard,” Mulkey said. “I’ve got to find somebody I trust, somebody the team trusts, somebody that runs the show out there. I don’t care if they score. Defend, know everybody’s job out there and run the show like you’re the coach on the floor.
“I shouldn’t have to be doing that, but that’s what I’m doing right now.”
Injuries are a part of the problem. Day-Wilson hurt her ankle late in LSU’s win over Stanford, then sat each of the next four games, and Sheppard missed the first six contests of the season after she suffered a stress reaction in her foot. Those absences have given Mulkey and her staff just four games with their full backcourt healthy and active.
But it’s been a while now since LSU has had consistent point guard play. Hailey Van Lith struggled for a sizable chunk of last season, and Mulkey isn’t satisfied with what she’s seen from her ballhandlers through the first 14 games of this year.
The good news for the Tigers is that the inconsistency hasn’t affected their offense.
They rank third nationally in scoring (93.3 points per game) and top 10 in shooting efficiency (49%). LSU’s 1.16 assist-to-turnover ratio — the 8th-best mark in the SEC — is identical to the one it posted during last season’s nonconference slate.
Room to improve on defense
LSU can, however, play better defense. A frustrated Mulkey said as such after UIC hit 40% of its shots and more than 10 3-pointers Thursday, becoming just the third mid-major team since 2021 to hit both of those marks in a regular-season game against the Tigers.
Through 14 games, LSU is allowing its opponents to score 74.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Her Hoop Stats, the 18th-best rate among Division I teams. The strength of schedule has varied, but each of Mulkey’s first three Tiger teams defended their nonconference opponents at a better rate. Her first one allowed 73.4 points per 100 possessions, and her next two conceded 67.4 and 72.8, respectively.
How can LSU improve? It can start by creating more turnovers.
Last year, the Tigers forced their nonconference opponents into 24.4 giveaways per game, which was one of the five best rates in the country and the top rate in the SEC.
This season, LSU is turning its opponents over 19.2 times per night. Over 70 DI teams, including six SEC squads, are forcing turnovers at a higher rate.
Stars taking leaps
Flau’jae Johnson’s scoring average (20.9 ppg) is up six points, Aneesah Morrow is on pace to post a career-high rebounding average (14.0), and Mikaylah Williams has already hit at least five 3-pointers twice — the same number of times she hit that threshold all last season.
LSU certainly has enough star power to reach the Final Four. According to Stathead, it’s the only DI team that has three players who are each scoring at least 15 ppg and shooting at least 45% from the field.
The challenge for Mulkey and her staff — as it has been since last season ended — will be finding the right mix of role players to complement Johnson, Morrow and Williams.
A deeper SEC
Excluding clashes with rival South Carolina, LSU has played only six regular-season games against ranked SEC opponents since Mulkey took over the program.
By the end of this season, that number could more than double.
Eight SEC teams were ranked in the last edition of The Associated Press poll before Christmas, which means that the Tigers have eight games left on their schedule against opponents that are currently ranked.
LSU wants to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. But because the SEC is so deep, winning enough games to earn that right will be a challenge — more so than it was in each of Mulkey’s first three seasons in charge.
The good news for the Tigers is that they can put victories over each of the first three power-conference opponents they faced on their resume. They have a Quad-1 win over NC State and a Quad-2 victory over Stanford.
