Analysts certainly picked their favorite S&P 500 stocks for 2024. Too bad they whiffed on 90% of them.
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Beating The Market: How To Find Outperforming Stocks
All but one of analysts’ top picks for price gains in 2024, including Moderna (MRNA), First Solar (FSLR) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR), lagged the S&P 500’s 23.8% gain this year, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSurge. The only stock analysts picked as a favorite in 2024 that lived up to its billing was AI giant Nvidia (NVDA).
Looks like analysts would have been better off just buying the Magnificent Seven.
The Biggest S&P 500 Disappointments
Analysts’ hopes for solar power gear maker First Solar were sky high coming into 2024. They thought the stock would soar 58%, making it the No. 1 S&P 500 stock in 2024.
That didn’t happen. Shares of First Solar gained just 3.4%. The stock is finishing the year with a moribund RS Rating of just 19. And it’s not a fundamental issue. Analysts think profit will rise 71% in 2024 and 56% in 2025. But following the election, prospects for clean energy have dimmed.
Moderna is even more disappointing. Analysts thought the vaccine maker’s shares would rise 45% in 2024. But instead they fell 60% to an RS Rating of 3. It is expected to keep losing money in 2024 and 2025. And the anti-vaccine stance of the new Trump Administration isn’t likely to help either.
Got It Right On Nvidia
Analysts correctly forecast Nvidia to be a top S&P 500 stock in 2024. But even they underestimated its power.
Shares rocketed 178% in 2024. That handily topped the 37.3% rally predicted by analysts. The company’s profit forecasts are off the charts. Analysts think EPS will rise 127% in 2025 and 50% in 2026. That bolsters the stock’s 98 Composite Rating.
Will analysts’ picks for the top S&P 500 in 2025 be closer to the mark? Guess we’ll find out soon.
Analysts’ Top S&P 500 Picks For 2024 Mostly Missed
| Company | Symbol | Rally forecast | 2024 % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar | FSLR | 58.1% | 3.4% |
| Moderna | MRNA | 45% | -60.4% |
| Bio-Rad Laboratories | BIO | 44.7% | 1.1% |
| Schlumberger | SLB | 43.7% | -27.3% |
| Wynn Resorts | WYNN | 42.7% | -5.8% |
| Halliburton | HAL | 42.3% | -25.4% |
| Caesars Entertainment | CZR | 40.8% | -30.0% |
| Las Vegas Sands | LVS | 40.3% | 3.0% |
| APA | APA | 39.2% | -37.5% |
| Nvidia | NVDA | 37.3% | 177.6% |
| S&P 500 | SPY | 137.3% | 23.8% |
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Market Surge
Follow Matt Krantz on X (Twitter) @mattkrantz
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