Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, I’m highlighting six players with bust potential in Week 2.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
It was a solid Week 1 debut for second-year QB C.J. Stroud, as he threw two touchdowns and no interceptions — both of them going to new Texans captain, WR Stefon Diggs. There’s no doubt he has the chance to continue on that streak of efficiency in Week 2 given the talent surrounding him at wide receiver, but a matchup against the Bears has me looking elsewhere if I’m seeking a high-upside play in Week 2.
The Bears have perhaps one of the more underrated secondaries in the league right now (and defenses in general), with star cornerback Jaylon Johnson at the center of it all, FA signing Kevin Byard at safety and Tremaine Edmunds — a capable linebacker in coverage who posted four interceptions (including one pick-six) just last season.
For as many weapons as the Texans have, the Bears could match up pretty well to slow them down, which has me tempering expectations for Stroud in Week 2.
Heat check 🔥 Stroud is nearly impossible to sit with the personnel he’s working with, but even at home, the Bears defense could give this offense some trouble, lowering his projected ceiling in Week 2.
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Fantasy managers thought they’d potentially found a steal in drafts with Zamir White, who was seemingly poised to be the lead back in a run-first offense under Antonio Pierce. However, if Week 1 was any indication, it seems that things are much closer to a running back by committee than anyone predicted.
Though White saw 72.2% of the running back rush attempts in Week 1, Mattison outsnapped him 13-2 on third-down plays, seriously limiting his role. By the end of the game, Mattison outplayed White altogether with 60% of the offensive snap share, totaling 62 yards on nine touches to White’s 46 yards on 15 touches.
Neither of them were particularly efficient to open the year, but Mattison was the back they leaned on in their fourth-quarter comeback attempt in Week 1. It seems likely that the team will again be playing from behind against the Ravens, who are favored by more than a touchdown in Week 2.
Heat check 🔥 Given the projected game script of this matchup, this could be a game where Alexander Mattison dominates the snaps. White barely approaches “flex” territory for me heading into Week 2; I’ll sit him for almost any other available option. Meanwhile, Mattison is a decent sleeper, especially in full-PPR scoring formats.
I’ve been hyping up Zack Moss as the RB1 of the Cincinnati Bengals over Chase Brown all offseason long, and the usage we saw in Week 1 backs it up. Moss played 65% of the offensive snaps and no snaps on special teams, while Brown played 33% of the offensive snaps and 43% of snaps on special teams. Not only did he have six more carries than Brown, Moss also saw the team’s only carry inside the five-yard line, converting it for a score.
Moss was more efficient than Brown on the ground in Week 1, but it’s possible that the run game won’t be much of a factor at all against the Kansas City Chiefs if the score runs up quickly. The Bengals are 5.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs in Week 2.
Heat check 🔥 There’s still plenty of time for the backfield to shift over the course of the season. However, until we see a shift in usage between Moss and Brown (or see a shift in efficiency between the two), it’s best to leave Brown on the bench.
There may not be a more perplexing pass attack in the league than what the Indianapolis Colts have with second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson’s passing game is a volatile one. One moment, Richardson misses a total easy layup over the middle of the field; the next minute, he does this:
Despite finishing the week with 212 passing yards (2 TD, 1 INT), Richardson and his receivers connected on just nine total passes for a 47.4% completion percentage. It was somehow both an incredibly efficient and inefficient day for him, having attempted just 19 total passes to produce that stat line in the first place. That gives me some concern for all Colts’ pass catchers for the moment, but especially Pittman Jr., who is the only real “must-start” option in this offense.
In Week 2, the Colts will head on the road to face the Green Bay Packers in the hostile environment of Lambeau Field against some solid pieces in the secondary between Jaire Alexander, Xavier McKinney, Eric Stokes and rookie Javon Bullard. I still think this unit is a bit better than the Week 1 box score indicated after going up against Jalen Hurts and his talented group of receivers. Richardson also dispersed targets fairly evenly between rookie AD Mitchell, Alec Pierce and Pittman.
Heat check 🔥 Based on the upside of Anthony Richardson as a passer, it’s going to be darn near impossible to sit his WR1. However, if Week 1 is any indication, he’s more of a boom/bust option until this passing offense finds some stability, especially in a more challenging environment like Lambeau.
Sutton may have led the Broncos with a whopping 11 targets in Week 1, but all signs point to this being a particularly challenging week for the vet. The Broncos will not just have to overcome the bumps and bruises of the offense under rookie QB Bo Nix, who threw for 138 total yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs in his NFL debut last week. They’ll also have to overcome a pretty stout Pittsburgh Steelers secondary coming off a two-interception outing of their own against Kirk Cousins.
In Week 2, Sutton is set to face one of the league’s up-and-coming shutdown cornerbacks in Joey Porter Jr. Despite matching up against talented WR Drake London for most of the game, Porter Jr. allowed just a single 7-yard reception in 22 coverage snaps, averaging just 0.8 yards of separation in coverage on average, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Heat check 🔥 It’s pretty difficult to envision any circumstance where you should start Sutton this week, regardless of your league’s scoring settings. Based on what we saw from the Broncos’ passing offense in Week 1, the ceiling is simply not high enough for Sutton in this matchup to justify his low floor.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may have just signed Pat Freiermuth to a long-term extension just ahead of Week 1, but if that first outing was any indication, they haven’t fully figured out how to integrate him into Arthur Smith’s offense just yet. He caught all four of his targets in Week 1, but for a mere 27 receiving yards — just 18 more than backup TE MyCole Pruitt.
Part of that lack of total production had to do with avoidance of the middle of the field, which OC Arthur Smith admitted was by design, but either way, there are some reasons to fade Freiermuth in Week 2. There’s already a clear emphasis on establishing the run mixed with deep shots for George Pickens, and this game script could favor just that. The Steelers are 2.5-point road favorites, and the matchup has the lowest projected point total from Vegas on the week at 36.5.
Heat check 🔥 Even in a week with several bumps and bruises at the tight end position between David Njoku and Jake Ferguson, I’d prefer to find other options. Consider guys like Rams TE Colby Parkinson or Saints TE Juwan Johnson as intriguing pivot plays.
