2024 Patriots betting guide: Win total, division odds and more originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The New England Patriots will begin their 2024 NFL season on Sunday with a Week 1 road game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Patriots are not facing high expectations this year. New England sank to the bottom of the AFC in 2023 and owned the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The team selected North Carolina star Drake Maye to be its next franchise quarterback, but it’s unknown when he’ll make his regular season debut.
It’s also a new era for the Patriots coaching staff. Bill Belichick — the greatest head coach in league history — departed in January, ushering in the Jerod Mayo era. Belichick was the head coach for the last 24 seasons.
What do oddsmakers think of the Patriots entering a new season?
Here’s a betting guide to the 2024 Patriots (all odds via Fanatics Sportsbook, as of Sept. 3).
To win the Super Bowl
How far have the Patriots fallen? Well, not too long ago they typically entered the season with the best odds (or at least top three) to win the Super Bowl. This year, they are tied for dead last. The Patriots and Carolina Panthers are the two biggest longshots to win the Lombardi Trophy. Both are at +30000 odds.
To win the AFC championship
The Patriots finished at the bottom of the AFC standings with a 4-13 record last season, and oddsmakers expect them to finish there again in 2024. In fact, the next-closest team to the bottom of the AFC title odds is the Denver Broncos at +8000.
To win the AFC East Division
The Patriots won the AFC East 17 times in a 19-year span from 2001 through 2019. That run came to a screeching halt in 2020 when Tom Brady left to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in free agency. His departure allowed the Buffalo Bills to take control and win four straight division titles. The Bills’ reign is being challenged by the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, both of whom are expected to make the playoffs this season. And with a healthy Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Jets are actually favored to win their first division crown since 2002.
It wouldn’t be shocking if all three reached the postseason, with the Patriots finishing last for the second straight year. In fact, the last time the Patriots finished last in the division in back-to-back years was 1999 and 2000.
Regular season win total
-
Over 4.5 wins (-140)
-
Under 4.5 wins (+110)
The last time the Patriots won four or fewer games in consecutive seasons was 1967 through 1970, which were the final years of the franchise being called the Boston Patriots. The team has had plenty of bad years after 1970, but not two disastrous ones in a row.
The Patriots have one of the league’s toughest schedules, especially if you consider the quality of opposing quarterbacks they’ll play. The first six games are, in order, against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins and Texans. All of those teams except the Seahawks are expected to make the playoffs.
The Patriots could always surprise. The defense should be pretty good, and the offense couldn’t be much worse than last season when it ranked tied for last in scoring at 13.9 points per game. And, of course, the NFL is always unpredictable. Did anyone expect the Patriots to beat the Bills last season? No, but it happened.
Fewest regular season wins
The Panthers play in an easier division than the Patriots, so it’s not surprising that New England is the favorite to finish with the worst record. This wouldn’t be a horrible scenario for the Patriots, though, because finishing in last place means you get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
To make the playoffs
The AFC is super competitive. There are a lot of good teams in this conference. The AFC North or AFC East could potentially send three teams to the postseason.
Double-digit wins was required to earn a wild card playoff spot in the AFC last season. The Bengals, Jaguars and Colts all went 9-8 and didn’t make it.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
-
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: +125
-
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders: +550
-
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals: +600
-
Bo Nix, QB, Broncos: +950
-
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: +1400
Maye is not going to begin the season as the starting quarterback, which could make it tough for him to win this award because the four players with better odds will all start Week 1. And unlike MVP, this award doesn’t always go to a quarterback. Just four of the last 10 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners were quarterbacks.
Rookie with most regular season passing yards
-
Caleb Williams, Bears: -135
-
Jayden Daniels, Commanders: +300
-
Bo Nix, Broncos: +400
-
Drake Maye, Patriots: +800
Again, Maye not being the Week 1 starter puts him at a huge disadvantage to lead all rookies in passing yards. Williams, Daniels and Nix are all opening the season as the starter. Williams has several quality wideouts to target, including veterans Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore, as well as 2024 first-round pick Rome Odunze.
Coach of the Year
What would have to happen for Mayo to win this award? Reaching the playoffs would be a good start, although it’s hard to imagine that scenario unfolding.
