Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 9-7 (.563); season 163-77 (.679). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-10 (.375); season 126-112-2 (.529). Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.
CHIEFS (14-1) AT STEELERS (10-5)
Today, 10 a.m. TV: Netflix
Line: Chiefs by 2½. O/U: 42½.
Regardless of the stakes, the Chiefs don’t want to take their foot off the gas. They want to get some rhythm going with Hollywood Brown. Then again, Steelers are good in games on a big stage.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Steelers 18
RAVENS (10-5) AT TEXANS (9-6)
Today, 1:30 p.m. TV: Netflix
Line: Ravens by 4½. O/U: 46½.
The Texans can’t fill out their receiving corps, and the Tank Dell injury is really going to hurt them. They probably won’t run it well enough, and that heaps the pressure on C.J. Stroud.
Pick: Ravens 28, Texans 21
SEAHAWKS (8-7) AT BEARS (4-11)
Thursday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Prime Video
Line: Seahawks by 3½. O/U: 43½.
The Seahawks need this to keep pace with the Rams. The Bears have lost nine in a row. Chicago tends to dig a big hole before its offense gets rolling. Should pick up yards on the ground vs. Seattle.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Bears 23
CHARGERS (9-6) AT PATRIOTS (3-12)
Saturday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), NFL Network
Line: Chargers by 5½. O/U: 43½.
The Patriots will have a good game plan, and Drake Maye will throw it well, but he’ll probably wind up with an interception or two. The Chargers are getting better off the edge.
Pick: Chargers 24, Patriots 20
BRONCOS (9-6) AT BENGALS (7-8)
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: NFL Network
Line: Bengals by 3. O/U: 49½.
Joe Burrow is in the MVP conversation even though his team has a losing record. The Bengals are still in it until the math tells them they aren’t. Denver’s defense is good but the secondary has dropped off.
Pick: Bengals 28, Broncos 23
CARDINALS (7-8) AT RAMS (9-6)
Saturday, 5:10 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), NFL Network
Line: Rams by 5½. O/U: 48½.
The Rams owe them one after a beat down earlier this season. The Cardinals have been eliminated, and running back James Conner sat out the second half Sunday with a knee injury. Rams keep rolling.
Pick: Rams 28, Cardinals 22
COWBOYS (7-8) AT EAGLES (12-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX), NFL Ticket
Line: Eagles by 10½. O/U: 43½.
Cooper Rush is doing a much better job than many people expected. Availability of Jalen Hurts is important but, either way, Saquon Barkley will be able to do damage on the ground.
Pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 23
JETS (4-11) AT BILLS (12-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), NFL Ticket
Line: Bills by 9½. O/U: 47½.
If the Bills get James Cook going, they can rack up the yards on that Jets defense. Buffalo knows it has to get going before the playoffs. AFC East opponents so it could be close for a while.
Pick: Bills 27, Jets 20
RAIDERS (3-12) AT SAINTS (5-10)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Saints by 2½. O/U: 39½.
The Saints were on wrong end of the only shutout this season. They can’t generate any consistent offense with quarterback Spencer Rattler and that porous line. The Raiders aren’t much but can win this.
Pick: Raiders 21, Saints 17
COLTS (7-8) AT GIANTS (2-13)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Colts by 7½. O/U: 40½.
Somehow, the Colts scored 38 points with Anthony Richardson completing just seven of 11 passes. Weird. Giants aren’t terrible against the run, but Jonathan Taylor is a handful.
Pick: Colts 24, Giants 21
TITANS (3-12) AT JAGUARS (3-12)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Jaguars by 1½. O/U: 40½.
Bad teams might result in an interesting game. The Jaguars are coming off back-to-back losses to the Jets and Raiders. Give it to Tennessee. The defense is due for a bounce-back game.
Pick: Titans 23, Jaguars 20
PANTHERS (4-11) AT BUCCANEERS (8-7)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Buccaneers by 7½. O/U: 49½.
The Panthers are feeling good. They’re coming off a big overtime win over Arizona, and they took the Buccaneers to overtime a few weeks ago. Tampa Bay needs this one more.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 23
DOLPHINS (7-8) AT BROWNS (3-12)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Dolphins by 6½. O/U: 40½.
This still matters to the Dolphins. The Browns are done. If Cleveland goes back to Jameis Winston, anything can happen. Miami has won five of seven and will find a way on the road.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Browns 18
PACKERS (11-4) AT VIKINGS (13-2)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)
Line: Vikings by 1½. O/U: 48½.
Should be a great game. The Vikings have so much going on offensively at the moment and Sam Darnold is redefining himself. Packers need big plays to combat that Minnesota blitz.
Pick: Vikings 28, Packers 24
FALCONS (8-7) AT COMMANDERS (10-5)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)
Line: Commanders by 4½. O/U: 46½.
The Commanders are going to load up against the run and make Michael Penix beat them. It’s going to be hard for that Falcons defense to hang with Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin & Co.
Pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 20
LIONS (13-2) AT 49ERS (6-9)
Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Channel 7, ESPN
Line: Lions by 3½. O/U: 51½.
The 49ers are out of pieces. So many injuries. Their defensive line doesn’t look the same, and those Lions blockers will control the line of scrimmage. Jared Goff returns home for a big game.
Pick: Lions 35, 49ers 24
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
