“Thursday Night Football” started off on a hot note this season (and if you’ve watched any TNF over the years, that’s a big deal), and the good times will keep on rolling as the Buffalo Bills travel to Florida to take on the division-rival Miami Dolphins. Both teams are 1-0 on the young season.
Let’s go to the tale of the (fantasy) tape.
Dolphins vs. Bills fantasy breakdown
Josh Allen reminded everyone as to why he was the No. 1-ranked QB during fantasy draft season in Week 1. The dual-threat QB totaled four touchdowns against the Cardinals, two on the ground and two through the air, highlighted by a magnificent example of hero ball.
Of course, those two rushing TDs hampered the production of James Cook who, despite 103 total yards of offense, was held out of the end zone — a typical flaw in his fantasy profile. While Cook does have the talent and opportunity to break off a long touchdown run or catch a score through the air, fantasy managers are hoping this is the game Cook finally gets some goal-line rushing attempts.
Back to the air, the Bills’ pass-catching puzzle remains just that as we head into tonight’s game. The biggest disappointment from Week 1 has to be Dalton Kincaid. Everyone is waiting for the second-year tight end to break out this season, and what a matchup to do it in the Cardinals for Week 1, a defense that has been abysmal at defending tight ends the past few seasons.
Instead, Kincaid caught just one measly catch; Dawson Knox caught one too. Nonetheless, I remain optimistic about Kincaid; his snap share in Week 1 was elite, so fantasy managers shouldn’t be worried about his one-catch start to the 2024 season just yet. Yet, you have to at least ponder the ceilings of Bills’ pass catchers. This is an extremely run-heavy offense that lives and dies by the heroics of Allen. Perhaps we just won’t get a No. 1 target here. Thankfully, a Week 2 matchup against the high-flying (swimming?) Dolphins should provide more clues.
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And oh, did those Dolphins fly — and swim — in Week 1. Both Tyreek Hill (12-7-130-1) and Jaylen Waddle (5-5-109) surpassed the century mark in a game that felt a lot more high-scoring than the 20-17 finish would have you believe. Yet, perhaps the most interesting development is that of second-year running back, De’Von Achane.
Achane led the Dolphins in rush attempts with 10, reaching double-digit carries on a day when Raheem Mostert (who has already been ruled out for this game) left with a chest injury. Achane mustered just 24 yards on the ground, but he would ultimately finish as the seventh-highest-scoring running back in half-PPR. How, you ask? By the fantasy RB cheat code, of course.
Achane was third on the team in total receiving, catching all seven of his targets (second behind Hill) for 76 yards (third behind Waddle). Achane also received the Dolphins’ one goal-line carry, which he converted into a touchdown.
Catches and touchdowns — that’s what we want from our running backs.
Of course, Mostert did leave this game, and Waddle was in and out of the game with injuries as well. Even Achane would suffer an ankle injury that ultimately has him as a game-time decision for tonight’s matchup. But how could you not get excited about this usage? It seems natural that the Dolphins would give the younger, fresher Achane more work this season to help him continue to grow as a do-it-all weapon while also maintaining a 32-year-old Mostert for the totality of the season.
The questions we all want to be answered tonight is, with Mostert injured, just how big will Achane’s role be? Will Jeff Wilson Jr. and/or Jaylen Wright (who will likely be activated) play the 2023 Achane role? Or will Achane stun us all with an unexpected workhorse outing?
But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves — fantasy managers will have to keep their fingers crossed Achane is even cleared to play. He’s currently questionable, but there’s optimism he will be fine to play tonight. If he’s ruled out instead, Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely lead the charge out of the backfield, but the rookie Wright still has upside in deeper leagues in what should be a fun game.
Fantasy lineup advice
This game has the second-highest O/U of the Week 2 slate, so we’re expecting a fantasy carnival (of course, TNF and divisional matchups have been known to deliver some … unwelcome surprises before) featuring two of the best offenses in the NFL. So basically, I don’t have to tell you that you’re starting Josh Allen, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Tua Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
But there is one player on the fringes of startability whom I believe is wheels-up in 12+ team leagues this week.
START: Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
Remember when I said the Bills might not have a true No. 1 target this season? Well, maybe he just isn’t ready yet.
Coleman finished his professional debut with four catches for 51 yards — not bad for a rookie receiver many criticized for being a one-trick pony post-draft, but not anything to write home about. But not only did Coleman lead the Bills in targets (21.7% share among Bills’ WR targets) on a day they scored 34 points, but he also led the Bills in routes run in Week 1; if you had told me that he’d lead the team before Week 1, I wouldn’t have believed you.
That’s right, Coleman was out there running ahead of Dalton Kincaid (the second-year TE whom everyone thought would be the obvious recipient of the targets vacated by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis), Khalil Shakir (the only holdover WR on the team who’d caught passes from Allen before this season) and Curtis Samuel (Samuel caught just two passes on two targets for 15 yards) in the passing game.
Sure, all of Coleman’s snaps and routes came outside, which limits his production somewhat at this point in his career, but a big-play ceiling — which is his bread-and-butter as a 6’3″ X-receiver — remains, as we saw in Week 1 when he out-muscled the defender for a 28-yard catch.
While I do expect the Bills to get Kincaid more involved moving forward, this game should (ideally) be another back-and-forth affair as both Week 1 games were for these respective teams. That’ll give Coleman more potential for another splash play or two. And we just saw another 2024 rookie WR in Brian Thomas Jr. (4-4-47-1 Week 1 line) have success against this beatable Dolphins secondary (in fact, Thomas did a lot of his work against Jalen Ramsey).
If you’re chasing upside at receiver in Week 2, consider the young Coleman, who no doubt moved the needle in his favor in both his quarterback’s and coaching staff’s eyes after his debut performance.
Just don’t break the cardinal fantasy rule of starting a Thursday receiver in your flex spot!
